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Cry “Havoc!”, and let slip the dogs of war

11 March 2022 | Story Prof Frikkie Maré | Photo Supplied

Frikkie copy — Prof Frikkie Maré is from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Frikkie Maré, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.

In William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, Mark Antony utters the words: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war,” after learning about the murder of Julius Caesar. With these words he meant that chaos would ensue (havoc) to create the opportunity for violence (let slip the dogs of war).

The recent invasion (or military operation, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin) by Russian armed forces into Ukraine brought the famous words of Shakespeare to mind. Putin cried “Havoc!” and his troops created chaos in Ukraine. This is, however, not where it stopped because the dogs of war have been released into the rest of the world.

What is the impact on South Africa?

The day after the invasion we felt the bite of the dogs of war in South Africa. The rand suddenly weakened against the dollar, oil and gold prices increased sharply, and grain and oilseed prices on commodity markets increased

This was before the rest of the world started to implement sanctions against Russia, which could be described as a shock reaction due to uncertainty as to how the situation would unfold. In the days after the initial market reaction we saw the markets actually “cool down” a bit, with most sharp initial reactions starting to change back to former positions. This period was, however, short-lived when the world hit back by closing airspace and borders and refusing to import products from Russia or export to them. The sanctions were in solidarity with Ukraine as an attempt to bring the Russian economy to its knees and force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine.

Although the sanctions against Russia should certainly be successful over the long term, it does not change much in the short term and we will have to deal with the international effects of this conflict. The question then is, how will this affect South Africa?

Although there are no straightforward answers, as the impact will depend on what one’s role is in the economy. One thing for certain is that the total cost will outnumber the benefits. What affects everyone in South Africa, and the starting point of many secondary effects, is the increase in the price of crude oil. Russia is the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world and if the West is going to ban the import of Russian oil we will have an international shortage. Although the banning of Russian oil is the right thing to do to support Ukraine, it will have devastating effects on all countries in the world, with sharp increases in inflation.

The increase in the price of oil not only drives up the cost of transportation of people and products, but also manufacturing costs. Fertiliser prices are correlated with the oil price, and it will thus drive up the production cost of grain and oilseeds.

Speaking of grain and oilseed prices, the Black Sea region (which includes Russia and Ukraine), are major exporters of wheat and sunflower seed and oil. The prices of these commodities have soared in international and South Africa markets over the past few weeks. Although it might seem like good news for our farmers, the increase in prices are offset by high fertiliser prices and the local shortage of fertiliser. This may lead to fewer hectares of wheat being planted this year in the winter rainfall regions.

Nothing good is coming from this situation

In terms of agricultural commodities, both Russia and Ukraine are important importers of South African products, especially citrus, stone fruit and grapes. Alternative markets now need to be found for these products which will affect prices negatively.

Although one needs to write a thesis to explain all the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the dogs of war have been slipped, and it is clear from the few examples that nothing good is coming from this situation. In short, we will see higher fuel prices (maybe not R40/litre, but R25 to R30/litre is possible), higher food prices, higher inflation and a higher interest rate.

These factors affect all South-Africans, especially the poor and some in the middle class who will struggle in the short term. The time has come to cut down on luxuries and tighten belts to survive in the short term until there is certainty about how the havoc in Ukraine will play out.

News Archive

Kovsie student and reigning Miss Lesotho en route to Miss World 2015

2015-11-03

Relebohile Kobeli - the beauty queen of Lesotho

Relebohile Kobeli was crowned Miss Lesotho 2015 earlier this year, and is now en route to Miss World International 2015 in China to represent the mountainous Kingdom. The beauty pageant, which takes place between November and December, will see contestants from over 150 countries contending for the title.

The nineteen-year-old second-year Geography and Environmental Management student at the University of the Free State (UFS) also won Miss Lesotho in 2014. She holds other titles, such as Miss Outeniqua 2014, and First Princess Face of Lesotho 2013.

What would it mean to be the first from Lesotho to sit on the Miss World throne?

I believe that it would be a turning point for pageantry in Lesotho. We are one of the few countries that do not fully recognise pageants, and the value they add to the tourism industry. Winning the throne would be putting into practice the theory that we, as beauty queens in Lesotho, always practice what we preach.

Since beginning this Miss World contest, in what way have you reached out to your community through the Beauty with a Purpose project?

My Beauty with a Purpose project focuses mainly on introducing and helping start up sustainable projects in communities. I wanted to move away from giving people donations to giving them the skills to ensure their long-term livelihood.

What skill sets do you possess that are essential to succeeding as an international first queen?

I am a very creative individual who thinks on her feet. That is important for me because, when you are far away from home, should things go wrong, there's no room for panic. I am sociable and human-centered, I relate to different people, regardless of cultural differences, and, as an international queen, it is important to be appreciative of others’ way of life, regardless of how different it is are from your own.

Rolene Strauss, the current Miss World, stated her ambition to capitalise on promoting forgiveness, hope, and unity during her tenure. What are you hoping to achieve, given the chance as her successor?

I would definitely speak about self-reliance among young women and the youth at large. I come from a country where not everyone is lucky enough to get a job. In such cases, young men and women fall into crime, young women become victims of sexual abuse or prostitution, and, although one may argue that that is self-reliance, is it sustainable? Is it not escaping one fire to jump into another? It is important for me to represent every girl who has ever had a dream. I am spreading the message of possibilities when the world is yelling "Impossible!"

What has been the highlight of your term as Miss Lesotho?

My greatest highlight was finding myself through service to others. I discovered that the more I invest in myself, the more of me I can give and share.

The Miss Lesotho 2016 competition is around the corner, what words of wisdom would you like to share with hopefuls?

Pageantry is not all about pretty dresses and tiaras. It is hard work. Always be humble, and remember that, whatever the outcome, it is your life's journey. You are destined for greatness. Don't deny yourself that privilege.

In your experience, what is the Kovsie feeling referred to in the maxim “Only a Kovsie knows the feeling”?

It is the desire to want to be great, the motivation to live to my full potential.

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