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08 January 2021 | Story Charlene Stanley | Photo Charlene Stanley
Dr Matteo Grilli with his first book in front of the North Block on the Bloemfontein Campus.
Dr Matteo Grilli from the International Studies Group (ISG) became the second ISG scholar in just four years to receive a coveted P-rating from the NRF.

A P-rating (Prestigious Awards) by the National Research Foundation (NRF) is the holy grail for all young researchers at all South African universities and across all disciplines. It is a valuable tool for benchmarking local researchers against the best in the world. But it is hard to come by. Only one or two researchers are normally granted this sought-after standing each year. 

Dr Matteo Grilli, a young Italian historian from the International Studies Group (ISG), says he was “pleasantly surprised” when he recently got the nod from the NRF, attributing his P-rating to the “excellent training and support” that he received from the UFS, and specifically the ISG and its head, Prof Ian Phimister.  

Unique achievement for ISG
What makes this achievement even more significant, is that the ISG produced another P-rated scholar a mere four years ago (Dr Daniel Spence in 2016).

“For Prof Phimister to produce two P-rated researchers in such a short time is really an unbelievable achievement. I am not aware of any other department at any South African university that could achieve this,” says Dr Glen Taylor, Senior Director: Research Development. 

P-rating requirements
The NRF’s P category honours young researchers (normally younger than 35 years) who have held a doctorate or equivalent qualification for less than five years. Researchers in this group are recognised by all or the vast majority of reviewers as having demonstrated the potential to become future international leaders in their field based on exceptional research performance and output from their doctoral and/or early postdoctoral research careers.

UFS becoming a mecca for African studies
Dr Grilli produced his first book, Nkrumaism and African Nationalism: Ghana's Pan-African Foreign Policy in the Age of Decolonisation around two years ago, after being accepted as a postdoc scholar by the ISG in 2015.

This unique research centre was established towards the end of 2012, with the aim of attracting and recruiting high-calibre postgraduate students and postdoctoral fellows from all over the world to the UFS. 

“Working at the ISG has undoubtedly been the best experience of my life and made me the solid scholar I am today. At the ISG, I found the best working environment you could possibly have in an academic setting, even compared to the Northern Hemisphere,” Dr Grilli says.

He believes the centre’s strength lies in the “exceptional exchange” that researchers have with their peers, allowing them to not only master their research subject but also to learn from other members’ research and methodologies.

“In my view, the ISG is concretely contributing to bringing the centre of African studies back to the African continent,” he enthuses.

Passion for Southern African politics
Dr Grilli specialises in the political history of Ghana and Southern Africa, focusing on transnational histories of African liberation movements, the history of Pan-Africanism, the Cold War and decolonisation in Africa, and the history of European migrations in sub-Saharan Africa (particularly Italian communities in Ghana and the Congo DRC). 

He is currently working on a book project about the history of Pan-Africanism, Socialism, and Nationalism in Southern Africa, particularly in Lesotho, eSwatini, and Botswana.

Asked what advice he had for young researchers, he echoes the counsel he received from Prof Phimister at the start of his tenure at the ISG: 

“Always aim high. Don’t be intimidated by the fact that there is a lot of competition in the academia, nor that you might be disadvantaged because you work in the Global South. If you work hard, your research will speak for itself and you will be able to publish solid works even in the most prestigious journals of the Northern Hemisphere.”

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Inaugural lecture: Prof. Phillipe Burger
2007-11-26

 

Attending the lecture were, from the left: Prof. Tienie Crous (Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences at the UFS), Prof. Phillipe Burger (Departmental Chairperson of the Department of Economics at the UFS), and Prof. Frederick Fourie (Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS).
Photo: Stephen Collet

 
A summary of an inaugural lecture presented by Prof. Phillipe Burger on the topic: “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

South African business cycle shows reduction in volatility

Better monetary policy and improvements in the financial sector that place less liquidity constraints on individuals is one of the main reasons for the reduction in the volatility of the South African economy. The improvement in access to the financial sector also enables individuals to manage their debt better.

These are some of the findings in an analysis on the volatility of the South African business cycle done by Prof. Philippe Burger, Departmental Chairperson of the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Economics.

Prof. Burger delivered his inaugural lecture last night (22 November 2007) on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein on the topic “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

In his lecture, Prof. Burger emphasised a few key aspects of the South African business cycle and indicated how it changed during the periods 1960-1976, 1976-1994 en 1994-2006.

With the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an indicator of the business cycle, the analysis identified the variables that showed the highest correlation with the GDP. During the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006, these included durable consumption, manufacturing investment, private sector investment, as well as investment in machinery and non-residential buildings. Other variables that also show a high correlation with the GDP are imports, non-durable consumption, investment in the financial services sector, investment by general government, as well as investment in residential buildings.

Prof. Burger’s analysis also shows that changes in durable consumption, investment in the manufacturing sector, investment in the private sector, as well as investment in non-residential buildings preceded changes in the GDP. If changes in a variable such as durable consumption precede changes in the GDP, it is an indication that durable consumption is one of the drivers of the business cycle. The up or down swing of durable consumption may, in other words, just as well contribute to an up or down swing in the business cycle.

A surprising finding of the analysis is the particularly strong role durable consumption has played in the business cycle since 1994. This finding is especially surprising due to the fact that durable consumption only constitutes about 12% of the total household consumption.

A further surprising finding is the particularly small role exports have been playing since 1960 as a driver of the business cycle. In South Africa it is still generally accepted that exports are one of the most important drivers of the business cycle. It is generally accepted that, should the business cycles of South Africa’s most important trade partners show an upward phase; these partners will purchase more from South Africa. This increase in exports will contribute to the South African economy moving upward. Prof. Burger’s analyses shows, however, that exports have generally never fulfil this role.

Over and above the identification of the drivers of the South African business cycle, Prof. Burger’s analysis also investigated the volatility of the business cycle.

When the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006 are compared, the analysis shows that the volatility of the business cycle has reduced since 1994 with more than half. The reduction in volatility can be traced to the reduction in the volatility of household consumption (especially durables and services), as well as a reduction in the volatility of investment in machinery, non-residential buildings and transport equipment. The last three coincide with the general reduction in the volatility of investment in the manufacturing sector. Investment in sectors such as electricity and transport (not to be confused with investment in transport equipment by various sectors) which are strongly dominated by the government, did not contribute to the decrease in volatility.

In his analysis, Prof. Burger supplies reasons for the reduction in volatility. One of the explanations is the reduction in the shocks affecting the economy – especially in the South African context. Another explanation is the application of an improved monetary policy by the South African Reserve Bank since the mid 1990’s. A third explanation is the better access to liquidity and credit since the mid 1990’s, which enables the better management of household finance and the absorption of financial shocks.

A further reason which contributed to the reduction in volatility in countries such as the United States of America’s business cycle is better inventory management. While the volatility of inventory in South Africa has also reduced there is, according to Prof. Burger, little proof that better inventory management contributed to the reduction in volatility of the GDP.

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