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Opinion: The final push towards Elections 2021

28 October 2021 | Story Prof Sethulego Matebesi | Photo Sonia Small (Kaleidoscope Studios)

Dr Sethulego Matebesi — Prof Sethulego Matebesi is an Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Sociology at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Sethulego Matebesi, Associate Professor and Head of Department of Sociology, University of the Free State.

When a catastrophic accident cuts the first manned mission to Jupiter’s moons short in the Astronaut: The Last Push a 2012 American science fiction film – Michael Forrest, the sole remaining astronaut, must endure the three-year return trip to Earth alone. Similarly, how will the next five-year journey of local governance in South Africa manifest itself? Again, I reckon the responses from citizens will vary widely: from widespread cynicism to hope for a better future and from distrust of a dysfunctional system to the belief that service delivery will improve.

In an all-too-familiar scenario, political party campaigns have been littered with promises of how they best represent and advance voters’ interests. In doing so, two helpful facts about these campaigns emerge. The first is that the ANC, DA, EFF, and FF+ have realised that local contexts differ significantly and have framed their messages accordingly. A cursory glance at the broadcastings of these customised campaigns reveals that they aim to provide a safe psychological outlet for community-level concerns. The second is that, in general, the election messaging and adverts of the ANC ranged from apologies to bold statements about who wields power to change the face of local governance. Opposition parties focused on improving the local government system notoriously known for the disregard of citizens’ needs and providing an active voice for the voiceless.

And guess what?

Political parties and candidates may mobilise constituencies as much as they can. However, the next five years of local governance require a significant departure from its status of dysfunctionality to a competent, legitimate political institution that produces satisfactory political outcomes. This legislative and moral mandate depends entirely on local participation in elections.

The three dimensions of increasing voter participation

Better and more meaningful political participation in elections remains a concern in South Africa. In a report for the Ford Foundation, Hahrie Han, a political science professor at the University of California, proposes a framework that details increasing participation and making it more meaningful.

Firstly, people must be able to participate. Declaring election day as a public holiday, President Cyril Ramaphosa removed an important barrier to participation. While some may believe that election day will be just another public holiday, for others – particularly those who are working – there is no need to weigh up whether to take leave for a cause that will not significantly change their lives. Furthermore, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has demonstrated a sense of moral urgency by drawing unprecedented public attention to their voting processes and procedures to protect voters and election officials from spreading the virus at the polling stations.

Secondly, people must want to participate. Here, political parties and election candidates should not take voting as a taken-for-granted part of the repertoire of residents’ political activities. Election campaigns – both online (internet) and offline (door-to-door engagements, posters, and billboards) remain a powerful medium to improve visibility and deliver messages to solicit interest from citizens. But once these campaigns conclude, still, it remains an individual’s choice to want to participate in the elections. While it is difficult to assess the level of voter engagement with the election campaigns under COVID-19 restrictions, the general political climate in South Africa seems to be conducive for free and fair elections. Yet political assassinations continue to cast a dark shadow over the local government elections. This cruel feature of political life in the country serves as an ultimate intimidation tactic. It denies candidates the right to stand for election and citizens to choose their preferred public representatives.

Thirdly, Hahn argues that for people to want to participate in the political process, their participation must matter. Therefore, aside from building a sense of agency and encouraging greater participation in elections, people still need to be convinced that their vote counts and influences decisions at the local level, where voters have the chance to participate directly in the election of local councillors.

Disrupting the balance of power in local councils

Regardless of the challenges it faces, the ANC remains in pole position to retain most of the local councils it leads. I believe there is much to be discontented about, but opposition parties – including civic forums – have yet to build the power to break the stranglehold the ANC has on elections – and that is no small task.

Interestingly, in contrast to the DA, the ANC has paradoxically avoided announcing their mayoral candidates in direct response to prevent the electoral backlash it received in the metros during the 2016 local government elections. Yet, except for a few local councils in several provinces, the metros are precisely where the most significant disruption to the balance of power will occur.

Whether political parties will deal with the standoffs of coalition politics in hung councils, while broaching complex issues, remains a concern for South Africans. But elections remain an excellent opportunity for citizens to participate and influence local political decision-making.

News Archive

Fight against Ebola virus requires more research

2014-10-22

Dr Abdon Atangana
Photo: Ifa Tshishonge

Dr Abdon Atangana, a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Groundwater Studies at the University of the Free State (UFS), wrote an article related to the Ebola virus: Modelling the Ebola haemorrhagic fever with the beta-derivative: Deathly infection disease in West African countries.

“The filoviruses belong to a virus family named filoviridae. This virus can cause unembellished haemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman monkeys. In literature, only two members of this virus family have been mentioned, namely the Marburg virus and the Ebola virus. However, so far only five species of the Ebola virus have been identified, including: Ivory Coast, Sudan, Zaire, Reston and Bundibugyo.

“Among these families, the Ebola virus is the only member of the Zaire Ebola virus species and also the most dangerous, being responsible for the largest number of outbreaks.

“Ebola is an unusual, but fatal virus that causes bleeding inside and outside the body. As the virus spreads through the body, it damages the immune system and organs. Ultimately, it causes the blood-clotting levels in cells to drop. This leads to severe, uncontrollable bleeding.

Since all physical problems can be modelled via mathematical equation, Dr Atangana aimed in his research (the paper was published in BioMed Research International with impact factor 2.701) to analyse the spread of this deadly disease using mathematical equations. We shall propose a model underpinning the spread of this disease in a given Sub-Saharan African country,” he said.

The mathematical equations are used to predict the future behaviour of the disease, especially the spread of the disease among the targeted population. These mathematical equations are called differential equation and are only using the concept of rate of change over time.

However, there is several definitions for derivative, and the choice of the derivative used for such a model is very important, because the more accurate the model, the better results will be obtained. The classical derivative describes the change of rate, but it is an approximation of the real velocity of the object under study. The beta derivative is the modification of the classical derivative that takes into account the time scale and also has a new parameter that can be considered as the fractional order.

“I have used the beta derivative to model the spread of the fatal disease called Ebola, which has killed many people in the West African countries, including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, since December 2013,” he said.

The constructed mathematical equations were called Atangana’s Beta Ebola System of Equations (ABESE). “We did the investigation of the stable endemic points and presented the Eigen-Values using the Jacobian method. The homotopy decomposition method was used to solve the resulted system of equations. The convergence of the method was presented and some numerical simulations were done for different values of beta.

“The simulations showed that our model is more realistic for all betas less than 0.5. The model revealed that, if there were no recovery precaution for a given population in a West African country, the entire population of that country would all die in a very short period of time, even if the total number of the infected population is very small. In simple terms, the prediction revealed a fast spread of the virus among the targeted population. These results can be used to educate and inform people about the rapid spread of the deadly disease,” he said.

The spread of Ebola among people only occurs through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a person after symptoms have developed. Body fluid that may contain the Ebola virus includes saliva, mucus, vomit, faeces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen. Entry points include the nose, mouth, eyes, open wounds, cuts and abrasions. Note should be taken that contact with objects contaminated by the virus, particularly needles and syringes, may also transmit the infection.

“Based on the predictions in this paper, we are calling on more research regarding this disease; in particular, we are calling on researchers to pay attention to finding an efficient cure or more effective prevention, to reduce the risk of contamination,” Dr Atangana said.

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