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07 October 2021 | Story André Damons
Dr Nicholas Pearce, Head of the Department of Surgery in the Faculty of Health Sciences at the UFS, Prof Adrian Puren, Acting Executive Director of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), Prof Glenda Gray, President and CEO of the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), and Dr Angelique Coetzee, Chairperson of the South African Medical Association (SAMA), were the panellists at the University of the Free State (UFS) Thought-Leader webinar, themed Why vaccinate?

Panellists at the University of the Free State (UFS) Thought-Leader webinar, themed Why vaccinate, felt it was critical for everyone in South Africa to get vaccinated in order to return to a sense of normality and to a university environment where lectures and learning not only happen in the lecture room, but in the ‘informal’ academic environment. 
Large numbers of the community need to be vaccinated to halt the progression of the pandemic and to maintain non-pharmaceutical interventions. 

Dr Nicholas Pearce, Head of the Department of Surgery in the Faculty of Health Sciences at the UFS, Prof Adrian Puren, Acting Executive Director for the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), Prof Glenda Gray, President and CEO of the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), and Dr Angelique Coetzee, Chairperson of the South African Medical Association (SAMA), were the panellists. This was the fifth webinar (28 September 2021) in the series, which is part of the Free State Literature Festival’s online initiative, VrySpraak-digitaal. 

Critical that everyone get vaccinated to return to a sense of normality

Dr Pearce indicated that patients seemed hesitant to present to both private and state health-care facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. This resulted in patients presenting in the final stages of cancer (stages 3 and 4 as opposed to stages 1 and 2). “The quicker we are able to exit the COVID-19 pandemic – and we will probably never totally eradicate it as it might become endemic – we can go back to treating other medical conditions that are currently not being optimally managed,” said Dr Pearce.

He is also concerned that the impact of the pandemic on other medical diseases (such as mental issues) will only become visible over a number of years. We must be careful that we do not forget about the non-COVID diseases, according to Dr Pearce. 

Dr Pearce said it was critical that everyone be vaccinated in order to return to a sense of normality. The COVID-19 protocols of social distancing and the wearing of masks have left a mental toll on us as a society. He said depression and suicide are on the rise, and if we want to go back to a sense of normality, a large number of people need to get vaccinated.

The economic problems caused by COVID-19 are huge, as a large number of people have stopped their medical aids in the Free State. Some of the other economic problems due to COVID-19 is that a larger number of the younger population got infected during the third wave, which means that many breadwinners lost their lives. In the medium and long term, this is going to have huge economic repercussions. 

Vaccine acceptance increased among South African adults

Armed with figures from a recent study by the Centre for Social Change at the University of Johannesburg (UJ) in collaboration with the Developmental, Capable and Ethical State research division of the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), Dr Coetzee illustrated the importance of getting vaccinated. 

The study found that even though hesitancy dropped by 5%, vaccine acceptance increased to 72% among South African adults.

She said according to the study, South Africa faces two significant challenges. “First, if all 72% were actually vaccinated, we would still be 8% short of the government’s target of 80%. So, we know that government has secured significant vaccines to vaccinate the entire adult population and that the supply of vaccines should no longer be a concern as we had seen earlier this year. What we need to do is to convince some of the people who are currently hesitating about the value of getting vaccinated.”

Acceptance among the older age group has risen substantially by 11% when comparing the results from round three (December 2020 to 6 January 2021) with round four (June 2021 to July 2021). Said Dr Coetzee: “But what is still concerning is that the acceptance among those aged 18 to 24 years has actually declined from 63% to 55%.”
The second challenge that came to the fore, continued Dr Coetzee, is one of access. “We have said many times before, vaccines should be brought to the people, and not the other way around. Finally, we are now seeing that this is starting to happen, but I think it is too slow – especially in the rural areas – and maybe a bit too late. Let’s see what is going to happen going forward.”

According to Dr Coetzee, the message must be clear: We need to vaccinate to save the health-care workers and to save lives and maintain the non-pharmaceutical interventions. She said it does not matter how many times people are told to get vaccinated, they still want to take their chances with the virus. 

Aim higher to achieve herd immunity

According to Prof Puren, the threshold for herd immunity of about 67% vaccinated adults in South Africa now seems to be more mythical. “We should be aiming higher than that, meaning 90% or higher in terms of the proportion of the population being vaccinated in order for us to have a more endemic control,” says Prof Puren. 

“A large number of people in South Africa have been infected with COVID-19, but there is still a significant proportion of people that have not experienced this virus. Herd immunity is about the indirect effect of protecting those individuals who are susceptible. So, it’s a particular threshold of the number of people who had an immune response.” 

Prof Puren said there will have to be a breakthrough in infections. Vaccines do work, they are effective. It is possible for us to achieve endemic control, and vaccines are the critical component to do that. 

