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11 March 2022 | Story Prof Frikkie Maré | Photo Supplied
Prof Frikkie Maré is from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Frikkie Maré, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.
In William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, Mark Antony utters the words: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war,” after learning about the murder of Julius Caesar. With these words he meant that chaos would ensue (havoc) to create the opportunity for violence (let slip the dogs of war).

The recent invasion (or military operation, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin) by Russian armed forces into Ukraine brought the famous words of Shakespeare to mind. Putin cried “Havoc!” and his troops created chaos in Ukraine. This is, however, not where it stopped because the dogs of war have been released into the rest of the world.

What is the impact on South Africa?

The day after the invasion we felt the bite of the dogs of war in South Africa. The rand suddenly weakened against the dollar, oil and gold prices increased sharply, and grain and oilseed prices on commodity markets increased 

This was before the rest of the world started to implement sanctions against Russia, which could be described as a shock reaction due to uncertainty as to how the situation would unfold. In the days after the initial market reaction we saw the markets actually “cool down” a bit, with most sharp initial reactions starting to change back to former positions. This period was, however, short-lived when the world hit back by closing airspace and borders and refusing to import products from Russia or export to them. The sanctions were in solidarity with Ukraine as an attempt to bring the Russian economy to its knees and force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine.

Although the sanctions against Russia should certainly be successful over the long term, it does not change much in the short term and we will have to deal with the international effects of this conflict. The question then is, how will this affect South Africa?

Although there are no straightforward answers, as the impact will depend on what one’s role is in the economy. One thing for certain is that the total cost will outnumber the benefits. What affects everyone in South Africa, and the starting point of many secondary effects, is the increase in the price of crude oil. Russia is the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world and if the West is going to ban the import of Russian oil we will have an international shortage. Although the banning of Russian oil is the right thing to do to support Ukraine, it will have devastating effects on all countries in the world, with sharp increases in inflation.  

The increase in the price of oil not only drives up the cost of transportation of people and products, but also manufacturing costs. Fertiliser prices are correlated with the oil price, and it will thus drive up the production cost of grain and oilseeds.

Speaking of grain and oilseed prices, the Black Sea region (which includes Russia and Ukraine), are major exporters of wheat and sunflower seed and oil. The prices of these commodities have soared in international and South Africa markets over the past few weeks. Although it might seem like good news for our farmers, the increase in prices are offset by high fertiliser prices and the local shortage of fertiliser. This may lead to fewer hectares of wheat being planted this year in the winter rainfall regions.  

Nothing good is coming from this situation

In terms of agricultural commodities, both Russia and Ukraine are important importers of South African products, especially citrus, stone fruit and grapes.  Alternative markets now need to be found for these products which will affect prices negatively.

Although one needs to write a thesis to explain all the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the dogs of war have been slipped, and it is clear from the few examples that nothing good is coming from this situation. In short, we will see higher fuel prices (maybe not R40/litre, but R25 to R30/litre is possible), higher food prices, higher inflation and a higher interest rate.  

These factors affect all South-Africans, especially the poor and some in the middle class who will struggle in the short term. The time has come to cut down on luxuries and tighten belts to survive in the short term until there is certainty about how the havoc in Ukraine will play out.

News Archive

“Every journey begins with the first steps” – Marguerite van der Merwe
2016-07-08

Description: Marguerite van der Merwe Tags: Marguerite van der Merwe

Marguerite van der Merwe, recipient of University of the
Free State Chancellor’s Medal, with Chancellor
Dr Khotso Mokhele, at the Winter Graduation ceremony.

Photo: Johan Roux

Marguerite van der Merwe has dedicated her life to the enrichment and increased quality of life for others. At the University of the Free State’s Winter Graduations on 30 June 2016, Van der Merwe and her brother, Anthony Douglas Osler, were both honoured with Chancellor’s Medals for exceptional service to South Africa and the world beyond our borders. In the early 1980s, she learned about the Alexander Technique and her life since then has been about perfecting the technique and sharing it with others. The Alexander Technique teaches people of any age, gender, occupation or interest, how to be posture-aware and perfect, how to be aware and alert, and how to be calm and discriminating, all of which are part of a practical teaching to integrate these qualities consciously into all our daily human activities.  

She walks the walk

She understood the Alexander Technique to be the perfect way to develop the body both physically and mentally, as it develops the higher mental faculties like focus, attention, awareness, consciousness, discrimination, and unfolding of the psyche, thus developing the human potential holistically as a spiritual way of being. She received her training for the technique in Cape Town and London, thereafter she published The Art of Walking, a guide to the Alexander Technique.

Van der Merwe is an internationally-certified teacher of the Alexander Technique, has been offering this work and its application in the spheres of health, education, and performance skills for 30 years, both nationally and internationally.

Van der Merwe says that the South African higher education system should encompass a holistic approach to teaching and educating. Education should envisage a modern vision of education that supports the evolution of the potential of the human being as a holistic system – a competent, skilled, caring, kind individual, developed in physical, mental, emotional and sensorial aspects. She believes that students thus educated will model ‘wholeness’ and ‘humanness’ as they take their place in society, business, education, and entrepreneurship.

Enriching women’s potential

Apart from The Art of Walking, Van der Merwe published EVE-OLUTION, a book to inspire women to listen to their intuition, and empower women to repossess their bodily wisdom, freedom, and authenticity. Van der Merwe proclaims that it is important to liberate women to take charge of their own bodies, minds, and souls. The purpose of the book is to ensure that young women soak up wisdom and encouragement and for older women to express their wisdom, which needs to be respected and listened to.

“Females and feminine roles in society and family are being liberated and acknowledged in the actions of many women as we stand for equal opportunity, equal power, and equality in many fields,” says Van der Merwe.
“Our young women in business and the higher education fraternity, for one, are strong in their views, beautiful in their presence, outspoken in leadership,” Van der Merwe concluded.

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