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18 February 2021 | Story ANDRE DAMONS | Photo Supplied
Prof Maxim Finkelstein, distinguished Professor at the Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science at the UFS has become the only researcher with an A1-rating in South Africa (awarded by NRF) in Probability, Statistics and Operations Research.

A professor in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences at the University of the Free State (UFS) has become the only researcher with an A1-rating in Probability, Statistics and Operations Research in South Africa after being awarded this prestigious rating by the National Research Foundation (NRF).

This is the second time Prof Maxim Finkelstein, the distinguished Professor at the Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, has been awarded with an A-rating. The first was in 2015.

The goal is to produce quality research

According to Prof Finkelstein, the rating should not be a goal as such for a researcher but should produce a quality research that is recognised by peers and that, above all, brings a real satisfaction in life. Prof Finkelstein says: “The rating is just a consequence of what one, as a researcher, has achieved in the past eight years and, actually, during the whole professional life as well. South Africa is the only country in the world that is able to perform this rigorous internationally sound rating process for individual researchers. ‘Scientifically large’ countries just cannot do it, technically.”

Prof Finkelstein’s area of expertise is the modelling of random events and quantifying probabilities of their occurrences. He explains: “For instance, in industry, people are interested in probabilities that a machine or process or mission will accomplish its task without failure or accident. In order to assess the probabilities of interest, one must have an adequate mathematical/stochastic model that should be properly developed. 

“Thus, I am developing such models that can be rather advanced because they should take into account numerous factors, e.g., that the object is operating in a random environment, that its structure could change, that there can be human errors affecting the outcome, that an object interacts with other objects, etc. This is usually done in the framework of mathematical reliability theory that considers operation of technical devices.” 

The only A-rating at NAS

“I am quite excited to get the A-rating for the second time, especially because it is the only A-rating in Probability, Statistics and Operations Research in South Africa. It is also the only A-rating at our Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences.

“The fact that it is an A1 and not A2, as previously, does not, in fact, mean too much to me. What matters really is that it is the A-category defined by the reviewers’ opinions that the applicant is a world leader in his discipline,” says Prof Finkelstein.

During his numerous visits as a research professor to the Max Planck Institute of Demographic Research in Germany, he jointly with the colleagues from this institute, were applying the developed stochastic approaches to modelling lifespans of organisms as well. 

One of Prof Finkelstein’s evolving interests is in the area of healthcare engineering when, for instance, monitoring the key health parameters of a patient, some optimal cost-wise decisions can be made on preventive treatments and interventions. 

“I want also to stress that, in general, international collaboration is very important for emerging and established researchers, especially in ‘remote’ South Africa, although nowadays the term ‘remote’ is obviously outdated,” says Prof Finkelstein.

He also collaborates with numerous colleagues around the globe. Apart from the visiting position in the Max Planck Institute he held for many years, Prof Finkelstein regularly visits the ITMO University in St Petersburg, Russia, and is also now establishing a Visiting Professor position at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland.

News Archive

Afromontane Research Unit makes climate change inroads
2017-10-28



Description: Prof Mukwada Tags: Prof Mukwada

Prof Geofrey Mukwada

The Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) has recently made inroads in climate-change research. This has been achieved through work published by Professor Geofrey Mukwada and Professor Desmond Manatsa, whose research could make it possible to predict El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) several months before its occurrence. 

Professor Manatsa is an ARU postdoctoral fellow currently collaborating with Professor Mukwada on an ongoing climate-change research project. The two experts noted that ENSO is one of the most important climate phenomena on earth, due to its ability to change the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn, influences temperature and precipitation across the world.

Climate change scientific breakthrough

“This is a tremendous breakthrough, because humanity as a whole has been looking for answers regarding the origins of climate-related hazards which are worsening, yet becoming more frequent and difficult to predict. In some cases, floods and droughts occur in the same season, and within the same geographical area. These extreme climate events are becoming more frequent, often leading to loss of life and threatening national economies and livelihoods,” said Professor Mukwada, coordinator of the ARU sub-theme on Living and Doing Business In Afromontane Environments.

During an interview with the Southern Times, Professor Manatsa revealed that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is initiated and sustained in the tropical Pacific, a fact that has eluded climate scientists for years. “It was an unresolved puzzle which limited the successful prediction of ENSO events with reasonable lead time. Climate scientists were only able to know with some degree of certainty that the event would occur once it had started, just a few months before its impacts were felt,” Professor Manatsa said.

Prof Manatsa is upbeat that a lot of headway has now been made towards unravelling the mystery of ENSO’s origin. “The necessity of the inclusion of the solar energy changes due to ozone alterations in the upper atmosphere should significantly impact on the realistic version of ENSO in climate models. This in turn should not only provide more accurate ENSO forecasts for the region, but a longer lead time for users to prepare for the event,” he said.

ENSO is a climate phenomenon based in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Its events bring good rains and even floods over most parts of the world in some years and droughts in others, depending on whether the phenomenon is in a warm or cold phase. The warm phase is referred to as El Nino, when the waters over the tropical east Pacific are heated up, but when cooled, it is termed La Nina. La Nina was responsible for the favourable rains over much of Southern Africa, including Zimbabwe, during the 2016/17 rainfall season. The El Nino occurrence a year before had devastating drought effects that was characterised by scorching heat and widespread water shortages. This work was published in a high-profile journal, Nature Scientific Reports

ARU is a flagship inter- and trans-disciplinary research programme focusing on the under-researched area of montane communities. It was launched in June 2015 and is based on the Qwaqwa Campus. 

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