Important benefits of vaccination are to gain control of the academic year

“The questions about the benefits of mandatory vaccination at university – to prevent hospitalisation and deaths.  With vaccination, you also impact isolation and quarantine challenges. If you have good coverage of vaccinations, institutions will not have to keep closing classrooms, or hostels. It will help keep the workforce open. 

“One of the important benefits of vaccinations is to gain control of the academic year. All the universities have suffered, having to move to online learning where a lot of students don’t have the luxury and privilege of having data available to them all the time.”

“The issue of hybrid learning is important, and you will still see a lot of hybrid learning going on as we go into different surges. But students still need interaction, they still need face-to-face teaching, and they still need the interaction, the socialisation. We have to maximise the university experience,” said Prof Gray.  

In answering the question – would it be beneficial for employees and institutions to formulate and implement a vaccination policy – Prof Gray said it was a critical move to open up academic institutions.  

She agreed with Prof Puren that the 70% is almost mythical, and that a higher level of vaccination will be needed to start controlling the pandemic. 

“Why should we vaccinate? Why should we try and control the transmissions in our country? We have to do that, because we need our economy to start, we see how we have been affected by being on the red lists of certain countries. This affects our economy, our tourism, and jobs. A lot of people have lost jobs. If we want to interface with the rest of the world, we are going to have a discussion around making sure citizens are vaccinated.”


• The recording of the webinar can be found here  

 Passcode: nJv%p7Rp

News Archive

Fight against Ebola virus requires more research
2014-10-22

 

Dr Abdon Atangana
Photo: Ifa Tshishonge
Dr Abdon Atangana, a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Groundwater Studies at the University of the Free State (UFS), wrote an article related to the Ebola virus: Modelling the Ebola haemorrhagic fever with the beta-derivative: Deathly infection disease in West African countries.

“The filoviruses belong to a virus family named filoviridae. This virus can cause unembellished haemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman monkeys. In literature, only two members of this virus family have been mentioned, namely the Marburg virus and the Ebola virus. However, so far only five species of the Ebola virus have been identified, including:  Ivory Coast, Sudan, Zaire, Reston and Bundibugyo.

“Among these families, the Ebola virus is the only member of the Zaire Ebola virus species and also the most dangerous, being responsible for the largest number of outbreaks.

“Ebola is an unusual, but fatal virus that causes bleeding inside and outside the body. As the virus spreads through the body, it damages the immune system and organs. Ultimately, it causes the blood-clotting levels in cells to drop. This leads to severe, uncontrollable bleeding.

Since all physical problems can be modelled via mathematical equation, Dr Atangana aimed in his research (the paper was published in BioMed Research International with impact factor 2.701) to analyse the spread of this deadly disease using mathematical equations. We shall propose a model underpinning the spread of this disease in a given Sub-Saharan African country,” he said.

The mathematical equations are used to predict the future behaviour of the disease, especially the spread of the disease among the targeted population. These mathematical equations are called differential equation and are only using the concept of rate of change over time.

However, there is several definitions for derivative, and the choice of the derivative used for such a model is very important, because the more accurate the model, the better results will be obtained.  The classical derivative describes the change of rate, but it is an approximation of the real velocity of the object under study. The beta derivative is the modification of the classical derivative that takes into account the time scale and also has a new parameter that can be considered as the fractional order.  

“I have used the beta derivative to model the spread of the fatal disease called Ebola, which has killed many people in the West African countries, including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, since December 2013,” he said.

The constructed mathematical equations were called Atangana’s Beta Ebola System of Equations (ABESE). “We did the investigation of the stable endemic points and presented the Eigen-Values using the Jacobian method. The homotopy decomposition method was used to solve the resulted system of equations. The convergence of the method was presented and some numerical simulations were done for different values of beta.

“The simulations showed that our model is more realistic for all betas less than 0.5.  The model revealed that, if there were no recovery precaution for a given population in a West African country, the entire population of that country would all die in a very short period of time, even if the total number of the infected population is very small.  In simple terms, the prediction revealed a fast spread of the virus among the targeted population. These results can be used to educate and inform people about the rapid spread of the deadly disease,” he said.

The spread of Ebola among people only occurs through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a person after symptoms have developed. Body fluid that may contain the Ebola virus includes saliva, mucus, vomit, faeces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen. Entry points include the nose, mouth, eyes, open wounds, cuts and abrasions. Note should be taken that contact with objects contaminated by the virus, particularly needles and syringes, may also transmit the infection.

“Based on the predictions in this paper, we are calling on more research regarding this disease; in particular, we are calling on researchers to pay attention to finding an efficient cure or more effective prevention, to reduce the risk of contamination,” Dr Atangana said.


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