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11 March 2022 | Story Prof Frikkie Maré | Photo Supplied
Prof Frikkie Maré is from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Frikkie Maré, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.
In William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, Mark Antony utters the words: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war,” after learning about the murder of Julius Caesar. With these words he meant that chaos would ensue (havoc) to create the opportunity for violence (let slip the dogs of war).

The recent invasion (or military operation, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin) by Russian armed forces into Ukraine brought the famous words of Shakespeare to mind. Putin cried “Havoc!” and his troops created chaos in Ukraine. This is, however, not where it stopped because the dogs of war have been released into the rest of the world.

What is the impact on South Africa?

The day after the invasion we felt the bite of the dogs of war in South Africa. The rand suddenly weakened against the dollar, oil and gold prices increased sharply, and grain and oilseed prices on commodity markets increased 

This was before the rest of the world started to implement sanctions against Russia, which could be described as a shock reaction due to uncertainty as to how the situation would unfold. In the days after the initial market reaction we saw the markets actually “cool down” a bit, with most sharp initial reactions starting to change back to former positions. This period was, however, short-lived when the world hit back by closing airspace and borders and refusing to import products from Russia or export to them. The sanctions were in solidarity with Ukraine as an attempt to bring the Russian economy to its knees and force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine.

Although the sanctions against Russia should certainly be successful over the long term, it does not change much in the short term and we will have to deal with the international effects of this conflict. The question then is, how will this affect South Africa?

Although there are no straightforward answers, as the impact will depend on what one’s role is in the economy. One thing for certain is that the total cost will outnumber the benefits. What affects everyone in South Africa, and the starting point of many secondary effects, is the increase in the price of crude oil. Russia is the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world and if the West is going to ban the import of Russian oil we will have an international shortage. Although the banning of Russian oil is the right thing to do to support Ukraine, it will have devastating effects on all countries in the world, with sharp increases in inflation.  

The increase in the price of oil not only drives up the cost of transportation of people and products, but also manufacturing costs. Fertiliser prices are correlated with the oil price, and it will thus drive up the production cost of grain and oilseeds.

Speaking of grain and oilseed prices, the Black Sea region (which includes Russia and Ukraine), are major exporters of wheat and sunflower seed and oil. The prices of these commodities have soared in international and South Africa markets over the past few weeks. Although it might seem like good news for our farmers, the increase in prices are offset by high fertiliser prices and the local shortage of fertiliser. This may lead to fewer hectares of wheat being planted this year in the winter rainfall regions.  

Nothing good is coming from this situation

In terms of agricultural commodities, both Russia and Ukraine are important importers of South African products, especially citrus, stone fruit and grapes.  Alternative markets now need to be found for these products which will affect prices negatively.

Although one needs to write a thesis to explain all the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the dogs of war have been slipped, and it is clear from the few examples that nothing good is coming from this situation. In short, we will see higher fuel prices (maybe not R40/litre, but R25 to R30/litre is possible), higher food prices, higher inflation and a higher interest rate.  

These factors affect all South-Africans, especially the poor and some in the middle class who will struggle in the short term. The time has come to cut down on luxuries and tighten belts to survive in the short term until there is certainty about how the havoc in Ukraine will play out.

News Archive

Verslag: SA studente atletiek (Afrikaans)
2005-04-28

Absa-kovsieatletiek
SA studente atletiekkampioenskap - 22 en 23 April 2005 Johannesburg Universiteit

 

Weereens baie goed!!! Dit is hoe ons die Kovsieatlete se vertonings op en af van die baan af kan beskryf. Die 22 medaljes vanjaar teenoor die 25 van 2004, die 14 van 2003 en die 10 van 2002 spreek boekdele, veral as ons in ag neem dat ons in die laaste week 4 van ons top atlete weens beserings verloor het (Antonie Rossouw, Nico Oosthuizen, Jaco Claasen en Renè Kalmer).

Ons het op 20 April om 09:00 vanaf Pelliespark per bus na Johannesburg vertrek en tuisgegaan in die Randburg Road Lodge hotel.

'n Totaal van 43 atlete – 18 vroue en 25 mans het die Kovsies verteenwoordig (spanlys aangeheg).

