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Cry “Havoc!”, and let slip the dogs of war

11 March 2022 | Story Prof Frikkie Maré | Photo Supplied

Frikkie copy — Prof Frikkie Maré is from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Frikkie Maré, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.

In William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, Mark Antony utters the words: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war,” after learning about the murder of Julius Caesar. With these words he meant that chaos would ensue (havoc) to create the opportunity for violence (let slip the dogs of war).

The recent invasion (or military operation, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin) by Russian armed forces into Ukraine brought the famous words of Shakespeare to mind. Putin cried “Havoc!” and his troops created chaos in Ukraine. This is, however, not where it stopped because the dogs of war have been released into the rest of the world.

What is the impact on South Africa?

The day after the invasion we felt the bite of the dogs of war in South Africa. The rand suddenly weakened against the dollar, oil and gold prices increased sharply, and grain and oilseed prices on commodity markets increased

This was before the rest of the world started to implement sanctions against Russia, which could be described as a shock reaction due to uncertainty as to how the situation would unfold. In the days after the initial market reaction we saw the markets actually “cool down” a bit, with most sharp initial reactions starting to change back to former positions. This period was, however, short-lived when the world hit back by closing airspace and borders and refusing to import products from Russia or export to them. The sanctions were in solidarity with Ukraine as an attempt to bring the Russian economy to its knees and force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine.

Although the sanctions against Russia should certainly be successful over the long term, it does not change much in the short term and we will have to deal with the international effects of this conflict. The question then is, how will this affect South Africa?

Although there are no straightforward answers, as the impact will depend on what one’s role is in the economy. One thing for certain is that the total cost will outnumber the benefits. What affects everyone in South Africa, and the starting point of many secondary effects, is the increase in the price of crude oil. Russia is the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world and if the West is going to ban the import of Russian oil we will have an international shortage. Although the banning of Russian oil is the right thing to do to support Ukraine, it will have devastating effects on all countries in the world, with sharp increases in inflation.

The increase in the price of oil not only drives up the cost of transportation of people and products, but also manufacturing costs. Fertiliser prices are correlated with the oil price, and it will thus drive up the production cost of grain and oilseeds.

Speaking of grain and oilseed prices, the Black Sea region (which includes Russia and Ukraine), are major exporters of wheat and sunflower seed and oil. The prices of these commodities have soared in international and South Africa markets over the past few weeks. Although it might seem like good news for our farmers, the increase in prices are offset by high fertiliser prices and the local shortage of fertiliser. This may lead to fewer hectares of wheat being planted this year in the winter rainfall regions.

Nothing good is coming from this situation

In terms of agricultural commodities, both Russia and Ukraine are important importers of South African products, especially citrus, stone fruit and grapes. Alternative markets now need to be found for these products which will affect prices negatively.

Although one needs to write a thesis to explain all the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the dogs of war have been slipped, and it is clear from the few examples that nothing good is coming from this situation. In short, we will see higher fuel prices (maybe not R40/litre, but R25 to R30/litre is possible), higher food prices, higher inflation and a higher interest rate.

These factors affect all South-Africans, especially the poor and some in the middle class who will struggle in the short term. The time has come to cut down on luxuries and tighten belts to survive in the short term until there is certainty about how the havoc in Ukraine will play out.

News Archive

UFS awards honorary doctorates during its centenary week

2004-10-07

The University of the Free State (UFS) will award 12 honorary doctorates on Thursday 14 October 2004 to a diverse group of outstanding South Africans and international experts.

This will be the last in a group of 18 honorary doctorates that the UFS will be awarding in its centenary year.

The awards comprise of a number of well-known language experts and writers, experts in higher education, first-time awards in community service and development studies, as well as music.

“This reflects quality and also diversity, a spectrum of convictions as well as the recognition of persons who played a major role in changing society in the last couple of decades, “ says Prof Frederick Fourie, Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS.

The awards can be grouped in the following categories:

Language and literature:

Mr Karel Schoeman (D Litt (hc)) – well-known Afrikaans author and former student of the UFS. Some of the awards he has received include the Hertzog prize for prose (1970, 1986 and 1995), the CNA prize (1972 and 1994), the Old Mutual prize (1985 and 1991), the SABC prize for best television drama in 1990, the M Net book prize in 1997 and the State President award (former President Nelson Mandela: Order for Excellent Service – silver) in 1999. It is an honor for the UFS to have this gifted and creative person among its former students. This conferment is a fitting recognition of his status as leading South African writer.

