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07 October 2021 | Story André Damons
Dr Nicholas Pearce, Head of the Department of Surgery in the Faculty of Health Sciences at the UFS, Prof Adrian Puren, Acting Executive Director of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), Prof Glenda Gray, President and CEO of the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), and Dr Angelique Coetzee, Chairperson of the South African Medical Association (SAMA), were the panellists at the University of the Free State (UFS) Thought-Leader webinar, themed Why vaccinate?

Panellists at the University of the Free State (UFS) Thought-Leader webinar, themed Why vaccinate, felt it was critical for everyone in South Africa to get vaccinated in order to return to a sense of normality and to a university environment where lectures and learning not only happen in the lecture room, but in the ‘informal’ academic environment. 
Large numbers of the community need to be vaccinated to halt the progression of the pandemic and to maintain non-pharmaceutical interventions. 

Dr Nicholas Pearce, Head of the Department of Surgery in the Faculty of Health Sciences at the UFS, Prof Adrian Puren, Acting Executive Director for the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), Prof Glenda Gray, President and CEO of the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), and Dr Angelique Coetzee, Chairperson of the South African Medical Association (SAMA), were the panellists. This was the fifth webinar (28 September 2021) in the series, which is part of the Free State Literature Festival’s online initiative, VrySpraak-digitaal. 

Critical that everyone get vaccinated to return to a sense of normality

Dr Pearce indicated that patients seemed hesitant to present to both private and state health-care facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. This resulted in patients presenting in the final stages of cancer (stages 3 and 4 as opposed to stages 1 and 2). “The quicker we are able to exit the COVID-19 pandemic – and we will probably never totally eradicate it as it might become endemic – we can go back to treating other medical conditions that are currently not being optimally managed,” said Dr Pearce.

He is also concerned that the impact of the pandemic on other medical diseases (such as mental issues) will only become visible over a number of years. We must be careful that we do not forget about the non-COVID diseases, according to Dr Pearce. 

Dr Pearce said it was critical that everyone be vaccinated in order to return to a sense of normality. The COVID-19 protocols of social distancing and the wearing of masks have left a mental toll on us as a society. He said depression and suicide are on the rise, and if we want to go back to a sense of normality, a large number of people need to get vaccinated.

The economic problems caused by COVID-19 are huge, as a large number of people have stopped their medical aids in the Free State. Some of the other economic problems due to COVID-19 is that a larger number of the younger population got infected during the third wave, which means that many breadwinners lost their lives. In the medium and long term, this is going to have huge economic repercussions. 

Vaccine acceptance increased among South African adults

Armed with figures from a recent study by the Centre for Social Change at the University of Johannesburg (UJ) in collaboration with the Developmental, Capable and Ethical State research division of the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), Dr Coetzee illustrated the importance of getting vaccinated. 

The study found that even though hesitancy dropped by 5%, vaccine acceptance increased to 72% among South African adults.

She said according to the study, South Africa faces two significant challenges. “First, if all 72% were actually vaccinated, we would still be 8% short of the government’s target of 80%. So, we know that government has secured significant vaccines to vaccinate the entire adult population and that the supply of vaccines should no longer be a concern as we had seen earlier this year. What we need to do is to convince some of the people who are currently hesitating about the value of getting vaccinated.”

Acceptance among the older age group has risen substantially by 11% when comparing the results from round three (December 2020 to 6 January 2021) with round four (June 2021 to July 2021). Said Dr Coetzee: “But what is still concerning is that the acceptance among those aged 18 to 24 years has actually declined from 63% to 55%.”
The second challenge that came to the fore, continued Dr Coetzee, is one of access. “We have said many times before, vaccines should be brought to the people, and not the other way around. Finally, we are now seeing that this is starting to happen, but I think it is too slow – especially in the rural areas – and maybe a bit too late. Let’s see what is going to happen going forward.”

According to Dr Coetzee, the message must be clear: We need to vaccinate to save the health-care workers and to save lives and maintain the non-pharmaceutical interventions. She said it does not matter how many times people are told to get vaccinated, they still want to take their chances with the virus. 

Aim higher to achieve herd immunity

According to Prof Puren, the threshold for herd immunity of about 67% vaccinated adults in South Africa now seems to be more mythical. “We should be aiming higher than that, meaning 90% or higher in terms of the proportion of the population being vaccinated in order for us to have a more endemic control,” says Prof Puren. 

“A large number of people in South Africa have been infected with COVID-19, but there is still a significant proportion of people that have not experienced this virus. Herd immunity is about the indirect effect of protecting those individuals who are susceptible. So, it’s a particular threshold of the number of people who had an immune response.” 

Prof Puren said there will have to be a breakthrough in infections. Vaccines do work, they are effective. It is possible for us to achieve endemic control, and vaccines are the critical component to do that. 

Important benefits of vaccination are to gain control of the academic year

“The questions about the benefits of mandatory vaccination at university – to prevent hospitalisation and deaths.  With vaccination, you also impact isolation and quarantine challenges. If you have good coverage of vaccinations, institutions will not have to keep closing classrooms, or hostels. It will help keep the workforce open. 

