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28 October 2021 | Story Prof Sethulego Matebesi | Photo Sonia Small (Kaleidoscope Studios)
Dr Sethulego Matebesi
Prof Sethulego Matebesi is an Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Sociology at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Sethulego Matebesi, Associate Professor and Head of Department of Sociology, University of the Free State.
When a catastrophic accident cuts the first manned mission to Jupiter’s moons short in the Astronaut: The Last Push a 2012 American science fiction film – Michael Forrest, the sole remaining astronaut, must endure the three-year return trip to Earth alone. Similarly, how will the next five-year journey of local governance in South Africa manifest itself? Again, I reckon the responses from citizens will vary widely: from widespread cynicism to hope for a better future and from distrust of a dysfunctional system to the belief that service delivery will improve.

In an all-too-familiar scenario, political party campaigns have been littered with promises of how they best represent and advance voters’ interests. In doing so, two helpful facts about these campaigns emerge. The first is that the ANC, DA, EFF, and FF+ have realised that local contexts differ significantly and have framed their messages accordingly. A cursory glance at the broadcastings of these customised campaigns reveals that they aim to provide a safe psychological outlet for community-level concerns. The second is that, in general, the election messaging and adverts of the ANC ranged from apologies to bold statements about who wields power to change the face of local governance. Opposition parties focused on improving the local government system notoriously known for the disregard of citizens’ needs and providing an active voice for the voiceless.

And guess what?

Political parties and candidates may mobilise constituencies as much as they can. However, the next five years of local governance require a significant departure from its status of dysfunctionality to a competent, legitimate political institution that produces satisfactory political outcomes. This legislative and moral mandate depends entirely on local participation in elections.

The three dimensions of increasing voter participation

Better and more meaningful political participation in elections remains a concern in South Africa. In a report for the Ford Foundation, Hahrie Han, a political science professor at the University of California, proposes a framework that details increasing participation and making it more meaningful.

Firstly, people must be able to participate. Declaring election day as a public holiday, President Cyril Ramaphosa removed an important barrier to participation. While some may believe that election day will be just another public holiday, for others – particularly those who are working – there is no need to weigh up whether to take leave for a cause that will not significantly change their lives. Furthermore, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has demonstrated a sense of moral urgency by drawing unprecedented public attention to their voting processes and procedures to protect voters and election officials from spreading the virus at the polling stations.

Secondly, people must want to participate. Here, political parties and election candidates should not take voting as a taken-for-granted part of the repertoire of residents’ political activities. Election campaigns – both online (internet) and offline (door-to-door engagements, posters, and billboards) remain a powerful medium to improve visibility and deliver messages to solicit interest from citizens. But once these campaigns conclude, still, it remains an individual’s choice to want to participate in the elections. While it is difficult to assess the level of voter engagement with the election campaigns under COVID-19 restrictions, the general political climate in South Africa seems to be conducive for free and fair elections. Yet political assassinations continue to cast a dark shadow over the local government elections. This cruel feature of political life in the country serves as an ultimate intimidation tactic. It denies candidates the right to stand for election and citizens to choose their preferred public representatives.

Thirdly, Hahn argues that for people to want to participate in the political process, their participation must matter. Therefore, aside from building a sense of agency and encouraging greater participation in elections, people still need to be convinced that their vote counts and influences decisions at the local level, where voters have the chance to participate directly in the election of local councillors.

Disrupting the balance of power in local councils 

Regardless of the challenges it faces, the ANC remains in pole position to retain most of the local councils it leads. I believe there is much to be discontented about, but opposition parties – including civic forums – have yet to build the power to break the stranglehold the ANC has on elections – and that is no small task.

Interestingly, in contrast to the DA, the ANC has paradoxically avoided announcing their mayoral candidates in direct response to prevent the electoral backlash it received in the metros during the 2016 local government elections. Yet, except for a few local councils in several provinces, the metros are precisely where the most significant disruption to the balance of power will occur. 

