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Opinion: The economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis

07 March 2022 | Story Sanet Madonsela | Photo supplied

SanetMadonsela_web read more — Sanet Madonsela is a PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies. She is also the Chairperson of the South African Association of Political Science's Emerging Scholars Research Committee and the Projects and Events Coordinator for the International Association for Political Science Students

Opinion article by Sanet Madonsela, PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies, University of the Free State.

On the 24 February 2022 the world woke up to the news of Russia announcing its’ “special military operation” to “demilitarise” and “deNazify” Ukraine. This announcement was followed by a sophisticated, all-out attack by land and air. As Russia began its invasion, the rest of the world watched in anguish, contemplating the unavoidable international political and economic implications.

There are competing views as to why Russia invaded Ukraine. Some argue that the attacks were based on Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, while others link the invasion to the Minsk agreements. The Minsk agreements are two treaties signed in 2014 and 2015 aimed at ending the war in Donbass. To provide a bit of context one needs to go back to 2014.

Resolution to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk

Moscow was angered that its candidate lost Ukraine’s presidential mantle in elections in 2014. This resulted in Donetsk and Luhansk announcing their autonomy from Kiev. In September of that year the government of Kiev and the separatist leaders agreed to a 12-point ceasefire called Minsk I. Despite the signing of the agreement, the fighting continued resulting in Russia, Ukraine and the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) signing Minsk II. The agreement called on Ukraine to control the state border, constitutional reform and decentralisation. Despite an election held in 2018 in the eastern regions, the US and the EU have refused to recognise the legitimacy of the vote, thus, violating the agreement. The OSCE has reported significant daily increases in ceasefire violations in the affected areas since February 2014. While the US is not a signatory, it has expressed the importance of implementing the agreement. Instead of accepting the existing agreement, Ukraine allegedly never implemented its provision thereby incensing Moscow as well as ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

On 16 February 2022, the Russian parliament adopted a resolution requesting Putin to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk. This agreement was signed on 21 February 2022 and followed by a request to deploy armed forces. Inevitably the conflict dynamics have escalated.

While some believe themselves to be immune to the conflict, economists warn that it will have far-reaching global consequences as armed conflict tends to disrupt supply chains and increase the price of food and gas. They predict a further increase in oil prices per barrel as Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter and the second largest exporter of crude oil. This is important as oil prices directly impact transportation, logistics, and air freights. On Thursday, 24 February, global oil prices past $105 per barrel warranting these predictions. In addition, Russia is the world’s largest supplier of palladium, a material used by automakers for catalytic converters and to clean car exhaust fumes, a delay which would affect auto production. It is worth noting that Ukraine is a major provider of wheat, corn, and barley. A lack of yellow maize, or even a slowdown in production, could result in an increase of meat prices.

Exports and sanctions

Combined, Russia and Ukraine export more than a third of the world’s wheat and 20% of its maize. They also account for 80% of global sunflower oil exports. They supply all major international buyers, as well as many emerging markets. In 2020, 90% of the African continent’s $4 billion agricultural imports from Russia were wheat and 6% sunflower oil. South Africa does not produce enough wheat and is heavily reliant on imports from these countries. It imported more than 30% of its wheat from these two countries over the past five years.

Western states have announced a coordinated series of sanctions aimed at Russian elites; however, critics warn that they may be ineffective as the country’s economy is large enough to absorb even the most severe sanctions. Its central bank has more than $630 billon in foreign reserves and gold. Its sovereign wealth accounts for an additional $190 billion. Russian debt accounts for a mere 20% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

The European Commission’s president, Ursula Von der Leyen, states that the bloc would target Russia’s energy sector by preventing European companies from providing Russia with the technology needed to upgrade its refineries. The US Department of Treasury has committed itself to prevent Russia’s state-owned Gazprom from raising money to fund its projects in the US. It is worth noting that Russia and Ukraine’s imports and exports to the US account for less than 1%, while Europe and Russia are interdependent. The EU needs Russian gas, while Russia needs the EU’s money. Some warn that the EU’s decision could be detrimental as it receives over a third of its natural gas from Russia. This is used for home heating and energy generation. These fears were intensified when the natural gas price in Europe increased by 62% on 24 February. It is believed that Russia has been preparing for economic isolation for years and that it could better absorb the sanctions than Europe’s ability to reduce its dependence on Russia’s oil, gas, and coal. Despite all these, Gazprom announced that its gas exports to Europe were continuing as normal.

While the world watches with bated breath as the conflict rages there are some promising signs. Russian and Ukrainian delegates are currently meeting on the border with Belarus to start a dialogue and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on Israel to serve as a mediator between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Let us pray that reason prevails.

News Archive

UFS receives record number of applications

2011-12-31

The University of the Free State (UFS) is looking forward to the start of the new academic year in January 2012, when thousands of new students will be joining the Kovsie family.

The UFS received almost 13 000 applications for studies in 2012. This is an increase of about 80% compared to the total number of applications received in 2010 for studies in 2011.

This increase is partly attributed to the university’s new method in approaching prospective students and the marketing initiatives followed during 2011. These included visits to various schools in the country by the Vice-Chancellor and Rector, Prof. Jonathan Jansen.

“This shows that the UFS is becoming a preferred place of study. Unfortunately, we can only take in about 4 000 first-years from these applications. We will, of course, choose the best and most diverse class of students,” says Prof. Jansen.

The university’s marketing initiatives will be intensified next year where students will take part as ambassadors in the university’s student recruitment campaigns for 2013.

Mr.Rudi Buys, The Dean of Student Affairs at the UFS, says Prof. Jansen’s visit to various schools in the country was very successful. This will be continued in 2012 and student leaders from residences, associations as well as the Student Representative Council will accompany him on these visits during the course of the year.

“These learners, just like our students, are part of a new generation of new democratic South Africans. Our students are excellent examples of youth leadership in the country and we are very excited about all our initiatives,” Mr Buys said.

The UFS is aware of the fact that learners will only receive their final Grade 12 results in January 2012. Final admission will therefore only be granted upon the submission of a certified copy of the matriculation results. Fax these results to 086 586 8947 or e-mail to applications@ufs.ac.za as soon as it is available.

Important dates for Bloemfontein students

Friday and Saturday 13 & 14 January 2012: Welcoming of new first-years
Sunday 15 January: Gateway College life programme (Bloemfontein edition) begins)
Monday 16 January 2012: Registration starts

Important dates for Qwaqwa students

Thursday 12 January 2012: Arrival of first-years
Friday 13 January 2012: Gateway College Life programme (Qwaqwa edition) begins.
Monday 16 January 2012: Registration starts

For more information, Bloemfontein students can contact Student Affairs at 051 401 9102 or send an e-mail to Cornelia Faasen at faasenc@ufs.ac.za . Qwaqwa students can contact Dulcie Malimabe at 058 718 5018 or send an e-mail to malimabedp@qwa.ufs.ac.za

Media Release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication
Telephone: +27 (0) 51 401 2584
+27 (0) 83 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za
Fax: +27 (0) 51 444 6393
Web: www.ufs.ac.za

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