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01 April 2021 | Story Andre Damons | Photo istock
The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave and people’s behaviour will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.
Similar trends as during the festive season of 2020 – when the behaviour of people was driving COVID-19 transmissions and played a role in the second wave – have emerged due to the Easter holidays, and may contribute to a third wave. 
“This means that we can already anticipate gatherings and a higher rate of travel during the next three weeks. As a result of this as well as non-adherence to the non-pharmaceutical interventions, we can anticipate this event to serve as a catalyst for transmission.” 

“If nothing is done to prevent this, it is anticipated that the Free State will see a steady increase and a potential third wave between 17 April and 26 June,” says Herkulaas Combrink, the interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP).

The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave

According to him, the vulnerability and population density dynamics in each province, the behaviour of people, and the social norms between communities must be taken into consideration to contextualise the impact of Easter on disease transmission – especially when looking at SARS-CoV-2.

For the Free State, the Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst that will lead up to the third wave, says Combrink. “If no interventions are put in place and people do not adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of the disease, then we will see a steady climb and increase in cases up until that time. This means that the behaviour of people will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.”

Reducing the severity of the third wave

According to Combrink, who is involved in risk communication and vaccine analytics with other members of the UFS, we may be able to reduce the severity of the third wave if the variant remains the same and the vaccination roll-out plan is in full effect. It will also help if the correct number of people are vaccinated, the general population adheres to PPE and mitigation strategies, and people practise the appropriate behaviour as indicated in all official COVID-19 communication, including the UFS COVID-19 information page.  

According to Prof Felicity Burt and Dr Sabeehah Vawda, both virology experts in the UFS Division of Virology, the current vaccination programme is aimed at reducing the severity of the disease among health-care workers. Prevention of further waves of infection through vaccination will require sufficient coverage to induce at least 70% herd immunity in the country. Currently, no country has achieved that level of herd immunity through vaccine programmes – this is the long-term goal of vaccination. 

“Irrespective of the government’s vaccination programmes and schedules and a virus that may mutate and perhaps become more virulent, the fundamental ways to protect yourself remain unchanged, namely social distancing, wearing of masks, and regular hand washing. People need to realise that this ‘new normal’ is going to be with us for a while and remains the best defence against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses and even provides protection against other respiratory pathogens.”

Vaccines and mutations

The exact frequency of mutations differs between different types of viruses, but generally, SARS-CoV-2 is known to have a slower ‘mutation rate’ than other RNA viruses because of its built-in ‘proofreading’ enzyme. The true mutation rate of a virus is difficult to measure, as the majority of mutations will be lethal to the virus. Irrespective, very few have actually resulted in clinical impact. 

“This highlights the rather gradual process of mutation, so vaccines should remain effective or at least partially effective in the near future, as they elicit antibodies that target different parts of the virus. Continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is necessary and ongoing to monitor for changes that may impact vaccines and diagnostic tests,” the experts say.

According to Prof Burt and Dr Vawda, scientists are continuously monitoring the situation to detect if the current vaccines would remain effective and to try to adjust them accordingly. How or when the virus will mutate in a clinically significant way is unknown, so at this point, the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against severe disease and hence have application in reducing significant disease. 

“There remains a lot unknown about the extent of protection and the duration of protection, and it is obviously hoped that the vaccine’s immune response in the human body would be able to provide at least some protection or decrease the possibility of severe disease even against potentially newer variants.”

Dr Sabeehah Vawda is employed by the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) as a pathologist in virology and by the UFS as a Senior Lecturer in the Division of Virology.
Dr Sabeehah Vawda is employed by the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) as a pathologist in virology and by the UFS as a Senior Lecturer in the Division of Virology.
Prof Felicity is an expert in arbovirology in the Division of Virology and holds a South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research.
Prof Felicity is an expert in arbovirology in the Division of Virology and holds a South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research.
Herkulaas Combrink is the Interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria.
Herkulaas Combrink is the Interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria.

News Archive

Access to the Bloemfontein Campus
2015-04-02

Access Control Made Easy

The first phase of access control at the University of the Free State (UFS) was implemented in August 2014. The aim of this initiative is to tighten security measures on the Bloemfontein Campus.
 
Since November 2014, access control has been implemented at all five gates on the Bloemfontein Campus. These are:

  • The Main gate in Nelson Mandela Drive (Gate 1)
  • The gate in DF Malherbe Drive (Gate 5)
  • The gate in Wynand Mouton Drive (Gate 3) 
  • The gate in Furstenburg Street (Gate 4)
  • The gate in Badenhorst Street (Gate 2)

Here is some useful information about the access control system:

1. Remember your access card when you enter the campus

Dual-function cards (with distance reader compatibility) will make your movement through the gates more convenient. The university’s access system works automatically with remote or swipe action. Please make sure that you drive close to the reader or, better still, get the dual-frequency card to manage the distance between your vehicle and the remote card reader.

