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07 October 2021 | Story André Damons
Dr Nicholas Pearce, Head of the Department of Surgery in the Faculty of Health Sciences at the UFS, Prof Adrian Puren, Acting Executive Director of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), Prof Glenda Gray, President and CEO of the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), and Dr Angelique Coetzee, Chairperson of the South African Medical Association (SAMA), were the panellists at the University of the Free State (UFS) Thought-Leader webinar, themed Why vaccinate?

Panellists at the University of the Free State (UFS) Thought-Leader webinar, themed Why vaccinate, felt it was critical for everyone in South Africa to get vaccinated in order to return to a sense of normality and to a university environment where lectures and learning not only happen in the lecture room, but in the ‘informal’ academic environment. 
Large numbers of the community need to be vaccinated to halt the progression of the pandemic and to maintain non-pharmaceutical interventions. 

Dr Nicholas Pearce, Head of the Department of Surgery in the Faculty of Health Sciences at the UFS, Prof Adrian Puren, Acting Executive Director for the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), Prof Glenda Gray, President and CEO of the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), and Dr Angelique Coetzee, Chairperson of the South African Medical Association (SAMA), were the panellists. This was the fifth webinar (28 September 2021) in the series, which is part of the Free State Literature Festival’s online initiative, VrySpraak-digitaal. 

Critical that everyone get vaccinated to return to a sense of normality

Dr Pearce indicated that patients seemed hesitant to present to both private and state health-care facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. This resulted in patients presenting in the final stages of cancer (stages 3 and 4 as opposed to stages 1 and 2). “The quicker we are able to exit the COVID-19 pandemic – and we will probably never totally eradicate it as it might become endemic – we can go back to treating other medical conditions that are currently not being optimally managed,” said Dr Pearce.

He is also concerned that the impact of the pandemic on other medical diseases (such as mental issues) will only become visible over a number of years. We must be careful that we do not forget about the non-COVID diseases, according to Dr Pearce. 

Dr Pearce said it was critical that everyone be vaccinated in order to return to a sense of normality. The COVID-19 protocols of social distancing and the wearing of masks have left a mental toll on us as a society. He said depression and suicide are on the rise, and if we want to go back to a sense of normality, a large number of people need to get vaccinated.

The economic problems caused by COVID-19 are huge, as a large number of people have stopped their medical aids in the Free State. Some of the other economic problems due to COVID-19 is that a larger number of the younger population got infected during the third wave, which means that many breadwinners lost their lives. In the medium and long term, this is going to have huge economic repercussions. 

Vaccine acceptance increased among South African adults

Armed with figures from a recent study by the Centre for Social Change at the University of Johannesburg (UJ) in collaboration with the Developmental, Capable and Ethical State research division of the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), Dr Coetzee illustrated the importance of getting vaccinated. 

The study found that even though hesitancy dropped by 5%, vaccine acceptance increased to 72% among South African adults.

She said according to the study, South Africa faces two significant challenges. “First, if all 72% were actually vaccinated, we would still be 8% short of the government’s target of 80%. So, we know that government has secured significant vaccines to vaccinate the entire adult population and that the supply of vaccines should no longer be a concern as we had seen earlier this year. What we need to do is to convince some of the people who are currently hesitating about the value of getting vaccinated.”

Acceptance among the older age group has risen substantially by 11% when comparing the results from round three (December 2020 to 6 January 2021) with round four (June 2021 to July 2021). Said Dr Coetzee: “But what is still concerning is that the acceptance among those aged 18 to 24 years has actually declined from 63% to 55%.”
The second challenge that came to the fore, continued Dr Coetzee, is one of access. “We have said many times before, vaccines should be brought to the people, and not the other way around. Finally, we are now seeing that this is starting to happen, but I think it is too slow – especially in the rural areas – and maybe a bit too late. Let’s see what is going to happen going forward.”

According to Dr Coetzee, the message must be clear: We need to vaccinate to save the health-care workers and to save lives and maintain the non-pharmaceutical interventions. She said it does not matter how many times people are told to get vaccinated, they still want to take their chances with the virus. 

Aim higher to achieve herd immunity

According to Prof Puren, the threshold for herd immunity of about 67% vaccinated adults in South Africa now seems to be more mythical. “We should be aiming higher than that, meaning 90% or higher in terms of the proportion of the population being vaccinated in order for us to have a more endemic control,” says Prof Puren. 

