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01 April 2021 | Story Andre Damons | Photo istock
The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave and people’s behaviour will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.

Similar trends as during the festive season of 2020 – when the behaviour of people was driving COVID-19 transmissions and played a role in the second wave – have emerged due to the Easter holidays, and may contribute to a third wave. 
“This means that we can already anticipate gatherings and a higher rate of travel during the next three weeks. As a result of this as well as non-adherence to the non-pharmaceutical interventions, we can anticipate this event to serve as a catalyst for transmission.” 

“If nothing is done to prevent this, it is anticipated that the Free State will see a steady increase and a potential third wave between 17 April and 26 June,” says Herkulaas Combrink, the interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP).

The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave

According to him, the vulnerability and population density dynamics in each province, the behaviour of people, and the social norms between communities must be taken into consideration to contextualise the impact of Easter on disease transmission – especially when looking at SARS-CoV-2.

For the Free State, the Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst that will lead up to the third wave, says Combrink. “If no interventions are put in place and people do not adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of the disease, then we will see a steady climb and increase in cases up until that time. This means that the behaviour of people will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.”

Reducing the severity of the third wave

According to Combrink, who is involved in risk communication and vaccine analytics with other members of the UFS, we may be able to reduce the severity of the third wave if the variant remains the same and the vaccination roll-out plan is in full effect. It will also help if the correct number of people are vaccinated, the general population adheres to PPE and mitigation strategies, and people practise the appropriate behaviour as indicated in all official COVID-19 communication, including the UFS COVID-19 information page.  

According to Prof Felicity Burt and Dr Sabeehah Vawda, both virology experts in the UFS Division of Virology, the current vaccination programme is aimed at reducing the severity of the disease among health-care workers. Prevention of further waves of infection through vaccination will require sufficient coverage to induce at least 70% herd immunity in the country. Currently, no country has achieved that level of herd immunity through vaccine programmes – this is the long-term goal of vaccination. 

“Irrespective of the government’s vaccination programmes and schedules and a virus that may mutate and perhaps become more virulent, the fundamental ways to protect yourself remain unchanged, namely social distancing, wearing of masks, and regular hand washing. People need to realise that this ‘new normal’ is going to be with us for a while and remains the best defence against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses and even provides protection against other respiratory pathogens.”

Vaccines and mutations

The exact frequency of mutations differs between different types of viruses, but generally, SARS-CoV-2 is known to have a slower ‘mutation rate’ than other RNA viruses because of its built-in ‘proofreading’ enzyme. The true mutation rate of a virus is difficult to measure, as the majority of mutations will be lethal to the virus. Irrespective, very few have actually resulted in clinical impact. 

“This highlights the rather gradual process of mutation, so vaccines should remain effective or at least partially effective in the near future, as they elicit antibodies that target different parts of the virus. Continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is necessary and ongoing to monitor for changes that may impact vaccines and diagnostic tests,” the experts say.

According to Prof Burt and Dr Vawda, scientists are continuously monitoring the situation to detect if the current vaccines would remain effective and to try to adjust them accordingly. How or when the virus will mutate in a clinically significant way is unknown, so at this point, the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against severe disease and hence have application in reducing significant disease. 

“There remains a lot unknown about the extent of protection and the duration of protection, and it is obviously hoped that the vaccine’s immune response in the human body would be able to provide at least some protection or decrease the possibility of severe disease even against potentially newer variants.”

News Archive

Special Edition of the Journal for New Generation Sciences launched at UFS
2016-10-26

Description: Journal for New Generation Sciences launched  Tags: Journal for New Generation Sciences launched

Participants of the round-table discussion
at the launch of the Journal for New Generation
Sciences during the UFS Faculty of Education
colloquium which took place on 20 October 2016.
Photo: Oteng Mpete

The Journal for New Generation Sciences Special Edition was launched on 20 October 2016, at the Albert Wessels Auditorium, during the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Faculty of Education colloquium on the field of technological higher education and its contribution to the knowledge society.

Partnerships and knowledge production

Prof Laetus Lategan, Dean of Research and Innovation at the Central University of Technology (CUT), led the launch. “Higher education is not only about producing knowledge but it is also about fostering new relationships,” said Prof Lategan referring to CUT’s collaboration with the UFS Faculty of Education.

“Empowering people is important for capacity building, offering novice writers the opportunity to learn and a way to enhance their academic writing,” said Prof Lategan.

The Journal for New Generation Sciences is an accredited research publication in which scholars, internal and external to the institution, may publish. It accommodates national and international publications and showcases the university’s commitment to applied research.

Growing in leaps and bounds
According to Dr Somarie Holtzhausen, from the Faculty of Education’s School of Higher Education Studies, all papers are peer-reviewed by at least two experts. An editorial review also secures the quality of the paper. In 2014, when the journal was established, 30 contributions were submitted, although only 25 were successfully published.

“We turn down content not because it is not good, but unfortunately because it does not speak to the heart of the journal,” said Prof Lategan. With 60 peer reviewers, the journal’s contributors are assured that at least two peer reviewers will assess their article.

The Journal for New Generation Sciences supports both high-quality scholarly work of established researchers, and capacity building among new researchers.

During the round-table discussion various contributors to the journal spoke about their research and involvement in the publication of the journal.

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