As of 23 March 2015, the extra security staff, who have been assisting at the gates since the implementation of access control on the Bloemfontein Campus, are no longer manning the card readers at the gates. Therefore, persons without cards will be able to enter the campus only at the one gate in DF Malherbe Drive where the Visitors Centre is situated. They will be referred to the Visitors Centre, where a day visitor’s card will be issued to them. You will need to produce a formal identification document (e.g. ID book, driver's licence).

Security will continue their normal duties at the guardhouses for the various gates on the campus.

2. Where do I get an access card?

You can apply at the university’s Visitors Centre front desk by producing your positive identification (ID book/passport/driver’s licence) and proof of payment for your access card.

You will then be directed to the Thakaneng Bridge where you will be able to collect your access card.

  • Go to the Cashier on the Thakaneng Bridge and pay your R65 for the dual-frequency card
  • Take your receipt, together with your existing card (if you have one), to the Card Division on the Thakaneng Bridge (next to Mellins Optometrists)
  • A new photo will be taken of you at the Card Office for your new card. Your new card will then be issued immediately.

Currently, there is a sufficient stock of the dual-frequency cards available at the Card Division on the Thakaneng Bridge.
 
Alternatively, you can apply online for your access card: http://apps.ufs.ac.za/cardapplication/application.aspx

Make sure you have the following documents ready to attach when completing the online form:

  • Copy of positive identification: ID/Driver's Licence/Passport
  • Signed declaration (http://supportservices.ufs.ac.za/dl/Userfiles/Documents/00007/4668_eng.pdf) by your service provider/employer (if you are a service provider) or a letter of confirmation from your spouse/partner/relative/coach/relevant UFS staff member or student in cases where you have to visit, pick-up or drop off your spouse/partner/relative frequently on the UFS Bloemfontein Campus.

Cost: R65 for a long-term card and free of charge for short-term visits and conference delegates. Pay at the Cashier on the Thakaneng Bridge or at Absa Bank, Account Number: 1 570 8500 71, Ref: 1 413 07670 0198.

3. Cutoff Date: 7 April 2015

After 7 April 2015, no pedestrian or motorist will be able to enter the campus without a valid access card. Persons without access cards will have to enter the campus at the gate in DF Malherbe Drive where the Visitors Centre is situated. You will then be referred to the Visitors Centre where you will have to apply for a day visitor’s card. It is important to note that no one will be able to enter the campus at the Visitors Centre without a formal identification document (e.g. ID book, driver's licence).

4. Dual-frequency card simplifies access to the campus

It is important to have your card ready on entering the campus.

This card will simplify access to the campus considerably, as the card reader will read the card when it is held in a vertical position at the driver’s side window in the direction of the distance reader. Please do not place the card on the dashboard. There is an antenna wire in the card. If the card is placed on the dashboard, you are not exposing the card surface to the reader, and that might influence the antenna’s response to the reader.

Remember, the distance between the reader and the boom is only a few metres.  If you approach the reader at a ’high’ speed, you are not allowing the system to identify your card, match it to the entry in the database, check if you are ‘legal’, and then send a signal to open the boom. 

All five gates are equipped with distance readers. Within the next three weeks, two extra distance readers will also be installed at the Main Gate in Nelson Mandela Drive.
 
Please note that the dual-frequency card is needed only when you enter the campus with a vehicle and you want to activate the distance reader. All the older cards will continue to work at the tag readers. 

5. Use alternative gates

At times, some of the gates carry more traffic than others, especially with the peak morning and afternoon traffic. Gates with less traffic include:

  • The gate in Badenhorst Street
  • The gate in DF Malherbe Drive
  • The gate in Nelson Mandela Drive

You are welcome to make use of one of these alternative gates.

6. Pedestrians

No pedestrian will be able to enter the Bloemfontein Campus without a valid access card. If you have left your card at home or have lost it, you should enter the campus at the gate in DF Malherbe Drive where the Visitors Centre is situated. You will be referred to the Visitors Centre where you can apply for a day visitor’s card. You will still need to produce a formal identification document (e.g. ID book, driver's licence).

7. More information

Email: visitorscentre@ufs.ac.za
Visitors Centre front desk: Tel: +27 51 401 7766 (Mondays-Fridays 07:45-16:30)
Card Division: Tel: +27 51 401 2799 (Mondays-Fridays 07:45-16:30)
Protection Services duty room: +27 51 401 2634 (24 hours)

 

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