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01 April 2021 | Story Andre Damons | Photo istock
The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave and people’s behaviour will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.
Similar trends as during the festive season of 2020 – when the behaviour of people was driving COVID-19 transmissions and played a role in the second wave – have emerged due to the Easter holidays, and may contribute to a third wave. 
“This means that we can already anticipate gatherings and a higher rate of travel during the next three weeks. As a result of this as well as non-adherence to the non-pharmaceutical interventions, we can anticipate this event to serve as a catalyst for transmission.” 

“If nothing is done to prevent this, it is anticipated that the Free State will see a steady increase and a potential third wave between 17 April and 26 June,” says Herkulaas Combrink, the interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP).

The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave

According to him, the vulnerability and population density dynamics in each province, the behaviour of people, and the social norms between communities must be taken into consideration to contextualise the impact of Easter on disease transmission – especially when looking at SARS-CoV-2.

For the Free State, the Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst that will lead up to the third wave, says Combrink. “If no interventions are put in place and people do not adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of the disease, then we will see a steady climb and increase in cases up until that time. This means that the behaviour of people will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.”

Reducing the severity of the third wave

According to Combrink, who is involved in risk communication and vaccine analytics with other members of the UFS, we may be able to reduce the severity of the third wave if the variant remains the same and the vaccination roll-out plan is in full effect. It will also help if the correct number of people are vaccinated, the general population adheres to PPE and mitigation strategies, and people practise the appropriate behaviour as indicated in all official COVID-19 communication, including the UFS COVID-19 information page.  

According to Prof Felicity Burt and Dr Sabeehah Vawda, both virology experts in the UFS Division of Virology, the current vaccination programme is aimed at reducing the severity of the disease among health-care workers. Prevention of further waves of infection through vaccination will require sufficient coverage to induce at least 70% herd immunity in the country. Currently, no country has achieved that level of herd immunity through vaccine programmes – this is the long-term goal of vaccination. 

“Irrespective of the government’s vaccination programmes and schedules and a virus that may mutate and perhaps become more virulent, the fundamental ways to protect yourself remain unchanged, namely social distancing, wearing of masks, and regular hand washing. People need to realise that this ‘new normal’ is going to be with us for a while and remains the best defence against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses and even provides protection against other respiratory pathogens.”

Vaccines and mutations

The exact frequency of mutations differs between different types of viruses, but generally, SARS-CoV-2 is known to have a slower ‘mutation rate’ than other RNA viruses because of its built-in ‘proofreading’ enzyme. The true mutation rate of a virus is difficult to measure, as the majority of mutations will be lethal to the virus. Irrespective, very few have actually resulted in clinical impact. 

“This highlights the rather gradual process of mutation, so vaccines should remain effective or at least partially effective in the near future, as they elicit antibodies that target different parts of the virus. Continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is necessary and ongoing to monitor for changes that may impact vaccines and diagnostic tests,” the experts say.

According to Prof Burt and Dr Vawda, scientists are continuously monitoring the situation to detect if the current vaccines would remain effective and to try to adjust them accordingly. How or when the virus will mutate in a clinically significant way is unknown, so at this point, the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against severe disease and hence have application in reducing significant disease. 

“There remains a lot unknown about the extent of protection and the duration of protection, and it is obviously hoped that the vaccine’s immune response in the human body would be able to provide at least some protection or decrease the possibility of severe disease even against potentially newer variants.”

Dr Sabeehah Vawda is employed by the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) as a pathologist in virology and by the UFS as a Senior Lecturer in the Division of Virology.
Dr Sabeehah Vawda is employed by the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) as a pathologist in virology and by the UFS as a Senior Lecturer in the Division of Virology.
Prof Felicity is an expert in arbovirology in the Division of Virology and holds a South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research.
Prof Felicity is an expert in arbovirology in the Division of Virology and holds a South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research.
Herkulaas Combrink is the Interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria.
Herkulaas Combrink is the Interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria.

