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The last days of plenty: Prof Mukwada delivers his inaugural lecture

26 August 2022 | Story NONSINDISO QWABE | Photo Boitumelo Molefe

South Africa is generally regarded as a thirsty country due to water scarcity nationally. Even a rise of 0,5 °C in climate temperatures could have devastating effects on the environment.

Delivering his inaugural lecture on 22 August 2022 – a first for the Qwaqwa Campus in many years – Prof Geofrey Mukwada of the Department of Geography at the University of the Free State (UFS) Qwaqwa Campus painted a picture of the long-term effects of climate change on ecological, social, and economic aspects of the environment. The effects of climate change are being felt in all regions of the world, and the Drakensberg region in particular is beginning to bear the brunt.

Elevation-dependent warming a threat to socio-ecological systems

Introducing his topic, The last days of plenty: an assessment of elevation-dependent warming in the Drakensberg Mountain region between 1980 and 2018 and its potential implications for social-ecological systems in the region and downstream communities, Prof Mukwada said ‘last days’ was a euphemism used figuratively to imply the impending loss of environmental resources in the mountains because of climate change.

According to Prof Mukwada, elevation-dependent warming in the Drakensberg would pose serious implications for the overall rural livelihoods, regional trade, and biodiversity conservation.

“The Drakensberg Mountains is made up of a chain of several mountains and is home to a lot of activities. It is important for rural livelihood, including agriculture, cultivation of different forms, fisheries, and tourism, and if the climate is therefore changing and elevation-dependent warming is taking place, we see a threat to socio-ecological systems in many ways.”

In his lecture, Prof Mukwada discussed the three-decade-long investigation to determine if elevation-dependent warming is taking place at several points of the mountains, and to assess its environmental implications for the region and downstream communities. Using a time-series analysis standardised precipitation and evaporation index (SPEI) and monthly maximum temperature and locational and elevation data, the investigation monitored climate change trends between 1980 and 2018.

Development of research-based solutions

He said results did not confirm the existence of elevation-dependent warming in the Drakensberg Mountain region, but statistically significant evidence has shown that the region is becoming warmer and facing increasing aridity.

“It is worrisome in the sense that even such a small change can have devastating effects on the environment.”

In order to avert these problems, Prof Mukwada said a special climate adaptation plan for the region was necessary. The university plays a key role in this, as it can provide guidance on the process of redefining knowledge, scientific understanding and truth, in order to promote sound mountain development interventions and programmes. “We need to shift towards research-based solutions.”

Prof Mukwada is a C2 NRF-rated researcher with expertise in the application of remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in integrated scientific and multidisciplinary environmental research.

News Archive

Culture contributes to success of UFS rugby teams

2015-12-15

The Sevens team of the University of the Free State followed in the footsteps of the Shimlas when the team was crowned national champion. The Kovsies Sevens team beat Tukkies April in the final of the Varsity Sevens tournament. Photo: Supplied.

The University of the Free State (UFS) Rugby Club has succeeded once again in creating a culture of values.

Marius van Rensburg, Chairman of the UFS Rugby Club, believes this was one of the reasons why Kovsies had so many rugby successes this year.

The UFS knows that money, which is more abundant at bigger universities, won't change the club into a rugby force, but "there is something special here," he said.

Van Rensburg added that the success of Shimlas, who won the Varsity Cup for the first time, also helped to build a winning culture.

Seven finals

Seven of the UFS Rugby Club's teams played in finals during 2015.

Shimlas beat the Pukke in the Varsity Cup final at Shimla Park on the Bloemfontein Campus.

The Kovsie Young Guns (against Tukkies) and Vishuis (Mopanie from Tukkies) got stuck in Bloemfontein in Varsity Cup finals.

The Shimlas won Section B of the USSA tournament in Johannesburg (against Madibaz in the final).

A strong Irawa rugby team beat Shimlas in the City Cup.

The Kovsie Sevens team was crowned as the Varsity Champions in Cape Town after beating Tukkies in the final. The team was beaten by Maties in the final of the USSA Sevens tournament in George.

Shimlas lays foundation

According to Van Rensburg, the Varsity Cup triumph by Shimlas laid a good foundation.

“After what happened in the Varsity Cup, the winning culture kind of washed over the other teams,” he said.

He also thinks the 2015 successes didn't happen overnight, but that the club managed to bring back good values. He feels that Franco Smith, the former Shimlas coach who is the Cheetahs’ current coach, also played an important part.

Greater pressure in 2016

In 2016, the UFS's rugby teams will have a greater target on their backs.

Van Rensburg agrees that there will be greater pressure, but the structures are in place.

He feels that Varsity Cup success goes together with a touch of luck, of which Shimlas had some this year.

“Looking at the draw, Shimlas will play their first two matches away against Ikeys and Tukkies. Therefore, after two matches, one might have no league points, and that would place the team under immediate pressure.”

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