“A large number of people in South Africa have been infected with COVID-19, but there is still a significant proportion of people that have not experienced this virus. Herd immunity is about the indirect effect of protecting those individuals who are susceptible. So, it’s a particular threshold of the number of people who had an immune response.” 

Prof Puren said there will have to be a breakthrough in infections. Vaccines do work, they are effective. It is possible for us to achieve endemic control, and vaccines are the critical component to do that. 

Important benefits of vaccination are to gain control of the academic year

“The questions about the benefits of mandatory vaccination at university – to prevent hospitalisation and deaths.  With vaccination, you also impact isolation and quarantine challenges. If you have good coverage of vaccinations, institutions will not have to keep closing classrooms, or hostels. It will help keep the workforce open. 

“One of the important benefits of vaccinations is to gain control of the academic year. All the universities have suffered, having to move to online learning where a lot of students don’t have the luxury and privilege of having data available to them all the time.”

“The issue of hybrid learning is important, and you will still see a lot of hybrid learning going on as we go into different surges. But students still need interaction, they still need face-to-face teaching, and they still need the interaction, the socialisation. We have to maximise the university experience,” said Prof Gray.  

In answering the question – would it be beneficial for employees and institutions to formulate and implement a vaccination policy – Prof Gray said it was a critical move to open up academic institutions.  

She agreed with Prof Puren that the 70% is almost mythical, and that a higher level of vaccination will be needed to start controlling the pandemic. 

“Why should we vaccinate? Why should we try and control the transmissions in our country? We have to do that, because we need our economy to start, we see how we have been affected by being on the red lists of certain countries. This affects our economy, our tourism, and jobs. A lot of people have lost jobs. If we want to interface with the rest of the world, we are going to have a discussion around making sure citizens are vaccinated.”


• The recording of the webinar can be found here  

 Passcode: nJv%p7Rp

News Archive

UFS alumnus receives PhD in Statistics from the University of Oxford
2016-06-03

Description: DW Bester  Tags: DW Bester

In May of this year, DW Bester obtained
a DPhil in Statistics at the University of
Oxford.
Photo: Supplied

On 14 May this year, Dr DW Bester received a DPhil in Statistics from the University of Oxford. The entire ceremony, which was held in the Sheldonian Theatre in Oxford, was conducted in Latin, as has been the case for the past 800 years.

Dr Bester completed his undergraduate studies and his honours degree at the University of the Free State (UFS). “At first, I was only planning to study for a master’s degree, but was privileged to get an opportunity to do a PhD as well. I didn’t think twice!” he says.

Studies at the University of Oxford


Universities in England do not require a master’s degree for PhD studies. With the help of Prof Max Finkelstein from the UFS Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, Dr Bester registered for the DPhil programme in Statistics directly after his honours studies.

“The title of my thesis was: Joint survival models: A Bayesian investigation of longitudinal volatility. It dealt with a problem in the medical field to determine the cause of stroke risk: is it the absolute level of blood pressure, or the volatility thereof? The analysis of this question led to interesting models which needed advanced application techniques. I had to study these techniques and write programmes for their application.

Although Dr Bester is working currently as the technical head of a company that calculates insurance for power stations, satellites, rockets, and cyber risks, he would like to continue working with his Oxford supervisor in future to make the techniques they have developed more accessible for researchers outside of the field of statistics.
 
“Studying at Oxford requires hard work, perseverance, and a lot of luck. Luck plays a big role, since there are no guarantees that hard work will ensure you a spot in one of the top universities.

Regarding his studies at Oxford, Dr Bester thinks back on his exposure to the GNU/Linux operating system, and free software. “I have seen how valuable this is for analyses in practice. I also had the privilege of meeting the father of free software, Richard Stallman,” Dr Bester says.

2011 Rhodes Scholar

He was elected as Rhodes Scholar in 2011. According to Dr Bester, who has been interested in Mathematics since high school, the Rhodes scholarship was something of a fluke. He applied for the Rhodes scholarship on the recommendation of Prof Robert Schall of the Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science.

Role of the UFS in his successes


In addition to the continued support from the team of passionate professors and lecturers at the UFS, the actuarial degree at the UFS is fraught with statistics. Emphasis is also placed on Bayesian statistics. This was crucial to his studies at Oxford. According to Dr Bester, this topic is emphasised strongly in the international statistics community.

Dr Bester regards the work done by two of his lecturers, Michael von Maltitz and Sean van der Merwe, among his highlights at the UFS. Since our first year, they have created an atmosphere of camaraderie among the students. “I think this contributed to the success of everybody. They also make an effort to present topics outside of the syllabus regularly,” says Bester.

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