Whether political parties will deal with the standoffs of coalition politics in hung councils, while broaching complex issues, remains a concern for South Africans. But elections remain an excellent opportunity for citizens to participate and influence local political decision-making.

News Archive

Inaugural lecture: Prof. Phillipe Burger
2007-11-26

 

Attending the lecture were, from the left: Prof. Tienie Crous (Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences at the UFS), Prof. Phillipe Burger (Departmental Chairperson of the Department of Economics at the UFS), and Prof. Frederick Fourie (Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS).
Photo: Stephen Collet

 
A summary of an inaugural lecture presented by Prof. Phillipe Burger on the topic: “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

South African business cycle shows reduction in volatility

Better monetary policy and improvements in the financial sector that place less liquidity constraints on individuals is one of the main reasons for the reduction in the volatility of the South African economy. The improvement in access to the financial sector also enables individuals to manage their debt better.

These are some of the findings in an analysis on the volatility of the South African business cycle done by Prof. Philippe Burger, Departmental Chairperson of the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Economics.

Prof. Burger delivered his inaugural lecture last night (22 November 2007) on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein on the topic “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

In his lecture, Prof. Burger emphasised a few key aspects of the South African business cycle and indicated how it changed during the periods 1960-1976, 1976-1994 en 1994-2006.

With the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an indicator of the business cycle, the analysis identified the variables that showed the highest correlation with the GDP. During the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006, these included durable consumption, manufacturing investment, private sector investment, as well as investment in machinery and non-residential buildings. Other variables that also show a high correlation with the GDP are imports, non-durable consumption, investment in the financial services sector, investment by general government, as well as investment in residential buildings.

Prof. Burger’s analysis also shows that changes in durable consumption, investment in the manufacturing sector, investment in the private sector, as well as investment in non-residential buildings preceded changes in the GDP. If changes in a variable such as durable consumption precede changes in the GDP, it is an indication that durable consumption is one of the drivers of the business cycle. The up or down swing of durable consumption may, in other words, just as well contribute to an up or down swing in the business cycle.

A surprising finding of the analysis is the particularly strong role durable consumption has played in the business cycle since 1994. This finding is especially surprising due to the fact that durable consumption only constitutes about 12% of the total household consumption.

A further surprising finding is the particularly small role exports have been playing since 1960 as a driver of the business cycle. In South Africa it is still generally accepted that exports are one of the most important drivers of the business cycle. It is generally accepted that, should the business cycles of South Africa’s most important trade partners show an upward phase; these partners will purchase more from South Africa. This increase in exports will contribute to the South African economy moving upward. Prof. Burger’s analyses shows, however, that exports have generally never fulfil this role.

Over and above the identification of the drivers of the South African business cycle, Prof. Burger’s analysis also investigated the volatility of the business cycle.

When the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006 are compared, the analysis shows that the volatility of the business cycle has reduced since 1994 with more than half. The reduction in volatility can be traced to the reduction in the volatility of household consumption (especially durables and services), as well as a reduction in the volatility of investment in machinery, non-residential buildings and transport equipment. The last three coincide with the general reduction in the volatility of investment in the manufacturing sector. Investment in sectors such as electricity and transport (not to be confused with investment in transport equipment by various sectors) which are strongly dominated by the government, did not contribute to the decrease in volatility.

In his analysis, Prof. Burger supplies reasons for the reduction in volatility. One of the explanations is the reduction in the shocks affecting the economy – especially in the South African context. Another explanation is the application of an improved monetary policy by the South African Reserve Bank since the mid 1990’s. A third explanation is the better access to liquidity and credit since the mid 1990’s, which enables the better management of household finance and the absorption of financial shocks.

A further reason which contributed to the reduction in volatility in countries such as the United States of America’s business cycle is better inventory management. While the volatility of inventory in South Africa has also reduced there is, according to Prof. Burger, little proof that better inventory management contributed to the reduction in volatility of the GDP.

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