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29 November 2021 | Story Dr Nitha Ramnath

Panellists at the University of the Free State (UFS) Thought-Leader webinar, titled: Looking through a crystal ball – predictions for 2022, felt that the ineffectiveness, lack of skills, and incompetence of the government forced communities to change their attitude and start doing things for themselves. Eskom is considered a major obstacle to growth and those responsible for corruption will not be held to account, according to the panel.

The panel comprised Dr Pali Lehohla, Consultant: Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative and former Statistician General, South Africa; Dr Ina Gouws, Senior Lecturer: Governance and Political Transformation, UFS; Ms Amanda Kotze-Nhlapo, Chief Convention Bureau Officer, South African Tourism; and Mr Dawie Roodt, Director and Chief Economist: Efficient Group.

This was the sixth webinar in the series, which is part of the Free State Literature Festival’s online initiative, VrySpraak-digitaal. 

This year is better than next year

“In South Africa, there is the absence of policy systems with no leadership in the country at all levels,” said Dr Lehohla. The Treasury promises nothing for South Africa in terms of the future. Although South Africa can still reach 5,3% growth, which is reasonable, the elephant in the room is the macro reforms. The apartheid regime had a master plan in terms of how things were designed and developed – the current administration does not have a master plan, nor does it have good leadership, according to Dr Lehohla. If we do not have sound technical skills and the support of science, we will not move forward. We need competent people to drive the state, and the current government does not have these skills. This year is better than next year, according to Dr Lehohla.

People are ready to come back

The tourism sector is seeing signs of recovery. “South Africa is working on recovery – first on a domestic level, national, and then international,” said Kotze-Nhlapo. South Africa has the business events and conventions sector, and there is the need to get people to meet. South African Tourism is focusing on and targeting specific markets to build confidence in South Africa. “Twenty-four markets are being looked at as potential tourism gains for South Africa,” said Kotze-Nhlapo. The meeting industry, which looks good, will be prioritised and will trump leisure travel, according to Kotze-Nhlapo. She said tourism could be a catalyst to improve the broader economy of South Africa. Specific projects, such as Africa’s Travel Indaba, are looking at helping with the recovery in order to bring buyers back, as well as participation in international travel expos – people are ready to travel again, to meet, and to come back, according to Kotze-Nhlapo.

Listen to recording below: 


An incompetent government cannot implement a bad idea

The three important aspects that ensure basic economic growth are private property rights and private property rights protection, free trade, and sound money. It is difficult to trade if there is no property rights protection and money, according to Dawie Roodt.  “In South Africa, private property rights protection is under threat, free trade is being limited, and the reality is that South Africa has lost 99% of the value of its currency,” said Roodt. South Africa is experiencing significant supply chain disruptions, with high global inflation. In 1994, South Africa generated more electricity on a per capita basis in relation to the rest of the world, and today we generate less than 65% – without electricity the economy cannot grow. As an emerging economy, our fiscal debt levels as a percentage of the GDP are extremely high and unsustainable, according to Roodt. 

While we have a corrupt government, the lack of effectiveness causes more damage to the economy. The ANC was the biggest loser in the local government elections, not in numbers, but in confidence. Coalitions and instability are in the pipeline – the ANC will lose its absolute majority in the 2024 elections, according to Roodt. 

In South Africa, twelve million people are without jobs and 14 million have jobs. We have two million civil servants plus 18 million grant recipients – in total, 20 million people receive income from the state every month, plus grant recipients of ten million odd. In SA, 33 million people receive an income from the state every month. Only 12 million people in the private productive sector are paying for 30 million people who are recipients from the state in one form or the other.
Roodt projects that in terms of the budget, we will see less money being spent on the 30 million people over the next couple of years, because money will run out. “If less money is spent, we will see an increase in social and political tension, because money will be taken away from 30 million people,” said Roodt. 

“We are seeing an increase in privatisation, because the government is one of destruction and collapse,” said Roodt. The private sector is taking over – the police is privatised, with an increase in private security that is three times more than the police; electricity is being privatised, with the allowance of 100 megawatt for the private sector; and a third of the railways can have the private sector as partners, according to Roodt.  “The good thing about an incompetent government is that it cannot implement a bad idea, and therefore the NHI will not happen; we will have to cut back on grants as this is not affordable,” said Roodt.

