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Cry “Havoc!”, and let slip the dogs of war

11 March 2022 | Story Prof Frikkie Maré | Photo Supplied

Frikkie copy — Prof Frikkie Maré is from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Frikkie Maré, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.

In William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, Mark Antony utters the words: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war,” after learning about the murder of Julius Caesar. With these words he meant that chaos would ensue (havoc) to create the opportunity for violence (let slip the dogs of war).

The recent invasion (or military operation, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin) by Russian armed forces into Ukraine brought the famous words of Shakespeare to mind. Putin cried “Havoc!” and his troops created chaos in Ukraine. This is, however, not where it stopped because the dogs of war have been released into the rest of the world.

What is the impact on South Africa?

The day after the invasion we felt the bite of the dogs of war in South Africa. The rand suddenly weakened against the dollar, oil and gold prices increased sharply, and grain and oilseed prices on commodity markets increased

This was before the rest of the world started to implement sanctions against Russia, which could be described as a shock reaction due to uncertainty as to how the situation would unfold. In the days after the initial market reaction we saw the markets actually “cool down” a bit, with most sharp initial reactions starting to change back to former positions. This period was, however, short-lived when the world hit back by closing airspace and borders and refusing to import products from Russia or export to them. The sanctions were in solidarity with Ukraine as an attempt to bring the Russian economy to its knees and force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine.

Although the sanctions against Russia should certainly be successful over the long term, it does not change much in the short term and we will have to deal with the international effects of this conflict. The question then is, how will this affect South Africa?

Although there are no straightforward answers, as the impact will depend on what one’s role is in the economy. One thing for certain is that the total cost will outnumber the benefits. What affects everyone in South Africa, and the starting point of many secondary effects, is the increase in the price of crude oil. Russia is the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world and if the West is going to ban the import of Russian oil we will have an international shortage. Although the banning of Russian oil is the right thing to do to support Ukraine, it will have devastating effects on all countries in the world, with sharp increases in inflation.

The increase in the price of oil not only drives up the cost of transportation of people and products, but also manufacturing costs. Fertiliser prices are correlated with the oil price, and it will thus drive up the production cost of grain and oilseeds.

Speaking of grain and oilseed prices, the Black Sea region (which includes Russia and Ukraine), are major exporters of wheat and sunflower seed and oil. The prices of these commodities have soared in international and South Africa markets over the past few weeks. Although it might seem like good news for our farmers, the increase in prices are offset by high fertiliser prices and the local shortage of fertiliser. This may lead to fewer hectares of wheat being planted this year in the winter rainfall regions.

Nothing good is coming from this situation

In terms of agricultural commodities, both Russia and Ukraine are important importers of South African products, especially citrus, stone fruit and grapes. Alternative markets now need to be found for these products which will affect prices negatively.

Although one needs to write a thesis to explain all the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the dogs of war have been slipped, and it is clear from the few examples that nothing good is coming from this situation. In short, we will see higher fuel prices (maybe not R40/litre, but R25 to R30/litre is possible), higher food prices, higher inflation and a higher interest rate.

These factors affect all South-Africans, especially the poor and some in the middle class who will struggle in the short term. The time has come to cut down on luxuries and tighten belts to survive in the short term until there is certainty about how the havoc in Ukraine will play out.

News Archive

UFS Communication and Brand Management receives two prestigious international awards

2015-07-07

Lelanie de Wet, Lacea Loader and Leonie Bolleurs

The Department of Communication and Brand Management at the University of the Free State (UFS) received two of the six Gold Quill Awards – that were awarded to South African companies and institutions - at the International Association of Business Communicator’s (IABC) Excellence Gala ceremony in San Francisco, US on 15 June 2015.

The awards ceremony formed part of the 2015 IABC World Conference, which took place from 14-17 June 2015. The department received a Gold Quill Excellence Award for its social media campaign, UFS #FaceOfFacebook and a Gold Quill Merit Award for the B Safe Take Action campaign.

From the 15 countries that entered, a total of 120 Gold Quill Excellence awards and 189 Gold Quill Merit awards were awarded. Other South African award winners included Barclays Africa Group Limited, Mediclinic and the Cape Peninsula University of Technology (CPUT).

This is the second year in a row that the UFS has been recognised by the IABC for its communication projects. In 2014, the department was awarded the Jake Wittmer Research Award for a Stakeholder Perception Audit conducted in February 2014. The audit was considered – by the IABC - as one of the best breakthrough strategies used by a university to measure the perceptions of its stakeholders.This made the UFS the first tertiary institution in Africa to receive the research award. The stakeholder perception audit also received an Africa Gold Quill in 2014.

"Being recognised by a global association such as the IABC for the second time, is a great honour and I am very proud of what my colleagues have achieved by entering the two campaigns. Winning the awards is a true indication of what can be done when a team of expert communicators is committed towards engaging their target audiences with campaigns that speak of quality and innovation. The fact that the UFS is one of only two tertiary education institutions in the country to receive these prestigious awards, makes it even more special," said Lacea Loader, Director: Communication and Brand Management at the UFS.

IABC World and Africa conferences 2015

The IABC is a global membership association with a network of 12 000 members in more than 80 countries, representing many of the Global Fortune 500 companies. It serves professionals in the field of business communication, bringing together the profession’s collective disciplines.

With the theme: Changing landscape: Informing the future, the 2015 world conference was attended by over 1 200 delegates from across the world. Delegates were offered an opportunity for learning, discovering, and connecting. Loader also made a presentation entitled ‘Award-winning measurement endorses sound reputation management strategy’ at the world conference.

The department will also be receiving two Africa Gold Quill Awards from the Africa chapter of the IABC for the same campaigns on 30 July 2015 in Johannesburg.

UFS #FaceOfFacebook Campaign

The university received a Gold Quill Excellence Award for its social media campaign, UFS #FaceOfFacebook. This initiative originated in the university’s commitment to its Human Project, which sets the standard for good behaviour and care.

Lelanie de Wet, Manager: Social Media and Website Content and project leader of UFS #FaceOfFacebook, said the project was born from the need to communicate with students. Thus a virtual friend, #FaceOfFacebook, was created. “Yearly auditions are being held to choose the new face representing the UFS on Facebook. Short video clips of the #FaceOfFacebook – whether it is attending events or communicating important messages - are posted on the UFS Facebook page. The successful candidate holds the title #FaceOfFacebook for 12 months.

“When I look at a campaign such as #FaceOfFacebook, from the time it took its first tentative steps in 2013, and see how it inspired staff and students alike, my heart swells with pride. Often you can see the impact you have made only in retrospect. The ripples you send into the world will inevitably create waves,” she said.

B Safe Take Action Campaign

The B Safe Take Action campaign of the university received a Gold Quill Merit award from the IABC.

The campaign was activated in September 2013. “It targeted on- and off-campus students and staff, aiming to create social ownership of personal safety, and to raise awareness of the safety measures put in place by the university,” said Leonie Bolleurs, Manager: Internal Communication and project manager of the campaign.

The campaign looked at a number of safety aspects, focusing not only on crime but also on being safe from road accidents and stress/burnout.

It is the second time this year that the BSafe campaign has been recognised for its innovative strategy. Earlier this year it received a PRISM Award (Gold) from the Public Relations Institute of Southern Africa (PRISA). The annual PRISM Awards are about recognising and celebrating great public relations campaigns.

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