South Africa is generally regarded as a thirsty country due to water scarcity nationally. Even a rise of 0,5 °C in climate temperatures could have devastating effects on the environment.
Delivering his inaugural lecture on 22 August 2022 – a first for the
Qwaqwa Campus in many years –
Prof Geofrey Mukwada of the Department of Geography at the University of the Free State (UFS) Qwaqwa Campus painted a picture of the long-term effects of climate change on ecological, social, and economic aspects of the environment. The effects of climate change are being felt in all regions of the world, and the Drakensberg region in particular is beginning to bear the brunt.
Elevation-dependent warming a threat to socio-ecological systems
Introducing his topic, The last days of plenty: an assessment of elevation-dependent warming in the Drakensberg Mountain region between 1980 and 2018 and its potential implications for social-ecological systems in the region and downstream communities, Prof Mukwada said ‘last days’ was a euphemism used figuratively to imply the impending loss of environmental resources in the mountains because of climate change.
According to Prof Mukwada, elevation-dependent warming in the Drakensberg would pose serious implications for the overall rural livelihoods, regional trade, and biodiversity conservation.
“The Drakensberg Mountains is made up of a chain of several mountains and is home to a lot of activities. It is important for rural livelihood, including agriculture, cultivation of different forms, fisheries, and tourism, and if the climate is therefore changing and elevation-dependent warming is taking place, we see a threat to socio-ecological systems in many ways.”
In his lecture, Prof Mukwada discussed the three-decade-long investigation to determine if elevation-dependent warming is taking place at several points of the mountains, and to assess its environmental implications for the region and downstream communities. Using a time-series analysis
standardised precipitation and evaporation index (SPEI) and monthly maximum temperature and locational and elevation data, the investigation monitored climate change trends between 1980 and 2018.
Development of research-based solutions
He said results did not confirm the existence of elevation-dependent warming in the Drakensberg Mountain region, but statistically significant evidence has shown that the region is becoming warmer and facing increasing aridity.
“It is worrisome in the sense that even such a small change can have devastating effects on the environment.”
In order to avert these problems, Prof Mukwada said a special climate adaptation plan for the region was necessary. The university plays a key role in this, as it can provide guidance on the process of redefining knowledge, scientific understanding and truth, in order to promote sound mountain development interventions and programmes. “We need to shift towards research-based solutions.”
Prof Mukwada is a C2 NRF-rated researcher with expertise in the application of remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in integrated scientific and multidisciplinary environmental research.