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Opinion: The economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis

07 March 2022 | Story Sanet Madonsela | Photo supplied

SanetMadonsela_web read more — Sanet Madonsela is a PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies. She is also the Chairperson of the South African Association of Political Science's Emerging Scholars Research Committee and the Projects and Events Coordinator for the International Association for Political Science Students

Opinion article by Sanet Madonsela, PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies, University of the Free State.

On the 24 February 2022 the world woke up to the news of Russia announcing its’ “special military operation” to “demilitarise” and “deNazify” Ukraine. This announcement was followed by a sophisticated, all-out attack by land and air. As Russia began its invasion, the rest of the world watched in anguish, contemplating the unavoidable international political and economic implications.

There are competing views as to why Russia invaded Ukraine. Some argue that the attacks were based on Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, while others link the invasion to the Minsk agreements. The Minsk agreements are two treaties signed in 2014 and 2015 aimed at ending the war in Donbass. To provide a bit of context one needs to go back to 2014.

Resolution to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk

Moscow was angered that its candidate lost Ukraine’s presidential mantle in elections in 2014. This resulted in Donetsk and Luhansk announcing their autonomy from Kiev. In September of that year the government of Kiev and the separatist leaders agreed to a 12-point ceasefire called Minsk I. Despite the signing of the agreement, the fighting continued resulting in Russia, Ukraine and the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) signing Minsk II. The agreement called on Ukraine to control the state border, constitutional reform and decentralisation. Despite an election held in 2018 in the eastern regions, the US and the EU have refused to recognise the legitimacy of the vote, thus, violating the agreement. The OSCE has reported significant daily increases in ceasefire violations in the affected areas since February 2014. While the US is not a signatory, it has expressed the importance of implementing the agreement. Instead of accepting the existing agreement, Ukraine allegedly never implemented its provision thereby incensing Moscow as well as ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

On 16 February 2022, the Russian parliament adopted a resolution requesting Putin to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk. This agreement was signed on 21 February 2022 and followed by a request to deploy armed forces. Inevitably the conflict dynamics have escalated.

While some believe themselves to be immune to the conflict, economists warn that it will have far-reaching global consequences as armed conflict tends to disrupt supply chains and increase the price of food and gas. They predict a further increase in oil prices per barrel as Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter and the second largest exporter of crude oil. This is important as oil prices directly impact transportation, logistics, and air freights. On Thursday, 24 February, global oil prices past $105 per barrel warranting these predictions. In addition, Russia is the world’s largest supplier of palladium, a material used by automakers for catalytic converters and to clean car exhaust fumes, a delay which would affect auto production. It is worth noting that Ukraine is a major provider of wheat, corn, and barley. A lack of yellow maize, or even a slowdown in production, could result in an increase of meat prices.

Exports and sanctions

Combined, Russia and Ukraine export more than a third of the world’s wheat and 20% of its maize. They also account for 80% of global sunflower oil exports. They supply all major international buyers, as well as many emerging markets. In 2020, 90% of the African continent’s $4 billion agricultural imports from Russia were wheat and 6% sunflower oil. South Africa does not produce enough wheat and is heavily reliant on imports from these countries. It imported more than 30% of its wheat from these two countries over the past five years.

Western states have announced a coordinated series of sanctions aimed at Russian elites; however, critics warn that they may be ineffective as the country’s economy is large enough to absorb even the most severe sanctions. Its central bank has more than $630 billon in foreign reserves and gold. Its sovereign wealth accounts for an additional $190 billion. Russian debt accounts for a mere 20% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

The European Commission’s president, Ursula Von der Leyen, states that the bloc would target Russia’s energy sector by preventing European companies from providing Russia with the technology needed to upgrade its refineries. The US Department of Treasury has committed itself to prevent Russia’s state-owned Gazprom from raising money to fund its projects in the US. It is worth noting that Russia and Ukraine’s imports and exports to the US account for less than 1%, while Europe and Russia are interdependent. The EU needs Russian gas, while Russia needs the EU’s money. Some warn that the EU’s decision could be detrimental as it receives over a third of its natural gas from Russia. This is used for home heating and energy generation. These fears were intensified when the natural gas price in Europe increased by 62% on 24 February. It is believed that Russia has been preparing for economic isolation for years and that it could better absorb the sanctions than Europe’s ability to reduce its dependence on Russia’s oil, gas, and coal. Despite all these, Gazprom announced that its gas exports to Europe were continuing as normal.

