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01 April 2021 | Story Andre Damons | Photo istock
The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave and people’s behaviour will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.

Similar trends as during the festive season of 2020 – when the behaviour of people was driving COVID-19 transmissions and played a role in the second wave – have emerged due to the Easter holidays, and may contribute to a third wave. 
“This means that we can already anticipate gatherings and a higher rate of travel during the next three weeks. As a result of this as well as non-adherence to the non-pharmaceutical interventions, we can anticipate this event to serve as a catalyst for transmission.” 

“If nothing is done to prevent this, it is anticipated that the Free State will see a steady increase and a potential third wave between 17 April and 26 June,” says Herkulaas Combrink, the interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP).

The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave

According to him, the vulnerability and population density dynamics in each province, the behaviour of people, and the social norms between communities must be taken into consideration to contextualise the impact of Easter on disease transmission – especially when looking at SARS-CoV-2.

For the Free State, the Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst that will lead up to the third wave, says Combrink. “If no interventions are put in place and people do not adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of the disease, then we will see a steady climb and increase in cases up until that time. This means that the behaviour of people will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.”

Reducing the severity of the third wave

According to Combrink, who is involved in risk communication and vaccine analytics with other members of the UFS, we may be able to reduce the severity of the third wave if the variant remains the same and the vaccination roll-out plan is in full effect. It will also help if the correct number of people are vaccinated, the general population adheres to PPE and mitigation strategies, and people practise the appropriate behaviour as indicated in all official COVID-19 communication, including the UFS COVID-19 information page.  

According to Prof Felicity Burt and Dr Sabeehah Vawda, both virology experts in the UFS Division of Virology, the current vaccination programme is aimed at reducing the severity of the disease among health-care workers. Prevention of further waves of infection through vaccination will require sufficient coverage to induce at least 70% herd immunity in the country. Currently, no country has achieved that level of herd immunity through vaccine programmes – this is the long-term goal of vaccination. 

“Irrespective of the government’s vaccination programmes and schedules and a virus that may mutate and perhaps become more virulent, the fundamental ways to protect yourself remain unchanged, namely social distancing, wearing of masks, and regular hand washing. People need to realise that this ‘new normal’ is going to be with us for a while and remains the best defence against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses and even provides protection against other respiratory pathogens.”

Vaccines and mutations

The exact frequency of mutations differs between different types of viruses, but generally, SARS-CoV-2 is known to have a slower ‘mutation rate’ than other RNA viruses because of its built-in ‘proofreading’ enzyme. The true mutation rate of a virus is difficult to measure, as the majority of mutations will be lethal to the virus. Irrespective, very few have actually resulted in clinical impact. 

“This highlights the rather gradual process of mutation, so vaccines should remain effective or at least partially effective in the near future, as they elicit antibodies that target different parts of the virus. Continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is necessary and ongoing to monitor for changes that may impact vaccines and diagnostic tests,” the experts say.

According to Prof Burt and Dr Vawda, scientists are continuously monitoring the situation to detect if the current vaccines would remain effective and to try to adjust them accordingly. How or when the virus will mutate in a clinically significant way is unknown, so at this point, the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against severe disease and hence have application in reducing significant disease. 

“There remains a lot unknown about the extent of protection and the duration of protection, and it is obviously hoped that the vaccine’s immune response in the human body would be able to provide at least some protection or decrease the possibility of severe disease even against potentially newer variants.”

News Archive

Three receive PhD degrees in Architecture at Winter Graduation ceremony
2015-07-08

Dr Hendrik Auret, Dr Gerhard Bosman and Dr Madelein Stoffberg.
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

Three graduates from the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Architecture received their PhD degrees at the 2015 Winter Graduation ceremony on the Bloemfontein Campus. According to Prof Walter Peters from Architecture, this is the first time in the history of the UFS that three PhD degrees in Architecture have been awarded simultaneously. It is country-wide a rare occurrence for three PhDs to be awarded in Architecture at one graduation ceremony.

“Previously, the UFS has only ever awarded a single PhD in Architecture, and that was in 1987, to Leon Roodt, a former head of the department. The first UFS honorary doctorate in Architecture was conferred on Gerard Moerdijk, architect of the Afrikaner church and the Voortrekker Monument. Gawie Fagan and Prof Bannie Britz, late head of the Department of Architecture, were other recipients of an honorary doctorate in Architecture,” said Prof Peters.

At the 2015 Winter Graduation ceremony, the UFS conferred PhDs in Architecture on Hendrik Auret from Roodt Architects in Bloemfontein as well as on Gerhard Bosman, and Madelein Stoffberg from the UFS Department of Architecture.

Dr Hendrik Auret

As an Architecture student at the university, Dr Auret obtained the degree BArchStud in 2004, a BArchStud (Hons) in 2005, and a March (Prof) in 2006, all cum laude. His Master’s design dissertation was judged the best from all South African Architecture learning sites, earning him the coveted ‘Corobrik Architectural Student of the Year’ award.

The work of the Norwegian architect and theorist, Christian Norberg-Schulz, served as the basis of Dr Auret’s PhD thesis, Care, place and architecture: a critical reading of Christian Norberg-Schulz’s architectural interpretation of Martin Heidegger’s philosophy, which considered the cogency of Norberg-Schulz’s architectural ‘translation’ of the German philosopher Heidegger’s thinking.

Dr Gerhard Bosman

On obtaining his BArchStud. and BArch degrees at the university in 1993 and 1995 respectively, Dr Bosman immediately joined the part-time staff of the Department of Architecture. As a lecturer in Building Construction, he developed an interest in vernacular and indigenous methods and techniques. Consequently, he built the first family home in Bloemfontein, for his wife, Debbie, and their two children, of earth construction, which been previously but erroneously considered inferior.

Despite that negative perception, Dr Bosman persuade the university to allow him to undertake post-graduate studies at the International Center for Earth Architecture (CRATerre-ENSAG) within the Ecole d' Architecture de Grenoble, France, from which institution,he was awarded the DPEA-Architecture de Terre qualification in 2000. In 2001,Dr Bosman was appointed to the full-time staff.

In 2003, when the opportunity arose, he became involved with SANPAD, the South Africa-Netherlands Research Project on Alternatives in Development, which lead ultimately to his PhD thesis: The acceptability of earth-constructed houses in central areas of South Africa.

Dr Madelein Stoffberg

In 2005, Dr Stoffberg enrolled as an Architecture student at the UFS, obtaining her BArchStud degree in 2007, the BArchStud (Hons) in 2008 and the March (Prof) in 2009, the latter cum laude. Immediately on graduating, Dr Stoffberg was appointed to her position as a part-time junior lecturer in the Department of Architecture.

During her studies, her attention was drawn to the concept of the spatial triad of Henri Lefebvre. Fascinated with the conceptand by the development of community centres as a contemporary architectural typology, she began her PhD degree.  

Entitled Lived reality, perception and architecture: two community centres interrogated through the lens of Lefebvre’s spatial triad, Dr Stoffberg investigated the relationship between the spatial understanding of the project architect and the community of two completed buildings in Port Elizabeth. She established a mismatch in perception, representation, and use of space, which could be bridged, however, by way of a qualitative research approach, instead of a quantitative one.


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