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Cry “Havoc!”, and let slip the dogs of war

11 March 2022 | Story Prof Frikkie Maré | Photo Supplied

Frikkie copy — Prof Frikkie Maré is from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Frikkie Maré, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.

In William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, Mark Antony utters the words: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war,” after learning about the murder of Julius Caesar. With these words he meant that chaos would ensue (havoc) to create the opportunity for violence (let slip the dogs of war).

The recent invasion (or military operation, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin) by Russian armed forces into Ukraine brought the famous words of Shakespeare to mind. Putin cried “Havoc!” and his troops created chaos in Ukraine. This is, however, not where it stopped because the dogs of war have been released into the rest of the world.

What is the impact on South Africa?

The day after the invasion we felt the bite of the dogs of war in South Africa. The rand suddenly weakened against the dollar, oil and gold prices increased sharply, and grain and oilseed prices on commodity markets increased

This was before the rest of the world started to implement sanctions against Russia, which could be described as a shock reaction due to uncertainty as to how the situation would unfold. In the days after the initial market reaction we saw the markets actually “cool down” a bit, with most sharp initial reactions starting to change back to former positions. This period was, however, short-lived when the world hit back by closing airspace and borders and refusing to import products from Russia or export to them. The sanctions were in solidarity with Ukraine as an attempt to bring the Russian economy to its knees and force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine.

Although the sanctions against Russia should certainly be successful over the long term, it does not change much in the short term and we will have to deal with the international effects of this conflict. The question then is, how will this affect South Africa?

Although there are no straightforward answers, as the impact will depend on what one’s role is in the economy. One thing for certain is that the total cost will outnumber the benefits. What affects everyone in South Africa, and the starting point of many secondary effects, is the increase in the price of crude oil. Russia is the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world and if the West is going to ban the import of Russian oil we will have an international shortage. Although the banning of Russian oil is the right thing to do to support Ukraine, it will have devastating effects on all countries in the world, with sharp increases in inflation.

The increase in the price of oil not only drives up the cost of transportation of people and products, but also manufacturing costs. Fertiliser prices are correlated with the oil price, and it will thus drive up the production cost of grain and oilseeds.

Speaking of grain and oilseed prices, the Black Sea region (which includes Russia and Ukraine), are major exporters of wheat and sunflower seed and oil. The prices of these commodities have soared in international and South Africa markets over the past few weeks. Although it might seem like good news for our farmers, the increase in prices are offset by high fertiliser prices and the local shortage of fertiliser. This may lead to fewer hectares of wheat being planted this year in the winter rainfall regions.

Nothing good is coming from this situation

In terms of agricultural commodities, both Russia and Ukraine are important importers of South African products, especially citrus, stone fruit and grapes. Alternative markets now need to be found for these products which will affect prices negatively.

Although one needs to write a thesis to explain all the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the dogs of war have been slipped, and it is clear from the few examples that nothing good is coming from this situation. In short, we will see higher fuel prices (maybe not R40/litre, but R25 to R30/litre is possible), higher food prices, higher inflation and a higher interest rate.

These factors affect all South-Africans, especially the poor and some in the middle class who will struggle in the short term. The time has come to cut down on luxuries and tighten belts to survive in the short term until there is certainty about how the havoc in Ukraine will play out.

News Archive

“Breakthroughs depend on people believing in their own ideas”

2015-07-23

TED is a renowned international non-profit organisation dedicated to disseminating “ideas worth spreading” in the form compelling talks lasting up to 18 minutes.

Lerothodi Molete’s vision is to witness the youth of Bloemfontein emerge at the forefront of technological, scientific, and entrepreneurial innovations in both South Africa and the global arena.

Molete and Bonginkosi Leeuw are the organisers of TEDxUFS. Their duty is centered on inspiring people to believe in, and express, their ideas. These University of the Free State students have taken it upon themselves to inspire the youth to “push the boundaries of society.”

The second TEDxUFS event to be hosted by the university presents a unique opportunity for students, staff members, and the general public to mingle with influential speakers from across various disciplines.

Details of the event:

Date: Saturday 1 August 2015

Time: 08:00- 18:00

Venue: Albert Wessels Auditorium, Bloemfontein Campus

The keynote speakers include: Mmusi Maimane (Federal Leader: Democratic Alliance), Gareth Cliff (Radio personality: Cliff Central), Pieter Geldenhuys (Futurist), Brian Kally (Director: Arrow Logistics), Jonathan Jansen (Vice-Chancellor and Rector: UFS), Ricardo Peach (Director: Vrystaat Arts Festival, Pamela Nomvete (Former actor and writer), Gil Oved (Founder: Creative Counsel), Pepe Marais (CEO: Joe Public), Angelo Mockie (Senior Officer: Student Affairs and musician), Philippa Tumubweinee (Senior Lecturer in Architecture: UFS), and Melody Mentz (Psychology Senior Professor: UFS).

The reason behind the #AskWhy theme

"Why is a small word but it’s a quick, broad, sharp and abrupt one,” explains Leeuw. “It is the chosen word of the non-conformist, the defiant, and the visionary. It is a confrontational word. It challenges what is thought to be impossible.”

The ability to interrogate reality is what society and economies are built on. The absence of the fear to question encourages the capacity to progress.

Motivating young people to follow their dreams is the reason why the TEDxUFS team is persistent in their endeavours. Molete believes that, in order to change anything, people need to ask why.

Background of the innovation powerhouse called TED(x)

TED is a renowned international non-profit organisation dedicated to disseminating “ideas worth spreading” in the form compelling talks lasting up to 18 minutes.

In 1984, it was introduced as a conference exploring Technology, Entertainment, and Design. Three decades later, TED covers a wide variety of topics of global significance, reflecting the contemporary era in more than 100 languages.

TEDx events are under the TED umbrella. These events are organised independently, and create a platform for deliberating on local matters. The programme assists communities, organisations, and individuals to stimulate critical dialogue.

On 25 July 2014, the UFS hosted its inaugural TEDxUFS conference at the Odeion theatre on the Bloemfontein Campus, where eleven speakers addressed an audience of 150 people on interdisciplinary topics ranging from economics to entrepreneurship, technology, art, design, and theology.

This year, 200 seats will be available for innovative revolutionary individuals in search of inspiration.

Tickets are available at 0619284253 / 079 381 4126. Prices: R80 (Student/scholars) and R350 (Public/staff)

LINKS:

Lerothodi Molete- http://whoswho.co.za/lerothodi-molete-742022

Bonginkosi Leeuw- https://www.ted.com/tedx/events/10499

TEDxUFS- http://kovsielife.ufs.ac.za/templates/archive.aspx?news=276

Mmusi Maimane- http://whoswho.co.za/mmusi-maimane-44612

Garett Cliff- http://www.garethcliff.com/

Pieter Geldenhuys- http://pietergeldenhuys.com/

Brian Kally- https://za.linkedin.com/pub/brian-kally/4b/888/959

Jonathan Jansen- http://www.ufs.ac.za/adhoc-pages/rectorate/prof-(jd)-jonathan-jansen

Ricardo Peach- http://ricardopeach.com/

Pamela Nomvete- http://whoswho.co.za/pamela-nomvete-4789

Gil Ovid- https://za.linkedin.com/pub/gil-oved/3/910/892

Pepe Marais- http://joepublic.co.za/people

Angelo Mockie- https://za.linkedin.com/pub/angelo-mockie/27/56/302

PhilippaTumubweinee- http://natagri.ufs.ac.za/templates/staffmember.aspx?DCode=101&pid=zyNJm7KI%2b1k%3d

Melody Mentz- https://za.linkedin.com/in/melodymentz

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