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Cry “Havoc!”, and let slip the dogs of war

11 March 2022 | Story Prof Frikkie Maré | Photo Supplied

Frikkie copy — Prof Frikkie Maré is from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Frikkie Maré, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.

In William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, Mark Antony utters the words: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war,” after learning about the murder of Julius Caesar. With these words he meant that chaos would ensue (havoc) to create the opportunity for violence (let slip the dogs of war).

The recent invasion (or military operation, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin) by Russian armed forces into Ukraine brought the famous words of Shakespeare to mind. Putin cried “Havoc!” and his troops created chaos in Ukraine. This is, however, not where it stopped because the dogs of war have been released into the rest of the world.

What is the impact on South Africa?

The day after the invasion we felt the bite of the dogs of war in South Africa. The rand suddenly weakened against the dollar, oil and gold prices increased sharply, and grain and oilseed prices on commodity markets increased

This was before the rest of the world started to implement sanctions against Russia, which could be described as a shock reaction due to uncertainty as to how the situation would unfold. In the days after the initial market reaction we saw the markets actually “cool down” a bit, with most sharp initial reactions starting to change back to former positions. This period was, however, short-lived when the world hit back by closing airspace and borders and refusing to import products from Russia or export to them. The sanctions were in solidarity with Ukraine as an attempt to bring the Russian economy to its knees and force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine.

Although the sanctions against Russia should certainly be successful over the long term, it does not change much in the short term and we will have to deal with the international effects of this conflict. The question then is, how will this affect South Africa?

Although there are no straightforward answers, as the impact will depend on what one’s role is in the economy. One thing for certain is that the total cost will outnumber the benefits. What affects everyone in South Africa, and the starting point of many secondary effects, is the increase in the price of crude oil. Russia is the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world and if the West is going to ban the import of Russian oil we will have an international shortage. Although the banning of Russian oil is the right thing to do to support Ukraine, it will have devastating effects on all countries in the world, with sharp increases in inflation.

The increase in the price of oil not only drives up the cost of transportation of people and products, but also manufacturing costs. Fertiliser prices are correlated with the oil price, and it will thus drive up the production cost of grain and oilseeds.

Speaking of grain and oilseed prices, the Black Sea region (which includes Russia and Ukraine), are major exporters of wheat and sunflower seed and oil. The prices of these commodities have soared in international and South Africa markets over the past few weeks. Although it might seem like good news for our farmers, the increase in prices are offset by high fertiliser prices and the local shortage of fertiliser. This may lead to fewer hectares of wheat being planted this year in the winter rainfall regions.

Nothing good is coming from this situation

In terms of agricultural commodities, both Russia and Ukraine are important importers of South African products, especially citrus, stone fruit and grapes. Alternative markets now need to be found for these products which will affect prices negatively.

Although one needs to write a thesis to explain all the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the dogs of war have been slipped, and it is clear from the few examples that nothing good is coming from this situation. In short, we will see higher fuel prices (maybe not R40/litre, but R25 to R30/litre is possible), higher food prices, higher inflation and a higher interest rate.

These factors affect all South-Africans, especially the poor and some in the middle class who will struggle in the short term. The time has come to cut down on luxuries and tighten belts to survive in the short term until there is certainty about how the havoc in Ukraine will play out.

News Archive

UFS involved in project to light up the townships

2006-06-06

The parties involved with the project are from the left: Prof Hendrik Swart (Departmental Chairperson of the UFS Department of Physics), Dr Thembela Hillie (CSIR), Prof Neerich Revaprasadu (Department of Chemistry at the University of Zululand) and Dr Wynand Steyn (CSIR).

UFS involved in project that could light up the townships

The University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Physics is involved with a project that could make life easier in the townships through the use of artificial light.

“The project is based on the use of sunlight to activate nano material in for example cement and paint during the day. At night the cement or paint can then radiate light,” said Prof Hendrik Swart, Departmental Chairperson of the UFS Department of Physics.

According to Prof Swart an amount of R3,9 million has been made available by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) for the further development of the project.

Prof Swart visited the University of Florida in America in 1995 for a year where he researched luminescent phosphor material that is suitable for flat panel television screens. The red, green and blue spots on the television screens originate from these kinds of phosphor materials. “At that stage plasma television screens were only a dream. Today it is sold everywhere,” said Prof Swart.

“Upon my return I started a research group at the UFS which investigated the degrading of phosphor material. We also started to concentrate on the effectiveness of nano phosphors. In the mean time our cooperation with the Americans was strengthened with follow-up visits to America of my colleagues, Prof Koos Terblans and Mr Martin Ntwaeaborwa,” said Prof Swart.

“Nano phosphors are basically luminescent powders that consist of particles that are 1 millionth of a millimetre. These particles can provide light as soon as they are illuminated with, for instance, sunlight. The amount of time these particles can provide light, is determined by the impurities in the material,” said Prof Swart.

According to Prof Swart nano particles are developed and linked to infrastructure materials in order for these materials to be excited during the day by sunlight and then it emits light during night time.

“The nano material is of such a nature that it can be mixed with materials, such as paint or cement. The yellow lines of roads can for example emit light in a natural way during night time,” said Prof Swart.

About a year ago Prof Swart and Dr Thembela Hillie, a former Ph D-student of the UFS Department of Physics, had discussions with Prof Neerich Revaprasadu from the University of Zululand and the CSIR about the possibility of mixing these nano phosphor particles with other materials that can be used as light sources in the building of roads and houses.

“Prof Revaprasadu is also actively involved in the research of nano materials. Our efforts resulted in the CSIR approving the further extension of the project,” said Prof Swart.

“The UFS and the University of Zululand are currently busy investigating ways to extend the light emitting time,” said Prof Swart.

“There are eight M Sc and Ph D-students from the UFS and about five students from the University of Zululand working on this research project. The Department of Physics at the Qwaqwa Campus of the UFS, with Francis Dejene as subject head, is also involved with the project,” said Prof Swart.

According to Prof Swart the further applications of nano materials are unlimited. “Children whose parents cannot afford electricity can for instance leave any object such as a lamp, that is covered with these phosphor particles, in the sun during the day and use it at night as a light for study purposes,” said Prof Swart.

According to Prof Swart the further extension of the project will take about two years. “During this time we want to determine how the effectiveness of the phosphors can be increased. Discussions with the government and other role players for the possible implementation of the project are also part of our planning,” said Prof Swart.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
6 June 2006

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