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Is South Africa falling apart – where to from here?

12 August 2021 | Story Dr Nitha Ramnath

As a public higher-education institution in South Africa with a responsibility to contribute to public discourse, the University of the Free State (UFS) will be presenting the webinar as part of the Free State Literature Festival’s online initiative, VrySpraak-digitaal.

The aim of the webinar series is to discuss issues facing South Africa by engaging experts at the university and in South Africa. Some of the topics for 2021 include, among others, reimagining universities for student success; corruption; local elections, the state of business – particularly in the Free State.

In 2020, the webinar series saw the successful participation of leading experts engaging on COVID-19 and the crisis facing the country socially, economically, and politically. This year, in lieu of the Free State Arts Festival, the UFS will present the webinar virtually over a period of five months.

Fourth webinar presented on 24 August 2021
What South Africa will look like after the recent unrest in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, is yet unknown. As the country is attempting to normalise while tallying the human, political, and economic cost of the riots – what we know for sure is that the events of the past few weeks have dispelled the impression of South Africa as exceptional, with a triumphant future. Moreover, the inconsistent response from government during and after the unrest laid bare the divisions within the ruling party. As South Africans are reeling from the aftermath of the looting, a lacklustre response from leaders with unreliable, conflicting messages has brought little comfort to those most in need.

What happens now? What will it take for South Africans to advance a cohesive vision to provide a sustainable future for the next generation?

Date: Tuesday, 24 August 2021
Topic: Is South Africa falling apart – where to from here?
Time: 12:30-14:00
RSVP: Alicia Pienaar, pienaaran1@ufs.ac.za by 20 August 2021

Facilitator:

Prof Francis Petersen
Rector and Vice-Chancellor, UFS

Panellists:

• Prof Bonang Mohale
UFS Chancellor
Professor of Practice
Johannesburg Business School, and
Chairman Bidvest Group Limited

• Nikiwe Bikitsha
Board Member: Nelson Mandela Foundation
CEO and co-founder: Amargi Media

• Qaanitah Hunter
Political Editor: News24

• Prof Anthony Turton
Affiliated Professor
UFS Centre for Environmental Management

Bios of speakers:

Prof Bonang Mohale

A Professor of Practice at the Johannesburg Business School’s College of Business and Economics, and Chairman of the Bidvest Group Limited, Prof Mohale is a published author and respected business leader who has held chairmanships and directorships at some of South Africa’s top companies. He currently serves on the boards of Swiss Re Africa Limited, Rand Merchant Bank Limited (RMB), the Automobile Association of South Africa, and SBV. Prof Mohale was the former Chief Executive Officer of Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA). In 2001, he received the President’s Award for his servanthood in South African industry, and in 2019 the Free Market Foundation’s Luminary Award. Prior to joining BLSA, Prof Mohale was the Chairman of Shell Downstream South Africa (Pty) Limited, and Vice-President of Shell Upstream.

Ms Nikiwe Bikitsha

Nikiwe Bikitsha is a former journalist who has been at the forefront of major national and international developments in a news and current affairs broadcasting career spanning twenty years. Nikiwe is a Fulbright Hubert H Humphrey Fellow – the Humphrey programme is a mid-career Fulbright exchange fellowship awarded to people who have demonstrated leadership. Nikiwe holds an MA in Journalism and Media Studies from the University of the Witwatersrand, and an MSc degree in African Studies from the University of Oxford. She serves as trustee on the board of the Nelson Mandela Foundation, is a member of the Deloitte Global Advisory Council and an independent non-executive director of Deloitte Africa. Despite leaving journalism, Nikiwe remains a keen observer of society.

Ms Qaanitah Hunter

Qaanitah Hunter is an award-winning political journalist and author. She is the political editor of News24 and author of Balance of Power: Ramaphosa and the future of South Africa. Qaanitah has won a number of awards for her work, including the Nat Nakasa award for brave and courageous journalism in 2019. She is currently a master’s student at the University of the Witwatersrand. She has reported fearlessly on state capture, the Zuma years, and the political transition thereafter. Her constant probing and investigations have played a pivotal role in holding truth to power. Her writing on South African politics and investigations has featured prominently on many national media platforms, often setting the agenda in the country. Qaanitah is well-versed in issues of governance and her well-rounded and balanced political reporting has contributed to her astute analysis of news and current affairs. She has fought strongly against censorship and intimidation among journalists and has been a strong advocator for the freedom of the press. Qaanitah believes that the prospect of any democracy to persevere is pinned on how free the media is and its ability to hold those in power accountable.

