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Cry “Havoc!”, and let slip the dogs of war

11 March 2022 | Story Prof Frikkie Maré | Photo Supplied

Frikkie copy — Prof Frikkie Maré is from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Frikkie Maré, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.

In William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, Mark Antony utters the words: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war,” after learning about the murder of Julius Caesar. With these words he meant that chaos would ensue (havoc) to create the opportunity for violence (let slip the dogs of war).

The recent invasion (or military operation, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin) by Russian armed forces into Ukraine brought the famous words of Shakespeare to mind. Putin cried “Havoc!” and his troops created chaos in Ukraine. This is, however, not where it stopped because the dogs of war have been released into the rest of the world.

What is the impact on South Africa?

The day after the invasion we felt the bite of the dogs of war in South Africa. The rand suddenly weakened against the dollar, oil and gold prices increased sharply, and grain and oilseed prices on commodity markets increased

This was before the rest of the world started to implement sanctions against Russia, which could be described as a shock reaction due to uncertainty as to how the situation would unfold. In the days after the initial market reaction we saw the markets actually “cool down” a bit, with most sharp initial reactions starting to change back to former positions. This period was, however, short-lived when the world hit back by closing airspace and borders and refusing to import products from Russia or export to them. The sanctions were in solidarity with Ukraine as an attempt to bring the Russian economy to its knees and force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine.

Although the sanctions against Russia should certainly be successful over the long term, it does not change much in the short term and we will have to deal with the international effects of this conflict. The question then is, how will this affect South Africa?

Although there are no straightforward answers, as the impact will depend on what one’s role is in the economy. One thing for certain is that the total cost will outnumber the benefits. What affects everyone in South Africa, and the starting point of many secondary effects, is the increase in the price of crude oil. Russia is the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world and if the West is going to ban the import of Russian oil we will have an international shortage. Although the banning of Russian oil is the right thing to do to support Ukraine, it will have devastating effects on all countries in the world, with sharp increases in inflation.

The increase in the price of oil not only drives up the cost of transportation of people and products, but also manufacturing costs. Fertiliser prices are correlated with the oil price, and it will thus drive up the production cost of grain and oilseeds.

Speaking of grain and oilseed prices, the Black Sea region (which includes Russia and Ukraine), are major exporters of wheat and sunflower seed and oil. The prices of these commodities have soared in international and South Africa markets over the past few weeks. Although it might seem like good news for our farmers, the increase in prices are offset by high fertiliser prices and the local shortage of fertiliser. This may lead to fewer hectares of wheat being planted this year in the winter rainfall regions.

Nothing good is coming from this situation

In terms of agricultural commodities, both Russia and Ukraine are important importers of South African products, especially citrus, stone fruit and grapes. Alternative markets now need to be found for these products which will affect prices negatively.

Although one needs to write a thesis to explain all the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the dogs of war have been slipped, and it is clear from the few examples that nothing good is coming from this situation. In short, we will see higher fuel prices (maybe not R40/litre, but R25 to R30/litre is possible), higher food prices, higher inflation and a higher interest rate.

These factors affect all South-Africans, especially the poor and some in the middle class who will struggle in the short term. The time has come to cut down on luxuries and tighten belts to survive in the short term until there is certainty about how the havoc in Ukraine will play out.

News Archive

Dr Oprah Winfrey praises our university

2011-08-24

Dr Oprah Winfrey after receiving her honorary doctorate degree.
Photo: Rian Horn

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Video clip

Transcription (pdf document)

“I came 8 000 miles to say, thank you, Vrystaat!” and “God bless South Africa,” were the words Dr Oprah Winfrey used yesterday to respectively open and close her address to an overflowing Callie Human Centre on our Bloemfontein Campus.

Our university awarded an honorary doctorate in Education to Dr Winfrey during a stately, yet warm and cheerful affair yesterday, which saw the 4 500 seater Callie Human Centre packed to the rafters with adoring fans, staff members and students.

The honorary doctorate is in recognition of her unparalleled dedication to improving the lives and futures of so many by improving education and ensuring that it is accessible to all. Through her award-winning show, The Oprah Winfrey Show (which concluded this year after 25 years of entertainment and service), and the various charity organisations she has established, Dr Winfrey has harnessed the power of her iconic stature in the struggle to eradicate poverty and make education accessible to all.

The ceremony’s audience was entertained by South African music legend, Ms Sibongile Khumalo, the Bloemfontein Children’s Choir, Bartimea School for the Deaf and Blind’s Sign Language Choir, and several other musical performers as well as dancers.

Dr Winfrey could not hold back her tears when Mr John Samuel, interim Director of our International Institute for Studies in Race, Reconciliation and Social Justice, described her as an “honorary daughter of South Africa”. She proved just how much the country means to her when she joined in the singing of the South African national anthem, Nkosi Sikeleli, despite struggling with the words in some parts.

According to Dr Winfrey, her interest in our university began after she had read an article by Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector, in which he emphasised the need for South Africans to stop accepting mediocrity, if ever the country is to develop to its full potential.

She asked Mr Samuel to convey her message of support to Prof. Jansen and the wheels, which led to today’s great event, were set in motion.

She also expressed her admiration of the transformation process at our university and our commitment to “reconciliation, peace and harmony”. “What has happened at the University of the Free State is nothing short of a miracle and this is truly what the New South Africa is about,” she said to loud cheers from the audience.

To emphasise her point, she called the five workers from the Reitz video to the stage and used their forgiveness and acceptance of the students responsible for the video as an example of the healing achieved at the UFS.

“Having seen this forgiveness has allowed me to expand my vision of what we can be.” She also delivered a message of encouragement and reminded students that anyone, despite their circumstances and background, could become successful and grow to overcome their obstacles, as she had done.

“Anyone can be successful if they put their mind to it, work hard and are diligent,” she said. “We must all strive for more than success, though, and fulfil the highest expression of ourselves as humans by realising who you are and what you are meant to be.”

Following her address, Dr Winfrey answered several questions from our students, giving them advice on, among other things, how to choose a career that is right for them, and good characteristics to look for in leaders and peers.

She also mentioned that several learners from the Oprah Winfrey Leadership Academy, which has its very first group of Grade 12 learners this year, would be visiting our university next month in order to help them select a university to attend next year.

Media Release
25 June 2011
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za

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