Ms Antjie Krog (D Litt (hc)) – well-known South African poet and former student of the UFS. Her popularity as poet is evident in her piercing honesty and unequalled power of expression. Some of the awards she has received include the Eugéne Marais prize in 1973, the Rapport prize in 1987, the Hertzog prize in 1990 and the RAU prize in 2000. Her writing has been translated into seven languages. She has also received numerous honors for her involvement in and journalistic documentation of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s (TRC) proceedings. It is therefore an exceptional privilege for her alma mater to honor her with an honorary doctorate.

Prof Jaap Steyn (D Litt (et phil) (hc)) – recently, Prof Steyn again distinguished himself as biographer whose thorough research is apparent in the published biographies of illustrious writers such as NP van Wyk Louw and MER. The numerous awards, among which the Stals prize from the South African Academy of Science and Art for the Van Wyk publication, are a matter of record. He conducted the research for this great prize-winning work as honorary professor at the UFS.

Prof Jakes Gerwel (D Phil (hc)) – Chancellor of the University of Rhodes and Director of Naspers, Old Mutual, Gold Fields and Brimstone. His doctoral thesis was published in The Netherlands under the title Literatuur en apartheid. Konsepsies van “gekleurdes” in die Afrikaanse roman tot 1948 (1983). He received an honorary doctorate from Clark College ( Atlanta), the City University of New York and Missouri in the USA, the University of the Western Cape, the University of Cape Town, the University of Natal, Rhodes University, the University of Stellenbosch and the University of the Witwatersrand. He is also outstanding professor in the Humanities at the University of the Western Cape, honorary professor in the Humanities at the University of Pretoria, and was the chairman of the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC).

Development Studies:

Dr Frederick van Zyl Slabbert (D Phil (hc)) – for his academic achievements, his endeavors for bringing about a peaceful transition in South Africa and his demonstration of the social investment role of the corporate sector. Dr Van Zyl Slabbert has received honorary degrees from the University of Natal and the Simon Fraser University in Canada. He has published seven books and various academic articles.

Community Service:

Prof Robert G Bringle (D Phil (hc)) – from the Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) in the USA. He is currently Chancellor’s Professor of Psychology and Philanthropic Studies at the IUPUI and also Director of the IUPUI’s Centre for Service Learning. He is honored for his exceptional contribution to several of the UFS’s community service projects as well as his role in the advancement of a multi- and inter-disciplinary approach to academic development and the integration of service learning within the faculties of the UFS. He has also made a valuable contribution to the conceptual framework of the UFS’s unique community service policy and more recently to the advancement of a research culture regarding community service.

Higher education:

Dr Khotso Mokhele (D Phil (hc)), President of the National Research Foundation (NRF) is honored for his contribution to the South African higher education sector. He has also made a substantial contribution to the development of the research capacity of universities and technikons in South Africa. Dr Mokhele was born in Bloemfontein and matriculated at the Moroka High School in Thaba Nchu.

Prof Saleem Badat (D Phil (hc)), the Chief Executive Officer of the Council on Higher Education (CHE). Prof Badat has devoted himself to transforming and building South African higher education, and has constantly challenged the higher education sector to retain the moral basis of higher education and tackle its challenges with intellectual honesty, ingenuity, creativity and courage. He is honored for his intellectual leadership in the development of a equitable, just and quality higher education system in South Africa.

Law:

Prof HA (Boelie) Wessels (D Legum (hc)) – for his contribution to the fields of Roman Law, Legal History at the UFS. He is currently a part-time lecturer at the UFS’s Faculty of Law.

Medicine:

Prof CJC Nel (D Phil (hc) Posthumous) – for the way in which he strived for the advancement of excellent medical education in the country. Prof Nel also did pioneering work in the field of transformation in higher education. Under his guidance the School of Medicine at the UFS became one of the first medical schools to adopt a parallel-medium system of instruction.

Music:

Prof Leo Quayle (D Mus (hc)) – for the significant contributions he has made to the development of music – not only in Bloemfontein, but also on national level and abroad. His initiative, enthusiasm and dedication contributed to the eventual founding of the Free State Musicon, as well as the first symphony orchestra and the first string quartet in Bloemfontein. Prof Quayle is a former head of the Department of Music at the UFS.

Prof Jack de Wet (D Mus (hc)) – well-known for his exceptional contribution to violin tuition in South Africa. As pedagogue of international stature, he still moulds violinists who compete at national and international level. At an advanced stage of his career, he still actively conveys his knowledge, experience and distinctive insight in his field of speciality to yet another new generation of young violin teachers. Today the symphony orchestras in Bloemfontein and Port Elizabeth also stand on the foundations laid by him.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
7 October 2004

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