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29 November 2021 | Story Dr Nitha Ramnath


Panellists at the University of the Free State (UFS) Thought-Leader webinar, titled: Looking through a crystal ball – predictions for 2022, felt that the ineffectiveness, lack of skills, and incompetence of the government forced communities to change their attitude and start doing things for themselves. Eskom is considered a major obstacle to growth and those responsible for corruption will not be held to account, according to the panel.

The panel comprised Dr Pali Lehohla, Consultant: Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative and former Statistician General, South Africa; Dr Ina Gouws, Senior Lecturer: Governance and Political Transformation, UFS; Ms Amanda Kotze-Nhlapo, Chief Convention Bureau Officer, South African Tourism; and Mr Dawie Roodt, Director and Chief Economist: Efficient Group.

This was the sixth webinar in the series, which is part of the Free State Literature Festival’s online initiative, VrySpraak-digitaal

This year is better than next year

“In South Africa, there is the absence of policy systems with no leadership in the country at all levels,” said Dr Lehohla. The Treasury promises nothing for South Africa in terms of the future. Although South Africa can still reach 5,3% growth, which is reasonable, the elephant in the room is the macro reforms. The apartheid regime had a master plan in terms of how things were designed and developed – the current administration does not have a master plan, nor does it have good leadership, according to Dr Lehohla. If we do not have sound technical skills and the support of science, we will not move forward. We need competent people to drive the state, and the current government does not have these skills. This year is better than next year, according to Dr Lehohla.

People are ready to come back

The tourism sector is seeing signs of recovery. “South Africa is working on recovery – first on a domestic level, national, and then international,” said Kotze-Nhlapo. South Africa has the business events and conventions sector, and there is the need to get people to meet. South African Tourism is focusing on and targeting specific markets to build confidence in South Africa. “Twenty-four markets are being looked at as potential tourism gains for South Africa,” said Kotze-Nhlapo. The meeting industry, which looks good, will be prioritised and will trump leisure travel, according to Kotze-Nhlapo. She said tourism could be a catalyst to improve the broader economy of South Africa. Specific projects, such as Africa’s Travel Indaba, are looking at helping with the recovery in order to bring buyers back, as well as participation in international travel expos – people are ready to travel again, to meet, and to come back, according to Kotze-Nhlapo.

Listen to recording below: 


An incompetent government cannot implement a bad idea

The three important aspects that ensure basic economic growth are private property rights and private property rights protection, free trade, and sound money. It is difficult to trade if there is no property rights protection and money, according to Dawie Roodt.  “In South Africa, private property rights protection is under threat, free trade is being limited, and the reality is that South Africa has lost 99% of the value of its currency,” said Roodt. South Africa is experiencing significant supply chain disruptions, with high global inflation. In 1994, South Africa generated more electricity on a per capita basis in relation to the rest of the world, and today we generate less than 65% – without electricity the economy cannot grow. As an emerging economy, our fiscal debt levels as a percentage of the GDP are extremely high and unsustainable, according to Roodt. 

While we have a corrupt government, the lack of effectiveness causes more damage to the economy. The ANC was the biggest loser in the local government elections, not in numbers, but in confidence. Coalitions and instability are in the pipeline – the ANC will lose its absolute majority in the 2024 elections, according to Roodt. 

In South Africa, twelve million people are without jobs and 14 million have jobs. We have two million civil servants plus 18 million grant recipients – in total, 20 million people receive income from the state every month, plus grant recipients of ten million odd. In SA, 33 million people receive an income from the state every month. Only 12 million people in the private productive sector are paying for 30 million people who are recipients from the state in one form or the other.
Roodt projects that in terms of the budget, we will see less money being spent on the 30 million people over the next couple of years, because money will run out. “If less money is spent, we will see an increase in social and political tension, because money will be taken away from 30 million people,” said Roodt. 

“We are seeing an increase in privatisation, because the government is one of destruction and collapse,” said Roodt. The private sector is taking over – the police is privatised, with an increase in private security that is three times more than the police; electricity is being privatised, with the allowance of 100 megawatt for the private sector; and a third of the railways can have the private sector as partners, according to Roodt.  “The good thing about an incompetent government is that it cannot implement a bad idea, and therefore the NHI will not happen; we will have to cut back on grants as this is not affordable,” said Roodt.

Expropriation, import duties, and minimum wage undermines growth, coupled with Eskom, which is a major obstacle to economic growth. However, within this, an incompetent government has created opportunities in technology, education, electricity, and many other areas, according to Roodt.

