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Cry “Havoc!”, and let slip the dogs of war

11 March 2022 | Story Prof Frikkie Maré | Photo Supplied

Frikkie copy — Prof Frikkie Maré is from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State (UFS)

Opinion article by Prof Frikkie Maré, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.

In William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, Mark Antony utters the words: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war,” after learning about the murder of Julius Caesar. With these words he meant that chaos would ensue (havoc) to create the opportunity for violence (let slip the dogs of war).

The recent invasion (or military operation, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin) by Russian armed forces into Ukraine brought the famous words of Shakespeare to mind. Putin cried “Havoc!” and his troops created chaos in Ukraine. This is, however, not where it stopped because the dogs of war have been released into the rest of the world.

What is the impact on South Africa?

The day after the invasion we felt the bite of the dogs of war in South Africa. The rand suddenly weakened against the dollar, oil and gold prices increased sharply, and grain and oilseed prices on commodity markets increased

This was before the rest of the world started to implement sanctions against Russia, which could be described as a shock reaction due to uncertainty as to how the situation would unfold. In the days after the initial market reaction we saw the markets actually “cool down” a bit, with most sharp initial reactions starting to change back to former positions. This period was, however, short-lived when the world hit back by closing airspace and borders and refusing to import products from Russia or export to them. The sanctions were in solidarity with Ukraine as an attempt to bring the Russian economy to its knees and force the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine.

Although the sanctions against Russia should certainly be successful over the long term, it does not change much in the short term and we will have to deal with the international effects of this conflict. The question then is, how will this affect South Africa?

Although there are no straightforward answers, as the impact will depend on what one’s role is in the economy. One thing for certain is that the total cost will outnumber the benefits. What affects everyone in South Africa, and the starting point of many secondary effects, is the increase in the price of crude oil. Russia is the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world and if the West is going to ban the import of Russian oil we will have an international shortage. Although the banning of Russian oil is the right thing to do to support Ukraine, it will have devastating effects on all countries in the world, with sharp increases in inflation.

The increase in the price of oil not only drives up the cost of transportation of people and products, but also manufacturing costs. Fertiliser prices are correlated with the oil price, and it will thus drive up the production cost of grain and oilseeds.

Speaking of grain and oilseed prices, the Black Sea region (which includes Russia and Ukraine), are major exporters of wheat and sunflower seed and oil. The prices of these commodities have soared in international and South Africa markets over the past few weeks. Although it might seem like good news for our farmers, the increase in prices are offset by high fertiliser prices and the local shortage of fertiliser. This may lead to fewer hectares of wheat being planted this year in the winter rainfall regions.

Nothing good is coming from this situation

In terms of agricultural commodities, both Russia and Ukraine are important importers of South African products, especially citrus, stone fruit and grapes. Alternative markets now need to be found for these products which will affect prices negatively.

Although one needs to write a thesis to explain all the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the dogs of war have been slipped, and it is clear from the few examples that nothing good is coming from this situation. In short, we will see higher fuel prices (maybe not R40/litre, but R25 to R30/litre is possible), higher food prices, higher inflation and a higher interest rate.

These factors affect all South-Africans, especially the poor and some in the middle class who will struggle in the short term. The time has come to cut down on luxuries and tighten belts to survive in the short term until there is certainty about how the havoc in Ukraine will play out.

News Archive

Guest lecture: Mr Pretorius, CEO of McCarthy Limited

2004-11-05

The challenges facing business leaders in a rapidly changing South Africa

“The world we used to know does not exist anymore. Leaders are continually dealing with crisis and opportunities, in a high-pressure environment,” said Mr Brand Pretorius, honorary professor from the University of the Free State , delivering his 13th guest lecture on the challenges facing business leaders in a rapidly changing South Africa .

Mr Pretorius, CEO of McCarthy Limited, identified certain trends which are responsible for changes to the South African business environment. He said the South African business environment is ever-changing, fast moving, complex and unpredictable. “As business people we have to deal with the impact,” he said.

“Years ago we were globally isolated. Now we live in a shrinking borderless world with crumbling trade barriers. Globilisation of our economy is accelerating. For South African business leaders this creates a sea of export opportunities,” he said.

Although there are ongoing demands for substantial profit growth from shareholders, the days of focussing only on their interests are gone, said Mr Pretorius. Stakeholder commitment now enjoys high priority and business leaders have to deal with the challenges accompanying black economic empowerment and employment equity.

Customers are also well-informed and demanding. Business leaders could easily loose the loyalty of their customers because of a hyper-competitive environment with an oversupply of goods and services.

Mr Pretorius stated that staff want to be involved and are looking for meaning in their workplace. Employers also have to deal with HIV/Aids in their workplaces. Trauma, absenteeism and financial implications could have a great effect on the viability of a business.

Against these changes Mr Pretorius pointed out the challenges business leaders are facing. In doing so a number of questions arise. The external business climate is characterised by turbulence and change. Internally there is a need for stability and meaning. How do we handle both challenges effectively?

Because of changes strategy decay is taking place and past strategies become irrelevant. Mr Pretorius said that business leaders need to modify their business models to prevent the downfall of their companies.

It is important for leaders to know what is happening in their world. “Continuous innovation is a critical success factor. The reality is that innovation is the only insurance against irrelevance,” he said.

Because of a changed environment leaders must perform and transform, simultaneously. How do we strike a balance between focused transformation and the achievement of world class performance, asked Mr Pretorius? “We need to bring about meaningful and sustainable empowerment, in order to create an inclusive economy and society. Leadership and management profiles should reflect the diversity of our teams, however at the same time every effort should be made to stop the brain drain and retain the expertise of experienced white managers.”

He also stated that leaders have an important role to play in terms of employment creation and corporate caring. “Sustainable stability and prosperity will not materialise without efforts in this regard.”

Mr Pretorius said that above challenges could be addressed by developing the ability to focus on creating a better future, rather than defending the past, a long-term vision, facing new realities, enhancing the value of brands and mobilising IT and the Internet to serve the business and customers better.

Retaining a positive vision of the future, embracing change and transformation, building your business according to the right principles and values and aspiring to be the best are some of the guidelines, according to Mr Brand, for future business success. He stated that creating a value advantage above one’s competitors, customer satisfaction and retention and inspirational leadership will add to the success of one’s business.

“We are indeed living in the era of the ultimate challenges, but also the ultimate opportunities. Let me clearly state that I have hope – in my view the tide has turned. Every day I experience small miracles inspired by ordinary people making an extraordinary difference,” said Mr Pretorius.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
5 November 2004

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