Latest News Archive

Please select Category, Year, and then Month to display items

Cry “Havoc!”, and let slip the dogs of war

11 March 2022 | Story Prof Frikkie Maré | Photo Supplied

Frikkie copy — Prof Frikkie Maré is from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Frikkie Maré, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.

In William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, Mark Antony utters the words: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war,” after learning about the murder of Julius Caesar. With these words he meant that chaos would ensue (havoc) to create the opportunity for violence (let slip the dogs of war).

The recent invasion (or military operation, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin) by Russian armed forces into Ukraine brought the famous words of Shakespeare to mind. Putin cried “Havoc!” and his troops created chaos in Ukraine. This is, however, not where it stopped because the dogs of war have been released into the rest of the world.

What is the impact on South Africa?

The day after the invasion we felt the bite of the dogs of war in South Africa. The rand suddenly weakened against the dollar, oil and gold prices increased sharply, and grain and oilseed prices on commodity markets increased

This was before the rest of the world started to implement sanctions against Russia, which could be described as a shock reaction due to uncertainty as to how the situation would unfold. In the days after the initial market reaction we saw the markets actually “cool down” a bit, with most sharp initial reactions starting to change back to former positions. This period was, however, short-lived when the world hit back by closing airspace and borders and refusing to import products from Russia or export to them. The sanctions were in solidarity with Ukraine as an attempt to bring the Russian economy to its knees and force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine.

Although the sanctions against Russia should certainly be successful over the long term, it does not change much in the short term and we will have to deal with the international effects of this conflict. The question then is, how will this affect South Africa?

Although there are no straightforward answers, as the impact will depend on what one’s role is in the economy. One thing for certain is that the total cost will outnumber the benefits. What affects everyone in South Africa, and the starting point of many secondary effects, is the increase in the price of crude oil. Russia is the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world and if the West is going to ban the import of Russian oil we will have an international shortage. Although the banning of Russian oil is the right thing to do to support Ukraine, it will have devastating effects on all countries in the world, with sharp increases in inflation.

The increase in the price of oil not only drives up the cost of transportation of people and products, but also manufacturing costs. Fertiliser prices are correlated with the oil price, and it will thus drive up the production cost of grain and oilseeds.

Speaking of grain and oilseed prices, the Black Sea region (which includes Russia and Ukraine), are major exporters of wheat and sunflower seed and oil. The prices of these commodities have soared in international and South Africa markets over the past few weeks. Although it might seem like good news for our farmers, the increase in prices are offset by high fertiliser prices and the local shortage of fertiliser. This may lead to fewer hectares of wheat being planted this year in the winter rainfall regions.

Nothing good is coming from this situation

In terms of agricultural commodities, both Russia and Ukraine are important importers of South African products, especially citrus, stone fruit and grapes. Alternative markets now need to be found for these products which will affect prices negatively.

Although one needs to write a thesis to explain all the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the dogs of war have been slipped, and it is clear from the few examples that nothing good is coming from this situation. In short, we will see higher fuel prices (maybe not R40/litre, but R25 to R30/litre is possible), higher food prices, higher inflation and a higher interest rate.

These factors affect all South-Africans, especially the poor and some in the middle class who will struggle in the short term. The time has come to cut down on luxuries and tighten belts to survive in the short term until there is certainty about how the havoc in Ukraine will play out.

News Archive

Ensure your place at the UFS

2010-10-27

The University of the Free State (UFS) appeals to all prospective South African students who want to come and study at the UFS in 2011 to submit their applications no later than Tuesday, 30 November 2010.

The UFS is aware of the fact that learners will not have received their final Grade 12 results by Tuesday, 30 November 2010; therefore provisional admission will be granted based on learners’ most recent Grade 12 results. Final admission will take place upon receipt of the final Grade 12 results, which will be available early in January 2011.

Prospective students can obtain application forms for admission at the following places:

The UFS’s web site at www.ufs.ac.za,
The Information Office (Unit for Prospective Students) at the Thakaneng Bridge on the UFS’s Main Campus in Bloemfontein,
You may also send an e-mail to info@ufs.ac.za or
Phone 051 401 3000 and the necessary forms will be posted to you.

Senior undergraduate students (that is all students who were registered up to and during 2010 at the UFS) as well as post-graduate students, must self-register electronically on-line from Monday, 1 November 2010 until Tuesday, 4 January 2011. This includes master’s and doctoral students.

In order to encourage senior students to register online, the UFS offers 20 laptops as incentives for the senior students who successfully register online from 1 November 2010. These laptops will be handed over to the winners after the registration process in 2011.

Registration of first-year students:

The Rector and Vice-Chancellor, Prof. Jonathan Jansen, will welcome first-year students on Friday, 14 January and Saturday, 15 January 2011, respectively, in the Callie Human Centre. The Faculties of Economic and Management Sciences, the Humanities and Education will be welcomed on 14 January 2011 and the students of the Faculties of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, Law and Theology shall be welcomed on 15 January 2011. The compulsory orientation programme for new first-years will also then commence.

From 17 to 21 January 2011 first-year students will receive academic advice at the Callie Human Centre, whereafter they will be referred for self-registration. These processes will take place according to the set timetable. This timetable is available in the Kovsie Guide that will be sent to learners as soon as we have received their applications, as well as on the web site of the UFS at www.ufs.ac.za/register2011.

First-year students’ fees must be paid prior to arrival on 14 and 15 January 2011.

Registration of senior students:

Senior students who experience problems with the electronic on-line self-registration process have the opportunity to resolve problems within a programme on campus from Wednesday, 5 January until Wednesday, 12 January 2011. This programme will be sent out to students and is also available at www.ufs.ac.za/register2011. The specific scheduled day for senior students to resolve problems is the last and only day to resolve the problem.

Senior students can also contact 051 401 9111 for more information in this regard.

Students may register for prescribed modules for 2011, even though the November 2010 examination results are not yet available. Changes resulting from examination results that are made available later can be done up to and including 28 January 2011.

In terms of applications for senior students, only students who have interrupted a calendar year of study need to re-apply for admission.

Registration of students at the UFS’s Qwaqwa Campus:

Senior and first-year students of the UFS’s Qwaqwa Campus register from Wednesday, 12 January until Friday, 28 January 2011 in the Nelson Mandela Hall on this campus.

Registration of students at the UFS South Campus:

First-year students from the UFS’s South Campus in the University Preparation Programme and the Extended Programme (only Natural and Agricultural Sciences) register from Monday, 24 January till Friday, 28 January 2011 in the Arena Hall on the South Campus.

Students who have successfully completed the University Preparation Programme register with the first-year students on the UFS Main Campus on Friday, 14 and Saturday, 15 January 2011 – according to faculties (cf. paragraph 6).

Lectures for all students shall commence on Monday, 24 January 2011.

MEDIA RELEASE
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication (actg)
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl@ufs.ac.za
26 October 2010

Back

Economic and Management Sciences

Education

Health Sciences

The Humanities

Law

Natural and Agricultural Sciences

Theology and Religion

Open Distance Learning

Business School

We use cookies to make interactions with our websites and services easy and meaningful. To better understand how they are used, read more about the UFS cookie policy. By continuing to use this site you are giving us your consent to do this.

Accept