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11 March 2022 | Story Prof Frikkie Maré | Photo Supplied
Prof Frikkie Maré is from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Frikkie Maré, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.
In William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, Mark Antony utters the words: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war,” after learning about the murder of Julius Caesar. With these words he meant that chaos would ensue (havoc) to create the opportunity for violence (let slip the dogs of war).

The recent invasion (or military operation, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin) by Russian armed forces into Ukraine brought the famous words of Shakespeare to mind. Putin cried “Havoc!” and his troops created chaos in Ukraine. This is, however, not where it stopped because the dogs of war have been released into the rest of the world.

What is the impact on South Africa?

The day after the invasion we felt the bite of the dogs of war in South Africa. The rand suddenly weakened against the dollar, oil and gold prices increased sharply, and grain and oilseed prices on commodity markets increased 

This was before the rest of the world started to implement sanctions against Russia, which could be described as a shock reaction due to uncertainty as to how the situation would unfold. In the days after the initial market reaction we saw the markets actually “cool down” a bit, with most sharp initial reactions starting to change back to former positions. This period was, however, short-lived when the world hit back by closing airspace and borders and refusing to import products from Russia or export to them. The sanctions were in solidarity with Ukraine as an attempt to bring the Russian economy to its knees and force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine.

Although the sanctions against Russia should certainly be successful over the long term, it does not change much in the short term and we will have to deal with the international effects of this conflict. The question then is, how will this affect South Africa?

Although there are no straightforward answers, as the impact will depend on what one’s role is in the economy. One thing for certain is that the total cost will outnumber the benefits. What affects everyone in South Africa, and the starting point of many secondary effects, is the increase in the price of crude oil. Russia is the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world and if the West is going to ban the import of Russian oil we will have an international shortage. Although the banning of Russian oil is the right thing to do to support Ukraine, it will have devastating effects on all countries in the world, with sharp increases in inflation.  

The increase in the price of oil not only drives up the cost of transportation of people and products, but also manufacturing costs. Fertiliser prices are correlated with the oil price, and it will thus drive up the production cost of grain and oilseeds.

Speaking of grain and oilseed prices, the Black Sea region (which includes Russia and Ukraine), are major exporters of wheat and sunflower seed and oil. The prices of these commodities have soared in international and South Africa markets over the past few weeks. Although it might seem like good news for our farmers, the increase in prices are offset by high fertiliser prices and the local shortage of fertiliser. This may lead to fewer hectares of wheat being planted this year in the winter rainfall regions.  

Nothing good is coming from this situation

In terms of agricultural commodities, both Russia and Ukraine are important importers of South African products, especially citrus, stone fruit and grapes.  Alternative markets now need to be found for these products which will affect prices negatively.

Although one needs to write a thesis to explain all the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the dogs of war have been slipped, and it is clear from the few examples that nothing good is coming from this situation. In short, we will see higher fuel prices (maybe not R40/litre, but R25 to R30/litre is possible), higher food prices, higher inflation and a higher interest rate.  

These factors affect all South-Africans, especially the poor and some in the middle class who will struggle in the short term. The time has come to cut down on luxuries and tighten belts to survive in the short term until there is certainty about how the havoc in Ukraine will play out.

News Archive

School of Open Learning opens access to education
2011-12-08

 

Lanterns filled the night sky as UFS staff and guests celebrate the launch of the School of Open Learning at the university’s South Campus.
Photo: Johan Pretorius

A school which intends to expand the boundaries of the University of the Free State (UFS), providing good quality higher education that is based on open learning principles. That is what the School of Open Learning at the UFS’ South Campus is all about. The School was officially launched at the Campus on 28 November 2011. 

Prof. Daniella Coetzee, Dean of the School, told guests at the launch that the School will provide opportunities other than traditional learning in higher education and open up access to those who have not had the opportunity to study at a higher education institution. This includes taking programmes and courses to students at off-campus sites. The School of Open Learning currently has 46 off-campus sites across most of the provinces, i.e. Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, North West, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, Limpopo and the Free State. The off-campus sites are serviced by a total of 350 university lecturers and well-trained facilitators and tutors.
 
At the moment most of the programmes and courses managed by the School of Open Learning have their academic home in the Faculty of Education, providing upgrading of the qualifications of teachers as well as in-service training. In 2011 the School of Open Learning enrolled more than 4000 students for the Education courses. To date a total of 28 000 teachers have been enrolled at the School to upgrade their teaching qualifications.
 
Collaboration with the Faculty of Law in the presentation of a BIuris degree on off-campus sites is also on the calendar for 2012. This degree will be offered through contact and E-learning at three off-campus sites: Johannesburg, Durban and Cape Town.
 
The University Preparation Programme (UPP) will also form part of the School of Open Learning. This programme has proven to be extremely successful in providing students access to undergraduate degrees at the UFS. The curriculum for this bridging year offers courses from the Faculties of Economic and Management Sciences, Human and Social Sciences as well as Natural and Agricultural Sciences. Since 1993 more than 4500 students have enrolled for degree purposes after successfully completing the UPP: 1641 degrees have been awarded to students who began their studies in the programme (including 168 honours degrees; 25 master’s and 8 M.B.Ch.B. degrees). The existing foundation course in the UPP is being adapted to also serve NQF level 4 in further education. As far back as 1998, the Sunday Times (Best in Education, 1998:1) named this programme as “one of the most innovative education programmes” in a special supplement on higher education in South Africa.
 
Also speaking at the event, Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector, said the South Campus is to become intellectually alive with possibilities. He said the university will make sure there are seminars, conferences and classes where students can mingle across the university’s three campuses.

 

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