 A darkness hovers over our nation

We find ourselves on the other side of local government elections, where the results at local level have not been seen before. The economic hubs of our country are now being governed by minority opposition parties. “A darkness is hovering over South Africa and it is no longer possible to conceal it with empty promises and excuses from those in charge of creating better ways,” said Dr Gouws. We need service delivery to attract investment and to stop relying on government grants. The current national administration has no interest in creating an environment for entrepreneurship, and people are tired; they are expected to care about everything without seeing changes in their daily lives, according to Dr Gouws. The run-up to the recent elections illustrates that communities have started to change their attitude; in a few pockets, communities have shown that differences are an asset in solving their problems, where they have to rely on each other as opposed to the politicians. “What made the difference was the necessity and realisation that people cannot rely on government, but only on themselves as a community to bring together what they can on the foundation of ethical leadership and integrity,” said Dr Gouws. 

The insistence on integrity in the way that people live their lives, and in their communities, really matters.
“Looking to the future, the new communal solidarity and local focus on fit-for-purpose solutions may be the only hope to prevent a complete collapse while national government sorts itself out,” said Dr Gouws. People are tired of having to bounce back and finding ways to cope with situations they are presented with or find themselves in. People want to be able to predict a problem, mitigate a crisis, or prevent the impact altogether, according to Dr Gouws.

Complete distrust exists between government and communities, and there is the need for government to approach communities and partner with them. Communities should be given the opportunity to show what has been done in communities, what has been achieved, and where they are going; there is insistence on this now. “The national government will remain as paralysed as it was, and the president will not make changes, especially to hold the corrupt to account.  Relying entirely on national policies and unexecuted plans should be avoided by local communities desperate for better lives,” said Dr Gouws. The expectation of investment to grow the economy and create the growth that people will feel on ground level will not happen until the next leadership conference, according to Dr Gouws.

Listen to a recording of the webinar below:


News Archive

“To forgive is not an obligation. It’s a choice.” – Prof Minow during Reconciliation Lecture
2014-03-05

“To forgive is not an obligation. It’s a choice.” – Prof Minow during the Third Annual Reconciliation Lecture entitled Forgiveness, Law and Justice.
Photo: Johan Roux

No one could have anticipated the atmosphere in which Prof Martha Minow would visit the Bloemfontein Campus. And no one could have predicted how apt the timing of her message would be. As this formidable Dean of Harvard University’s Law School stepped behind the podium, a latent tension edged through the crowded audience.

“The issue of getting along after conflict is urgent.”

With these few words, Prof Minow exposed the essence of not only her lecture, but also the central concern of the entire university community.

As an expert on issues surrounding racial justice, Prof Minow has worked across the globe in post-conflict societies. How can we prevent atrocities from happening? she asked. Her answer was an honest, “I don’t know.” What she is certain of, on the other hand, is that the usual practice of either silence or retribution does not work. “I think that silence produces rage – understandably – and retribution produces the cycle of violence. Rather than ignoring what happens, rather than retribution, it would be good to reach for something more.” This is where reconciliation comes in.

Prof Minow put forward the idea that forgiveness should accompany reconciliation efforts. She defined forgiveness as a conscious, deliberate decision to forego rightful grounds of resentment towards those who have committed a wrong. “To forgive then, in this definition, is not an obligation. It’s a choice. And it’s held by the one who was harmed,” she explained.

Letting go of resentment cannot be forced – not even by the law. What the law can do, though, is either to encourage or discourage forgiveness. Prof Minow showed how the law can construct adversarial processes that render forgiveness less likely, when indeed its intention was the opposite. “Or, law can give people chances to meet together in spaces where they may apologise and they may forgive,” she continued. This point introduced some surprising revelations about our Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC).

Indeed, studies do report ambivalence, disappointment and mixed views about the TRC. Whatever our views are on its success, Prof Minow reported that people across the world wonder how South African did it. “It may not work entirely inside the country; outside the country it’s had a huge effect. It’s a touchstone for transitional justice.”

The TRC “seems to have coincided with, and maybe contributed to, the relatively peaceful political transition to democracy that is, frankly, an absolute miracle.” What came as a surprise to many is this: the fact that the TRC has affected transitional justice efforts in forty jurisdictions, including Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Cambodia and Liberia. It has even inspired the creation of a TRC in Greensborough, North Carolina, in the United States.

There are no blueprints for solving conflict, though. “But the possibility of something other than criminal trials, something other than war, something other than silence – that’s why the TRC, I think, has been such an exemplar to the world,” she commended.

Court decision cannot rebuild a society, though. Only individuals can forgive. Only individuals can start with purposeful, daily decisions to forgive and forge a common future. Forgiveness is rather like kindness, she suggested. It’s a resource without limits. It’s not scarce like water or money. It’s within our reach. But if it’s forced, it’s not forgiveness.

“It is good,” Prof Minow warned, “to be cautious about the use of law to deliberately shape or manipulate the feelings of any individual. But it is no less important to admit that law does affect human beings, not just in its results, but in its process.” And then we must take responsibility for how we use that law.

“A government can judge, but only people can forgive.” As Prof Minow’s words lingered, the air suddenly seemed a bit more buoyant.

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