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The last days of plenty: Prof Mukwada delivers his inaugural lecture

26 August 2022 | Story NONSINDISO QWABE | Photo Boitumelo Molefe

South Africa is generally regarded as a thirsty country due to water scarcity nationally. Even a rise of 0,5 °C in climate temperatures could have devastating effects on the environment.

Delivering his inaugural lecture on 22 August 2022 – a first for the Qwaqwa Campus in many years – Prof Geofrey Mukwada of the Department of Geography at the University of the Free State (UFS) Qwaqwa Campus painted a picture of the long-term effects of climate change on ecological, social, and economic aspects of the environment. The effects of climate change are being felt in all regions of the world, and the Drakensberg region in particular is beginning to bear the brunt.

Elevation-dependent warming a threat to socio-ecological systems

Introducing his topic, The last days of plenty: an assessment of elevation-dependent warming in the Drakensberg Mountain region between 1980 and 2018 and its potential implications for social-ecological systems in the region and downstream communities, Prof Mukwada said ‘last days’ was a euphemism used figuratively to imply the impending loss of environmental resources in the mountains because of climate change.

According to Prof Mukwada, elevation-dependent warming in the Drakensberg would pose serious implications for the overall rural livelihoods, regional trade, and biodiversity conservation.

“The Drakensberg Mountains is made up of a chain of several mountains and is home to a lot of activities. It is important for rural livelihood, including agriculture, cultivation of different forms, fisheries, and tourism, and if the climate is therefore changing and elevation-dependent warming is taking place, we see a threat to socio-ecological systems in many ways.”

In his lecture, Prof Mukwada discussed the three-decade-long investigation to determine if elevation-dependent warming is taking place at several points of the mountains, and to assess its environmental implications for the region and downstream communities. Using a time-series analysis standardised precipitation and evaporation index (SPEI) and monthly maximum temperature and locational and elevation data, the investigation monitored climate change trends between 1980 and 2018.

Development of research-based solutions

He said results did not confirm the existence of elevation-dependent warming in the Drakensberg Mountain region, but statistically significant evidence has shown that the region is becoming warmer and facing increasing aridity.

“It is worrisome in the sense that even such a small change can have devastating effects on the environment.”

In order to avert these problems, Prof Mukwada said a special climate adaptation plan for the region was necessary. The university plays a key role in this, as it can provide guidance on the process of redefining knowledge, scientific understanding and truth, in order to promote sound mountain development interventions and programmes. “We need to shift towards research-based solutions.”

Prof Mukwada is a C2 NRF-rated researcher with expertise in the application of remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in integrated scientific and multidisciplinary environmental research.

News Archive

UFS scientists involved in groundbreaking research to protect rhino horns

2010-07-27

Pictured from the left are: Prof. Paul Grobler (UFS), Prof. Antoinette Kotze (NZG) and Ms. Karen Ehlers (UFS).
Photo: Supplied

Scientists at the University of the Free State (UFS) are involved in a research study that will help to trace the source of any southern white rhino product to a specific geographic location.

This is an initiative of the National Zoological Gardens of South Africa (NZG).

Prof. Paul Grobler, who is heading the project in the Department of Genetics at the UFS, said that the research might even allow the identification of the individual animal from which a product was derived. This would allow law enforcement agencies not only to determine with certainty whether rhino horn, traded illegally on the international black market, had its origin in South Africa, but also from which region of South Africa the product came.

This additional knowledge is expected to have a major impact on the illicit trade in rhino horn and provide a potent legal club to get at rhino horn smugglers and traders.

The full research team consists of Prof. Grobler; Christiaan Labuschagne, a Ph.D. student at the UFS; Prof. Antoinette Kotze from the NZG, who is also an affiliated professor at the UFS; and Dr Desire Dalton, also from the NZG.

The team’s research involves the identification of small differences in the genetic code among white rhino populations in different regions of South Africa. The genetic code of every species is unique, and is composed of a sequence of the four nucleotide bases G, A, T and C that are inherited from one generation to the next. When one nucleotide base is changed or mutated in an individual, this mutated base is also inherited by the individual's progeny.

If, after many generations, this changed base is present in at least 1% of the individuals of a group, it is described as a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), pronounced "snip". Breeding populations that are geographically and reproductively isolated often contain different patterns of such SNPs, which act as a unique genetic signature for each population.

The team is assembling a detailed list of all SNPs found in white rhinos from different regions in South Africa. The work is done in collaboration with the Pretoria-based company, Inqaba Biotech, who is performing the nucleotide sequencing that is required for the identification of the SNPs.

Financial support for the project is provided by the Advanced Biomolecular Research cluster at the UFS.

The southern white rhino was once thought to be extinct, but in a conservation success story the species was boosted from an initial population of about 100 individuals located in KwaZulu-Natal at the end of the 19th century, to the present population of about 15 000 individuals. The southern white rhino is still, however, listed as “near threatened” by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF).

Media Release:
Mangaliso Radebe
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2828
Cell: 078 460 3320
E-mail: radebemt@ufs.ac.za
27 July 2010

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