Expropriation, import duties, and minimum wage undermines growth, coupled with Eskom, which is a major obstacle to economic growth. However, within this, an incompetent government has created opportunities in technology, education, electricity, and many other areas, according to Roodt.

 A darkness hovers over our nation

We find ourselves on the other side of local government elections, where the results at local level have not been seen before. The economic hubs of our country are now being governed by minority opposition parties. “A darkness is hovering over South Africa and it is no longer possible to conceal it with empty promises and excuses from those in charge of creating better ways,” said Dr Gouws. We need service delivery to attract investment and to stop relying on government grants. The current national administration has no interest in creating an environment for entrepreneurship, and people are tired; they are expected to care about everything without seeing changes in their daily lives, according to Dr Gouws. The run-up to the recent elections illustrates that communities have started to change their attitude; in a few pockets, communities have shown that differences are an asset in solving their problems, where they have to rely on each other as opposed to the politicians. “What made the difference was the necessity and realisation that people cannot rely on government, but only on themselves as a community to bring together what they can on the foundation of ethical leadership and integrity,” said Dr Gouws. 

The insistence on integrity in the way that people live their lives, and in their communities, really matters.
“Looking to the future, the new communal solidarity and local focus on fit-for-purpose solutions may be the only hope to prevent a complete collapse while national government sorts itself out,” said Dr Gouws. People are tired of having to bounce back and finding ways to cope with situations they are presented with or find themselves in. People want to be able to predict a problem, mitigate a crisis, or prevent the impact altogether, according to Dr Gouws.

Complete distrust exists between government and communities, and there is the need for government to approach communities and partner with them. Communities should be given the opportunity to show what has been done in communities, what has been achieved, and where they are going; there is insistence on this now. “The national government will remain as paralysed as it was, and the president will not make changes, especially to hold the corrupt to account.  Relying entirely on national policies and unexecuted plans should be avoided by local communities desperate for better lives,” said Dr Gouws. The expectation of investment to grow the economy and create the growth that people will feel on ground level will not happen until the next leadership conference, according to Dr Gouws.

Listen to a recording of the webinar below:


News Archive

Volksblad: Moshoeshoe Memorial Lecture
2006-05-27

27 Mei 2006

Moshoeshoe het mense saamgebind
KONING MOSHOESHOE kon bewys dat verskeidenheid ’n bindende eienskap kan wees. Dit blyk ’n sleutelbeginsel van sy leierskap te wees – en dit is nie ’n maklike een om te begryp nie.

Jy bereik die grootste eenheid tussen onderskeidende entiteite waar jy relatief vrye ruimte aan hulle gee om hul eiesoortige kenmerke na vore te bring.

Dít blyk uit prof. Njabulo Ndebele se gedenklesing oor koning Moshoeshoe.
Lesotho; het; onder Moshoeshoe se leierskap mense van verskeie dele van die subkontinent gelok.
Dié mense het hierheen gevlug van die verwoesting wat as lifaqane bekend geword het toe Shaka sy koninkryk met militêre onderwerping verstewig het.

Ndebele het gesê daar is algemene ooreenkoms dat die oorloë wat hieruit gespruit het, die maatskaplike grondslae van talle samelewings in Suider-Afrika geskud het.

“Dit was in dié konteks dat Moshoeshoe leierskap getoon het.”
Prof. Frederick Fourie, rektor en visekanselier van die Universiteit van die Vrystaat (UV), het gesê die lesing vorm deel van ’n groter debat oor leierskapmodelle, veral die konsep van Afrika-leierskap, en die voortgesette diskoers oor nasiebou en versoening.

Die Moshoeshoe-projek is in 2004 aan die UV begin om met Suid-Afrika se eerste dekade van demokrasie saam te val.
Die projek was deel van die UV se eeufeesvieringe in 2004.
Met dié projek word geprobeer om ’n groot Afrika-leier te vereer en die UV se verbintenis tot transformasie te toon sodat ’n ware inklusiewe en nie-rassige universiteit geskep kan word.

“As die stigter van die Basoeto-nasie, word daar wyd erkenning aan koning Moshoeshoe vir sy buitengewone leierskapstyl gegee.

“Diplomasie, versoening en vreedsame naasbestaan is van die kenmerke van sy leierskap, soos getoon in sy pogings om verskillende groepe in een nasie te verenig,” sê Fourie.