Die bestuurspan het bestaan uit Danie Cronjé bestuurder mans, Sarina Cronjé bestuurder vroue, Bertus Pretorius afrigter mans, Ans Botha afrigter vroue, Hendrik Cronjé (Video), Jan du Toit, Sidney van Biljon, DB Prinsloo sportbestuurder.

Die mediese span het bestaan uit Dr. Org Strauss en Daleen Lamprecht(bio).

Die volgende lede van die ABSA KOVSIESPAN het medaljes verwerf.

GOUD    
     
Jan vd Merwe  400   46,37
     
Johan Cronjé    1500 mans   3:50.20
     
Boy Soke  10000   30:23,40
     
Charlene Henning   Driesprong vroue  12.62m
     
Francois Potgieter      Tienkamp  6862 punte
     
Magdel Venter    Diskusgooi vroue     46.94m
     
Kovsiespan mans   4x400 Aflos  3:10,17
     
(Dirk Roets, Francois Lötter, Johan Cronjé, Jan van der Merwe)
     
     
SILWER    
     
Charlene Henning  Verspring vroue    6,16m
     
Magdel Venter  Gewigstoot vroue  13,21m
     
Sanè du Preez   Hamergooi vroue     44,71m
     
Boy Soke     5000m    14:36,60
     
Francois Potgieter  110 Hekkies mans    14,00sek
     
Christine Kalmer  1500m vroue    4:35,40
     
Cobus Marais    3000m hindernis   9:32,80
     
     
BRONS    
     
Gustav Kukkuk     110 Hekkies mans    14.00sek
     
Mariana Banting    Driesprong vroue  12.36m
     
Helen-Joan Lombaard   Sewekamp vroue    3354 punte
     
Clive Wessels   Paalspring   4,05m
     
Johan Cronjé  800m  1:52,01
     
Kovsiespan vroue   4x100 Aflos    47,56
     
(Denise Polson, Elmie Hugo, Carlene Henning, Minette Albertse)
     
Kovsiespan mans    4x100 Aflos   42,21
     
( Tiaan Pretorius, Gustav Kukkuk, Marno Meyer, Wiaan Kriel)
     
     
Kovsies wat ook onder die eerste 8 geëindig het sien as volg daaruit:
     
     
4de Plek    
     
Mariana Banting   Hoogspring vroue  1.70m
     
Stefan van Heerden   Driesprong  15,12m
     
Elmie Hugo   200m   24,12sek
     
Ronè Reynecke     400m  57,31sek
     
     
5de Plek    
     
Jackie Kriel    100 Hekkies    13,90sek
     
Jackie Kriel     400 Hekkies   65,40sek
     
Riana Rossouw    Gewigstoot    10,59m   
     
Kenny Jooste   Verspring   7,23m
     
Elmie Hugo    100m  11,86sek
     
Helen-Joan Lombard  Paalspring    3,25m
     
Ronè Reynecke     800m   2:17,58
     
Christine Kalmer   5000m      17:38,32
     
     
6de Plek    
     
Tiaan Pretorius  Verspring   7,21m
     
Francois Pretorius    800m     1:52,67
     
Riana Rossouw   Spiesgooi      38,12m
     
Kovsiespan vroue   4x400 Aflos  4:06,56
     
(Ronè Reynecke, Denise Polson, Lise du Toit, Elmie Hugo)
     
     
7de Plek    
     
Gerda Rust    Hamergooi   36,37m
     
Schalk Roestoff     1500m      3:55,80
     
Francois Lotter    400m       47,94
     
Pienaar j v Rensburg    10000m   32:12,21
     
Kovsie mans  ”A”  en  B span  4x400     3:15,44
     
     
8ste Plek    
     
Charles le Roux   Verspring   7,06m
     
Tiaan Pretorius  Driesprong  14,06m

In die spankompetisie het die Vroue 4de geëindig en die mans 4de. In die algehele kompetisie het die Kovsies ook die 4de plek behaal (aangeheg).

Die gees en gedrag van die toergroep was uitstekend en was die atlete goeie ambassadeurs vir die Kovsies.

Danie Cronjé     Sarina Cronjé
Spanbestuurder  Mans   Spanbestuurder Vroue

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