While the world watches with bated breath as the conflict rages there are some promising signs. Russian and Ukrainian delegates are currently meeting on the border with Belarus to start a dialogue and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on Israel to serve as a mediator between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Let us pray that reason prevails.

News Archive

UFS launches projects to assist communities and current students

2011-03-16

Prof. Jonathan Jansen, UFS Vice-Chancellor and Rector and Mr Rudi Buys, Dean: Student Affairs, with learners at the Bloemfontein-Oos Intermediary School.
Photo: Stephen Collett

The University of the Free State (UFS) has launched four exciting projects set out to improve the circumstances of its current and prospective students. These include a project that will honour dedicated and influential educators.

These community service projects in the starting blocks are: the UFS Schools Partnership Project, Extreme Make-over Project, Great Teachers Project and the No Student Hungry Campaign.

The Schools Partnership Project aims to support 21 schools across the Free State in helping them to become top achievers in the next three to five years. The schools involved were selected last year, after which the groundwork for the project was finalised. Although it mainly focuses on improving scholars' results in mathematics, accounting, physical sciences and English, it is also custom-designed according to the specific needs of the school, as indicated by the respective governing bodies beforehand. As a bonus, scholars of the schools involved will be given an opportunity to be introduced to student life; something Dr Choice Makhetha, UFS Vice-Rector: External Relations (acting), claimed to be of great importance. “We will invite Grade 10 to 12 learners to winter and summer schools being presented at the university. We will connect learners with students (one student adopts one learner for the day) for them to experience campus life. Grade 12 learners will also receive an invitation to the May 2011 graduation ceremony,” Dr Makhetha said.

Adding to the university's involvement at schools on local level, the newly upgraded Bloemfontein-Oos Intermediary School with its 112 UFS-sponsored tables will officially be revealed by the end of April. Although this school's upgrade showcases the power of partnerships, it is of special importance to the university, as it also marks the first school to receive an extreme make-over as part of the 'Extreme Make-over for Schools Project'. This project, in conjunction with the local business community, university staff and students, the community, the Department of Basic Education and SIFE (Students in Free Enterprise), is considered to be a flagship project of the Vice-Chancellor and Rector, Prof. Jonathan Jansen. Part of the project’s agreement includes visits from a group of about 100 students representing campus initiatives such as the UFS’s Kovscom, Rag and SIFE, which will contribute to the improvement of the schools' resources within a period of 10 – 15 weekends. “We invite support from all corners. South Africa has a business community committed to improving the social circumstances of its community and we plead that they also come to the rescue of the Bloemfontein-Oos Intermediary School,” said Dr Makhetha.

By spreading a 'can do' attitude, the UFS aims to honour noble and remarkable teachers across the country by means of its 'Great teacher's project'. Through the project, fellow citizens are encouraged to submit their stories on their former or current teachers’ dedication and their positive impact which are often overlooked. The panel of seasoned education scholars and practitioners will select the top 500 stories based on the stories' clarity, distinctiveness, plausibility and affectability, which will be perpetuated in a book called 'Great Teachers', to be released at the end of this year. Proceeds are destined to serve as bursaries for students who wish to pursue a career in education. According to Prof. Jansen the ideal teacher is: “Somebody who was among, but stood out above, their colleagues, a person who made a lasting impact long after the details of subject matter content of examination preparation were forgotten.”

Regardless of this exceptional effort of supporting schools across the province, the UFS remains committed to its students and their social welfare by means of the 'No student hungry' campaign. This project provides financially challenged students the opportunity to purchase food from the Thakaneng Bridge on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein by using their student cards at two selected kiosks serving balanced meals. The project, which is under the guardianship of Ms Grace Jansen and Dr Carin Buys, relies solely on several fund-raising projects across the country. These women are the respective spouses of the Rector and Dean: Student Affairs, Mr Rudi Buys. According to Ms Jansen this initiative was proposed after UFS staff reported that many students were struggling to concentrate on their studies due to hunger pangs. Although the campaign recognizes students with strong academic records, it doesn't overlook those who need a food bursary which might result in them dropping out. Ms Jansen said as the external funds gathered increase, so will the amount of students being supported by the project. “The plan is to continue until the fate of hungry students had come to an end,” she said.

Media Release
14 March 2011
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za

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