KONING MOSHOESHOE, een van Afrika se eertydse groot leiers. Hy is meer as 130 jaar gelede dood. Foto: verskaf

Waarde van openbare spraak ‘nou bedreig’
AANDUIDINGS bestaan dat die waarde van openbare spraak wat hoog deur koning Moshoeshoe van Lesotho op prys gestel is, nou onder ernstige bedreiging kan wees.

Om dié rede dra hy die koning Moshoeshoe-gedenklesing op aan al dié mense in Suid-Afrika en elders wat die moed het om hul oorwoë mening uit te druk oor belangrike sake wat die samelewing in die gesig staar, het prof. Njabulo Ndebele, visekanselier van die Universiteit van Kaapstad, gesê.

Ndebele, wêreldbekende skrywer, het gesê dié lesing kom op ’n kritieke punt in Suid-Afrika se nuwe demokrasie.
Dié lesing, om die buitengewone nalatenskap van een van Afrika se groot leiers te eer, is eergisteraand op die kampus van die Universiteit van die Vrystaat (UV) gelewer en het ’n staande toejuiging deur ’n groot gehoor uitgelok.

Ndebele het gesê die mense wat hul menings uitdruk oor belangrike sake, kan rubriekskrywers, redakteurs, kommentators, alle soorte kunstenaars, akademici, koerantbriefskrywers, nie-gewelddadige optoggangers met plakkate en strokiesprentkunstenaars wees “wat ’n spieël voor ons oë sit”.

“Selfs wanneer hulle dit waag op heilige gebied, soos sommige strokiesprentkunstenaars onlangs gedoen het, herinner hulle ons net dat selfs die heilige misbruik kan word vir doeleindes wat min met heiligheid te doen het.

“Dit is hul manier om ons te help, dalk meer diepsinnig as wat ons besef, om daardie einste ruimte van heiligheid in ons lewe te bewaar.

“Hulle verdiep ons insigte deur ons begrip te verdiep.
“Dit is gepas om hul dapperheid te vier,” het Ndebele gesê.
“Hulle herinner ons dat leierskap nie al is wat ons doen wanneer ons in ’n sekere magsposisie geplaas is om ’n organisasie of ’n sekere instelling te stuur nie.”

Hy het gesê onder die mense wat gevier moet word, sluit hy nie dié in wat deur haatspraak ander aanhits om geweld te pleeg; teen; mense; wat hul andersdenkende menings lug nie.

“Dit is nie met dapperheid dat hulle aanhits nie, maar weens hul toevlug tot die narkotiese beskerming van die skare.”

Mense voel glo ál kwesbaarder
Vise-kanselier lewer Moshoeshoe-gedenklesing
’n TOENEMENDE aantal hoogs intelligente, sensitiewe en toegewyde Suid-Afrikaners oor die klas-, ras- en kulturele spektrum heen bely dat hulle – soos nog nooit tevore nie – onseker en kwesbaar voel sedert 1994.

Só het prof. Njabulo Ndebele, vise-kanselier van die Universiteit van Kaapstad, gesê in die Universiteit van die Vrystaat (UV) se eerste koning Moshoeshoe-gedenklesing.

Die onderwerp was Reflections on the leadership challenges in South Africa.
Wanneer ontembare optimiste beken hulle voel dinge is van stryk, versprei die naarheid van angs. “Dit moet iets te doen hê met ’n ophoping van gebeure wat die gevoel van dreigende inploffing oordra.”

’n Gevoel heers dat Suid-Afrika ’n baie komplekse samelewing het wat liewer eenvoudige, gesentraliseerde beheer voortbring in die hoop dat dienslewering dan beter en vinniger gedryf kan word. Die kompleksiteit van beheer word dan in ’n enkele struktuur van gesag gevestig, eerder as in die afgewentelde strukture soos wat in die Grondwet beoog word.

Dat die afgewentelde strukture nie hul grondwetlik-gedefinieerde rolle verwerklik nie, moenie toegeskryf word aan die mislukking van die beheermeganisme nie.