“One of the important benefits of vaccinations is to gain control of the academic year. All the universities have suffered, having to move to online learning where a lot of students don’t have the luxury and privilege of having data available to them all the time.”

“The issue of hybrid learning is important, and you will still see a lot of hybrid learning going on as we go into different surges. But students still need interaction, they still need face-to-face teaching, and they still need the interaction, the socialisation. We have to maximise the university experience,” said Prof Gray.  

In answering the question – would it be beneficial for employees and institutions to formulate and implement a vaccination policy – Prof Gray said it was a critical move to open up academic institutions.  

She agreed with Prof Puren that the 70% is almost mythical, and that a higher level of vaccination will be needed to start controlling the pandemic. 

“Why should we vaccinate? Why should we try and control the transmissions in our country? We have to do that, because we need our economy to start, we see how we have been affected by being on the red lists of certain countries. This affects our economy, our tourism, and jobs. A lot of people have lost jobs. If we want to interface with the rest of the world, we are going to have a discussion around making sure citizens are vaccinated.”


• The recording of the webinar can be found here  

 Passcode: nJv%p7Rp

News Archive

Inaugural lecture: Prof. Phillipe Burger
2007-11-26

 

Attending the lecture were, from the left: Prof. Tienie Crous (Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences at the UFS), Prof. Phillipe Burger (Departmental Chairperson of the Department of Economics at the UFS), and Prof. Frederick Fourie (Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS).
Photo: Stephen Collet

 
A summary of an inaugural lecture presented by Prof. Phillipe Burger on the topic: “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

South African business cycle shows reduction in volatility

Better monetary policy and improvements in the financial sector that place less liquidity constraints on individuals is one of the main reasons for the reduction in the volatility of the South African economy. The improvement in access to the financial sector also enables individuals to manage their debt better.

These are some of the findings in an analysis on the volatility of the South African business cycle done by Prof. Philippe Burger, Departmental Chairperson of the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Economics.

Prof. Burger delivered his inaugural lecture last night (22 November 2007) on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein on the topic “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

In his lecture, Prof. Burger emphasised a few key aspects of the South African business cycle and indicated how it changed during the periods 1960-1976, 1976-1994 en 1994-2006.

With the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an indicator of the business cycle, the analysis identified the variables that showed the highest correlation with the GDP. During the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006, these included durable consumption, manufacturing investment, private sector investment, as well as investment in machinery and non-residential buildings. Other variables that also show a high correlation with the GDP are imports, non-durable consumption, investment in the financial services sector, investment by general government, as well as investment in residential buildings.

Prof. Burger’s analysis also shows that changes in durable consumption, investment in the manufacturing sector, investment in the private sector, as well as investment in non-residential buildings preceded changes in the GDP. If changes in a variable such as durable consumption precede changes in the GDP, it is an indication that durable consumption is one of the drivers of the business cycle. The up or down swing of durable consumption may, in other words, just as well contribute to an up or down swing in the business cycle.

A surprising finding of the analysis is the particularly strong role durable consumption has played in the business cycle since 1994. This finding is especially surprising due to the fact that durable consumption only constitutes about 12% of the total household consumption.

A further surprising finding is the particularly small role exports have been playing since 1960 as a driver of the business cycle. In South Africa it is still generally accepted that exports are one of the most important drivers of the business cycle. It is generally accepted that, should the business cycles of South Africa’s most important trade partners show an upward phase; these partners will purchase more from South Africa. This increase in exports will contribute to the South African economy moving upward. Prof. Burger’s analyses shows, however, that exports have generally never fulfil this role.

Over and above the identification of the drivers of the South African business cycle, Prof. Burger’s analysis also investigated the volatility of the business cycle.

When the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006 are compared, the analysis shows that the volatility of the business cycle has reduced since 1994 with more than half. The reduction in volatility can be traced to the reduction in the volatility of household consumption (especially durables and services), as well as a reduction in the volatility of investment in machinery, non-residential buildings and transport equipment. The last three coincide with the general reduction in the volatility of investment in the manufacturing sector. Investment in sectors such as electricity and transport (not to be confused with investment in transport equipment by various sectors) which are strongly dominated by the government, did not contribute to the decrease in volatility.

In his analysis, Prof. Burger supplies reasons for the reduction in volatility. One of the explanations is the reduction in the shocks affecting the economy – especially in the South African context. Another explanation is the application of an improved monetary policy by the South African Reserve Bank since the mid 1990’s. A third explanation is the better access to liquidity and credit since the mid 1990’s, which enables the better management of household finance and the absorption of financial shocks.

A further reason which contributed to the reduction in volatility in countries such as the United States of America’s business cycle is better inventory management. While the volatility of inventory in South Africa has also reduced there is, according to Prof. Burger, little proof that better inventory management contributed to the reduction in volatility of the GDP.

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