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11 March 2022 | Story Prof Frikkie Maré | Photo Supplied
Prof Frikkie Maré is from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Frikkie Maré, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.
In William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, Mark Antony utters the words: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war,” after learning about the murder of Julius Caesar. With these words he meant that chaos would ensue (havoc) to create the opportunity for violence (let slip the dogs of war).

The recent invasion (or military operation, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin) by Russian armed forces into Ukraine brought the famous words of Shakespeare to mind. Putin cried “Havoc!” and his troops created chaos in Ukraine. This is, however, not where it stopped because the dogs of war have been released into the rest of the world.

What is the impact on South Africa?

The day after the invasion we felt the bite of the dogs of war in South Africa. The rand suddenly weakened against the dollar, oil and gold prices increased sharply, and grain and oilseed prices on commodity markets increased 

This was before the rest of the world started to implement sanctions against Russia, which could be described as a shock reaction due to uncertainty as to how the situation would unfold. In the days after the initial market reaction we saw the markets actually “cool down” a bit, with most sharp initial reactions starting to change back to former positions. This period was, however, short-lived when the world hit back by closing airspace and borders and refusing to import products from Russia or export to them. The sanctions were in solidarity with Ukraine as an attempt to bring the Russian economy to its knees and force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine.

Although the sanctions against Russia should certainly be successful over the long term, it does not change much in the short term and we will have to deal with the international effects of this conflict. The question then is, how will this affect South Africa?

Although there are no straightforward answers, as the impact will depend on what one’s role is in the economy. One thing for certain is that the total cost will outnumber the benefits. What affects everyone in South Africa, and the starting point of many secondary effects, is the increase in the price of crude oil. Russia is the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world and if the West is going to ban the import of Russian oil we will have an international shortage. Although the banning of Russian oil is the right thing to do to support Ukraine, it will have devastating effects on all countries in the world, with sharp increases in inflation.  

The increase in the price of oil not only drives up the cost of transportation of people and products, but also manufacturing costs. Fertiliser prices are correlated with the oil price, and it will thus drive up the production cost of grain and oilseeds.

Speaking of grain and oilseed prices, the Black Sea region (which includes Russia and Ukraine), are major exporters of wheat and sunflower seed and oil. The prices of these commodities have soared in international and South Africa markets over the past few weeks. Although it might seem like good news for our farmers, the increase in prices are offset by high fertiliser prices and the local shortage of fertiliser. This may lead to fewer hectares of wheat being planted this year in the winter rainfall regions.  

Nothing good is coming from this situation

In terms of agricultural commodities, both Russia and Ukraine are important importers of South African products, especially citrus, stone fruit and grapes.  Alternative markets now need to be found for these products which will affect prices negatively.

Although one needs to write a thesis to explain all the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the dogs of war have been slipped, and it is clear from the few examples that nothing good is coming from this situation. In short, we will see higher fuel prices (maybe not R40/litre, but R25 to R30/litre is possible), higher food prices, higher inflation and a higher interest rate.  

These factors affect all South-Africans, especially the poor and some in the middle class who will struggle in the short term. The time has come to cut down on luxuries and tighten belts to survive in the short term until there is certainty about how the havoc in Ukraine will play out.

News Archive

ANC Centenary Dialogue reflects on past leadership
2011-10-12

 

Making their mark at the ANC Centenary Dialogue were, from left to right: Prof. Kwandiwe Kondlo, Senior Professor: Centre for Africa Studies (UFS); Dr Adekeye Adebajo, Director: Centre for Conflict Resolution (Cape Town); and Prof.  E C Ejiogu, Senior Researcher: Centre for Africa Studies (UFS). 

The Centre for Africa Studies at our university recently hosted its ANC Centenary Dialogue at the Bloemfontein Campus. Keynote speaker, Dr Adekeye Adebajo, delivered a paper titled Nelson Mandela, Thabo Mbeki, and the ANC’s Footprint in Africa. The lecture focused on two of South Africa’s democratically-elected presidents.

Mr Nelson Mandela was South Africa’s first democratically-elected president. This Nobel Peace Laureate played a prophetic leadership role in Africa in 1993. He was inspired by Mr Mahatma Gandhi’s tactics of ‘passive resistance’, which played a role in the ANC’s Defiance Campaign.
 
Mr Mandela’s visit to other African countries gave him insights into continental diplomacy and the tactics of other liberation movements. “The ANC used Madiba to embody the face of the struggle. He emerged from prison without any bitterness towards his enemies. He tirelessly promoted national reconciliation,” said Dr Adebajo.
 
Unlike other post-independence ‘Founding Fathers’, Mr Mandela bowed out gracefully at the end of his first presidential term in 1999, setting a standard for future African leaders aspiring to greatness. “Mr Mandela’s lasting legacies are his efforts at promoting national and international peacemaking,” elaborated Dr Adebajo.
 
Mr Thabo Mbeki challenged Africans to discover a sense of their own self-confidence after centuries of slavery and colonialism. Under his foreign policy, South Africa established solid credentials to become Africa’s leading power. He sought multilateral solutions to resolve regional conflicts. Mr Mbeki also sent peacekeepers abroad and increased South Africa’s credibility as a major geostrategic player in Africa.
 
Many question whether Mr Mbeki’s heirs, President Jacob Zuma and beyond, will maintain the same level of commitment to the continent that he demonstrated. Mr Mbeki has bequeathed this foreign policy legacy to his successors. “These very different ANC leaders have left a heavy African footprint on the sands of time,” concluded Dr Adebajo.

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