“Dit is te vroeg om te sê dat wat ons sedert 1994 bereik het, nie gewerk het nie,” het Ndebele gesê.
Dit lyk of ’n kombinasie van omstandighede tot die “gevoel van ontknoping” lei.
“Ek wil dit vermy om te sê: ‘Kyk na Khutsong’, asof u sal verstaan wat ek bedoel wanneer ek sê u moet na Khutsong kyk.”
Sulke kennis lei tot wanhoop, want dit roep ’n werklikheid op wat só oorweldigend is dat dit fatalisties kan wees.
Ndebele het gesê niks kon meer vreesaanjaend wees as toe ’n komplot van die Boeremag oopgevlek en sekere Boeremaglede aangekeer is nie.

Sekere Boeremaglede het van ’n maksimum-sekuriteit-tronk ontsnap. “Sover ek weet, is hulle nie weer gevang nie.
“Wat is gedoen om die gaping te oorbrug?” was een van sy vrae hieroor.
“Van só ’n belangrike saak weet die publiek nie baie nie. Die karige kommunikasie kan die gevaarlike boodskap uitdra dat óf niks gedoen word nie, óf die staat in dié saak misluk.”

Hy het gevra: “Hoekom het die kwessie van munisipale afbakening tot die situasie in Khutsong gelei? Dit lyk of die probleem voortgaan, sonder ’n oplossing in sig.”

’n Aantal soortgelyke, oënskynlik plaaslike rebellies het oor die land heen plaasgevind. “Is hier ’n patroon?”
Ndebele het na die onlangse verhoor van oud-adj.pres. Jacob Zuma, wat van verkragting aangekla was, verwys.
Dié drama blyk ver van oor te wees. Dit beloof “om ons almal sonder verligting te hou, in ’n toestand van angs”.
Die gemene draad van dié gebeure is die gevoel van ’n oneindige spiraal van probleme wat vertroue tap. Daar kan ’n sterk suggestie in al dié gebeure wees “dat ons dalk nooit sosiale samehang in Suid-Afrika gehad het nie...”

“Wat ons sekerlik oor dekades gehad het, is ’n mobiliserende visie. Kan dit wees dat die mobiliserende visie onder die gewig van die werklikheid en omvang van maatskaplike heropbouing kraak en dat die legitieme raamwerk om oor dié probleme te debatteer ineenstort?”

‘Swart mense staar hulself in die gesig’
DIE swart meerderheid staar homself nou in die gesig: dalk werklik vir die eerste keer sedert 1994.
Só het prof. Njabulo Ndebele gesê toe hy die koning Moshoeshoe-gedenklesing by die Universiteit van die Vrystaat in Bloemfontein gelewer het.

Hy het gesê dit lyk of Suid-Afrika ’n meganisme nodig het om selfvertroue te bou.
Deur dié meganisme “kan ons die situasie waarin ons is, erken, wat dit ook al is”.
“Ons het ’n meganisme nodig wat die verskillende posisies van die mededingers sal bevestig en hul eerlikheid sal bekragtig op ’n manier wat die publiek vertroue sal gee dat werklike oplossings moontlik is.”

Dit is dié soort “openheid wat nooit maklik kom nie”, wat lei tot deurbraak-oplossings.
Ndebele het gesê ’n komplekse demokrasie soos Suid-Afrika s’n kan nie oorleef met ’n enkele gesag nie.
Net veelvuldige owerhede binne ’n grondwetlike raamwerk “het ’n ware kans”.
“Kan ’n deel van die probleem wees dat ons nie in staat is om die idee van ‘opposisie’ te hanteer nie?
“Ons is verskrik dat enige van ons ‘die opposisie’ kan word.
“Dit is tyd dat ons die koms voorsien van ’n oomblik wanneer daar nie meer ’n enkele, oorweldigende, dominante politieke mag is soos wat nou die geval is nie.”

Ndebele het gesê: “Ek glo ons het dalk ’n oomblik bereik wat nie fundamenteel verskillend is nie van die ontnugterende, tóg hartversterkende nasiebourealiteite wat gelei het tot Kemptonpark in die vroeë jare negentig.”

“Die verskil tussen toe en nou is dat die swart meerderheid nie nou na wit landgenote oor die onderhandelingstafel kyk nie.

“Die swart meerderheid staar homself in die gesig: dalk werklik vir die eerste keer sedert 1994.”
Dit is weer “tyd vir visie”, het Ndebele gesê.

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