Prof Anthony Turton

Prof Anthony Turton is an Affiliated Professor in the Centre for Environmental Management at the University of the Free State (UFS). He specialises in strategic planning, transboundary water resource management, policy and institutional issues, conflict resolution (mitigation), political risk assessment for large infrastructural projects, and research programme design. He is also the Director of Nanodyn Systems Pty Ltd. Prof Turton’s focus is on resources, more specifically the need to overcome water and energy constraints to our future economic growth and prosperity, both as a country and the entire SADC region. As an environmentally aware person, he believes that we are reaching the limits to our current developmental approaches and will be forced to make changes in the near future, whether we like it or not. By understanding and anticipating this, Prof Turton assists organisations in staying ahead of the game by isolating fundamental drivers at work and by identifying emerging opportunities.

News Archive

Inaugural lecture: Prof. Phillipe Burger

2007-11-26

Attending the lecture were, from the left: Prof. Tienie Crous (Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences at the UFS), Prof. Phillipe Burger (Departmental Chairperson of the Department of Economics at the UFS), and Prof. Frederick Fourie (Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS).
Photo: Stephen Collet

A summary of an inaugural lecture presented by Prof. Phillipe Burger on the topic: “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

South African business cycle shows reduction in volatility

Better monetary policy and improvements in the financial sector that place less liquidity constraints on individuals is one of the main reasons for the reduction in the volatility of the South African economy. The improvement in access to the financial sector also enables individuals to manage their debt better.

These are some of the findings in an analysis on the volatility of the South African business cycle done by Prof. Philippe Burger, Departmental Chairperson of the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Economics.

Prof. Burger delivered his inaugural lecture last night (22 November 2007) on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein on the topic “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

In his lecture, Prof. Burger emphasised a few key aspects of the South African business cycle and indicated how it changed during the periods 1960-1976, 1976-1994 en 1994-2006.

With the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an indicator of the business cycle, the analysis identified the variables that showed the highest correlation with the GDP. During the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006, these included durable consumption, manufacturing investment, private sector investment, as well as investment in machinery and non-residential buildings. Other variables that also show a high correlation with the GDP are imports, non-durable consumption, investment in the financial services sector, investment by general government, as well as investment in residential buildings.

Prof. Burger’s analysis also shows that changes in durable consumption, investment in the manufacturing sector, investment in the private sector, as well as investment in non-residential buildings preceded changes in the GDP. If changes in a variable such as durable consumption precede changes in the GDP, it is an indication that durable consumption is one of the drivers of the business cycle. The up or down swing of durable consumption may, in other words, just as well contribute to an up or down swing in the business cycle.

A surprising finding of the analysis is the particularly strong role durable consumption has played in the business cycle since 1994. This finding is especially surprising due to the fact that durable consumption only constitutes about 12% of the total household consumption.

A further surprising finding is the particularly small role exports have been playing since 1960 as a driver of the business cycle. In South Africa it is still generally accepted that exports are one of the most important drivers of the business cycle. It is generally accepted that, should the business cycles of South Africa’s most important trade partners show an upward phase; these partners will purchase more from South Africa. This increase in exports will contribute to the South African economy moving upward. Prof. Burger’s analyses shows, however, that exports have generally never fulfil this role.

Over and above the identification of the drivers of the South African business cycle, Prof. Burger’s analysis also investigated the volatility of the business cycle.

When the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006 are compared, the analysis shows that the volatility of the business cycle has reduced since 1994 with more than half. The reduction in volatility can be traced to the reduction in the volatility of household consumption (especially durables and services), as well as a reduction in the volatility of investment in machinery, non-residential buildings and transport equipment. The last three coincide with the general reduction in the volatility of investment in the manufacturing sector. Investment in sectors such as electricity and transport (not to be confused with investment in transport equipment by various sectors) which are strongly dominated by the government, did not contribute to the decrease in volatility.

In his analysis, Prof. Burger supplies reasons for the reduction in volatility. One of the explanations is the reduction in the shocks affecting the economy – especially in the South African context. Another explanation is the application of an improved monetary policy by the South African Reserve Bank since the mid 1990’s. A third explanation is the better access to liquidity and credit since the mid 1990’s, which enables the better management of household finance and the absorption of financial shocks.

A further reason which contributed to the reduction in volatility in countries such as the United States of America’s business cycle is better inventory management. While the volatility of inventory in South Africa has also reduced there is, according to Prof. Burger, little proof that better inventory management contributed to the reduction in volatility of the GDP.

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