News Archive

UFS receives R13,7 Million for Research into Prehistoric Organisms
2007-03-27

Some of the guests attending the launch of the research contract are: Dr Siyabulela Ntutela (Deputy Director: Biotechnology at the Department of Science and Technology), Dr Godfrey Netswera (Manager of Thuthuka and the Support Programme at the National Research Foundation (NRF)), Dr Esta van Heerden (Platform Manager and lecturer at the Department of Microbial, Biochemical and Food Biotechnology at the UFS), Mr Butana Mboniswa (Chief Executive Officer of BioPAD), and Mr Vuyisele Phehani (Portfolio Manager for BioPAD).
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

The University of the Free State (UFS) has been awarded a massive R13,7 million contract to conduct research into prehistoric micro-organisms which live under extreme conditions, for example in mineshafts.

This is one of the biggest research contracts awarded to the UFS in recent years.

The biotechnology research contract was awarded to the UFS by BioPAD, a South African biotechnology company that brokers partnerships between researchers, entrepreneurs, business, government and other stakeholders to promote innovation and create sustainable biotechnology businesses.

The project is endorsed by the Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation (NRF), which contributes to the bursaries of the 17 postgraduate students on the programme.

The contract involves the establishment of a Platform for Metagenomics -  a technique which allows researchers to extract the DNA from microbes in their natural environment and investigate it in a laboratory. 

“Through this platform we will be able to understand deepmine microbial populations
and their potential application in the search for life in outer space.  It is most likely
that, if life were to be found on other planets in our solar system, it would probably
resemble that which existed millions of years ago on earth.  Apart from all this, these
organisms have unique properties one can exploit in biotechnological application for
South Africa and its community,” said Dr Esta van Heerden, platform manager and
lecturer at the UFS Department of Microbial, Biochemical and Food Biotechnology.
She is assisted by her collegues, Prof. Derek Litthauer and Dr Lizelle Piater.

“The platform aims to tap into the unique genetic material in South African mines
which will lead to the discovery of new genes and their products.  These new and unique products will find application in the medical field (anti-cancer, anti-bacterial en anti-viral cures), the industrial sector (nanotechnology, commercial washing agents and the food industry), environmental sector (pollution management, demolition of harmful metals and other toxic waste),” said Dr Van Heerden.

According to Dr Van Heerden, the Metagenomics Platforms stems from the Life in
Extreme Environments (LExEN) programme which was started in 1994 by Princeton
University in the United States of America (USA) in South African mines with grants
from among others the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and
the National Science Foundation (NSF) in the USA.  Other international collaborators
on the project include Geosynec Consultants Inc. (USA), Oak Ridge National
Laboratory (USA), the University of Tennessee (USA) and in South Africa the
Universities of the Witwatersrand, North West and Limpopo and companies like BHP
Billiton, MINTEK and mining companies like Harmony, Gold Fields and AngloGold
Ashanti.

The research field laboratory of the Metagenomics Platform, which was situated in
Glen Harvey, was moved to the Main Campus of the UFS in Bloemfontein.  “In this
way the university has become the central hub for all research programmes.  We are
also the liaison between the LExEN programme and the various mining companies
involved,” said Dr Van Heerden.  The new laboratory was introduced during the
launch of the research contract.

“Our decision to commit BioPAD to this project stems from the company’s commitment to advance human capacity development to strengthen South Africa’s research infrastructure.  It is also part of our aim to create and protect intellectual property,” said Mr Butana Mboniswa, Chief Executive Officer of BioPAD.

Talking on behalf of the UFS senior management, Prof. Teuns Verschoor, Vice-Rector
of Academic Operations, said that the university shares the excitement to be part of
the exploration of unknown forms of life, the discovery of new genes and
their products and in applying newly gained knowledge to better understand our
universe.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Assistant Director: Media Liaison 
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl@ufs.ac.za
27 March 2007

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