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01 April 2021 | Story Andre Damons | Photo istock
The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave and people’s behaviour will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.
Similar trends as during the festive season of 2020 – when the behaviour of people was driving COVID-19 transmissions and played a role in the second wave – have emerged due to the Easter holidays, and may contribute to a third wave. 
“This means that we can already anticipate gatherings and a higher rate of travel during the next three weeks. As a result of this as well as non-adherence to the non-pharmaceutical interventions, we can anticipate this event to serve as a catalyst for transmission.” 

“If nothing is done to prevent this, it is anticipated that the Free State will see a steady increase and a potential third wave between 17 April and 26 June,” says Herkulaas Combrink, the interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP).

The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave

According to him, the vulnerability and population density dynamics in each province, the behaviour of people, and the social norms between communities must be taken into consideration to contextualise the impact of Easter on disease transmission – especially when looking at SARS-CoV-2.

For the Free State, the Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst that will lead up to the third wave, says Combrink. “If no interventions are put in place and people do not adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of the disease, then we will see a steady climb and increase in cases up until that time. This means that the behaviour of people will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.”

Reducing the severity of the third wave

According to Combrink, who is involved in risk communication and vaccine analytics with other members of the UFS, we may be able to reduce the severity of the third wave if the variant remains the same and the vaccination roll-out plan is in full effect. It will also help if the correct number of people are vaccinated, the general population adheres to PPE and mitigation strategies, and people practise the appropriate behaviour as indicated in all official COVID-19 communication, including the UFS COVID-19 information page.  

According to Prof Felicity Burt and Dr Sabeehah Vawda, both virology experts in the UFS Division of Virology, the current vaccination programme is aimed at reducing the severity of the disease among health-care workers. Prevention of further waves of infection through vaccination will require sufficient coverage to induce at least 70% herd immunity in the country. Currently, no country has achieved that level of herd immunity through vaccine programmes – this is the long-term goal of vaccination. 

“Irrespective of the government’s vaccination programmes and schedules and a virus that may mutate and perhaps become more virulent, the fundamental ways to protect yourself remain unchanged, namely social distancing, wearing of masks, and regular hand washing. People need to realise that this ‘new normal’ is going to be with us for a while and remains the best defence against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses and even provides protection against other respiratory pathogens.”

Vaccines and mutations

The exact frequency of mutations differs between different types of viruses, but generally, SARS-CoV-2 is known to have a slower ‘mutation rate’ than other RNA viruses because of its built-in ‘proofreading’ enzyme. The true mutation rate of a virus is difficult to measure, as the majority of mutations will be lethal to the virus. Irrespective, very few have actually resulted in clinical impact. 

“This highlights the rather gradual process of mutation, so vaccines should remain effective or at least partially effective in the near future, as they elicit antibodies that target different parts of the virus. Continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is necessary and ongoing to monitor for changes that may impact vaccines and diagnostic tests,” the experts say.

According to Prof Burt and Dr Vawda, scientists are continuously monitoring the situation to detect if the current vaccines would remain effective and to try to adjust them accordingly. How or when the virus will mutate in a clinically significant way is unknown, so at this point, the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against severe disease and hence have application in reducing significant disease. 

“There remains a lot unknown about the extent of protection and the duration of protection, and it is obviously hoped that the vaccine’s immune response in the human body would be able to provide at least some protection or decrease the possibility of severe disease even against potentially newer variants.”

Dr Sabeehah Vawda is employed by the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) as a pathologist in virology and by the UFS as a Senior Lecturer in the Division of Virology.
Dr Sabeehah Vawda is employed by the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) as a pathologist in virology and by the UFS as a Senior Lecturer in the Division of Virology.
Prof Felicity is an expert in arbovirology in the Division of Virology and holds a South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research.
Prof Felicity is an expert in arbovirology in the Division of Virology and holds a South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research.
Herkulaas Combrink is the Interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria.
Herkulaas Combrink is the Interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria.

News Archive

New challenges for animal science discussed
2006-04-04

Some of the guests attending the congress were from the left Dr Heinz Meissner (honorary president of the South African Society for Animal Science (SASAS) and senior manager at the Animal Production Institute of the Agricultural Research Council), Mr Paul Bevan (President of SASAS) and Prof Magda Fourie (Vice-Rector:  Academic Planning at the UFS).
Photo: Lacea Loader

New challenges for animal science discussed  

The South African Society for Animal Science (SASAS) is presenting its 41st Congress at the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Main Campus in Bloemfontein. 

The congress started yesterday and will run until Thursday 6 April 2006.  The theme is New challenges for the animal science industries.

It is one of the largest congresses in the 45 years since SASAS was founded in 1961.  Among the delegates 12 African countries are represented, with the biggest delegation from Kenya.  Delegates are also from the United States of America, Iran, Turkey, Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal and African countries like Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana.

“Many of our members play an important role in the training of animal scientists at universities.  The congress is specifically industry orientated so that scientists can interact with farmers through the respective producer organisations,” said Prof HO de Waal, Chairperson of the organising committee and lecturer at the UFS Department of Animal, Wildlife and Grassland Sciences.

According to Dr Heinz Meissner, honorary president of SASAS and a senior manager at the Animal Production Institute of the Agricultural Research Council, the National Livestock Strategy (NLS) Plan clarifies the role and responsibility of the livestock sector. 

“Through this strategy we need to focus on enhancing equitable access and participation in livestock agriculture, improve global competitiveness and profitability of the livestock sector and ensure that the ventures implemented do not over utilise our resources,” said Dr Meissner.

In her welcoming address, Prof Magda Fourie, Vice-Rector:  Academic Planning at the UFS highlighted the related challenges that the UFS will be focusing on specifically over the next five years.  “We have identified five strategic clusters that represent broad areas of excellence in research and post-graduate education.  Two of these are food production, quality and safety for Africa and sustainable development,” she said.

“The food safety and security cluster will focus on the production of food in all its varieties within the African context, encompassing the entire value chain – from production to consumption and nutrition related issues.  This would include a strong emphasis on sustainable production systems,” she said.

According to Prof Fourie the rural development cluster will engage in questions around the role of higher education in sustainable development.  “One of the focus areas in this strategic cluster pertains to sustainable livelihoods.  It refers to a way of approaching development that incorporates all aspects of human livelihoods and means by which people obtain them,” she said.

Prof Fourie said that the challenges we are facing such as food production can only be effectively addressed through collaborative efforts.  “That is why it is important that collaboration takes place between different scientific disciplines, researchers, institutions and countries who are confronted with similar difficulties,” she said.

According to Prof de Waal the congress will give key role players a unique opportunity to present a profile of what they perceive an animal scientist should be and state their specific requirement regarding the animal sciences and its applications. 

“In this way we can determine what the industry’s needs are and we can re-align our curriculum to suit these needs,” said Prof de Waal.

During the next two days, various areas of interest will be discussed.  This includes ruminant and monogastric nutrition, animal physiology, beef, dairy, sheep and ostrich breeding and sustainable farming covering the range from commercial to the small-scale farming level.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel:   (051) 401-2584
Cell:  083 645 2454
E-mail:  loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
4 April 2006

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