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Opinion: The economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis

07 March 2022 | Story Sanet Madonsela | Photo supplied

SanetMadonsela_web read more — Sanet Madonsela is a PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies. She is also the Chairperson of the South African Association of Political Science's Emerging Scholars Research Committee and the Projects and Events Coordinator for the International Association for Political Science Students

Opinion article by Sanet Madonsela, PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies, University of the Free State.

On the 24 February 2022 the world woke up to the news of Russia announcing its’ “special military operation” to “demilitarise” and “deNazify” Ukraine. This announcement was followed by a sophisticated, all-out attack by land and air. As Russia began its invasion, the rest of the world watched in anguish, contemplating the unavoidable international political and economic implications.

There are competing views as to why Russia invaded Ukraine. Some argue that the attacks were based on Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, while others link the invasion to the Minsk agreements. The Minsk agreements are two treaties signed in 2014 and 2015 aimed at ending the war in Donbass. To provide a bit of context one needs to go back to 2014.

Resolution to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk

Moscow was angered that its candidate lost Ukraine’s presidential mantle in elections in 2014. This resulted in Donetsk and Luhansk announcing their autonomy from Kiev. In September of that year the government of Kiev and the separatist leaders agreed to a 12-point ceasefire called Minsk I. Despite the signing of the agreement, the fighting continued resulting in Russia, Ukraine and the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) signing Minsk II. The agreement called on Ukraine to control the state border, constitutional reform and decentralisation. Despite an election held in 2018 in the eastern regions, the US and the EU have refused to recognise the legitimacy of the vote, thus, violating the agreement. The OSCE has reported significant daily increases in ceasefire violations in the affected areas since February 2014. While the US is not a signatory, it has expressed the importance of implementing the agreement. Instead of accepting the existing agreement, Ukraine allegedly never implemented its provision thereby incensing Moscow as well as ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

On 16 February 2022, the Russian parliament adopted a resolution requesting Putin to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk. This agreement was signed on 21 February 2022 and followed by a request to deploy armed forces. Inevitably the conflict dynamics have escalated.

While some believe themselves to be immune to the conflict, economists warn that it will have far-reaching global consequences as armed conflict tends to disrupt supply chains and increase the price of food and gas. They predict a further increase in oil prices per barrel as Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter and the second largest exporter of crude oil. This is important as oil prices directly impact transportation, logistics, and air freights. On Thursday, 24 February, global oil prices past $105 per barrel warranting these predictions. In addition, Russia is the world’s largest supplier of palladium, a material used by automakers for catalytic converters and to clean car exhaust fumes, a delay which would affect auto production. It is worth noting that Ukraine is a major provider of wheat, corn, and barley. A lack of yellow maize, or even a slowdown in production, could result in an increase of meat prices.

Exports and sanctions

Combined, Russia and Ukraine export more than a third of the world’s wheat and 20% of its maize. They also account for 80% of global sunflower oil exports. They supply all major international buyers, as well as many emerging markets. In 2020, 90% of the African continent’s $4 billion agricultural imports from Russia were wheat and 6% sunflower oil. South Africa does not produce enough wheat and is heavily reliant on imports from these countries. It imported more than 30% of its wheat from these two countries over the past five years.

Western states have announced a coordinated series of sanctions aimed at Russian elites; however, critics warn that they may be ineffective as the country’s economy is large enough to absorb even the most severe sanctions. Its central bank has more than $630 billon in foreign reserves and gold. Its sovereign wealth accounts for an additional $190 billion. Russian debt accounts for a mere 20% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

The European Commission’s president, Ursula Von der Leyen, states that the bloc would target Russia’s energy sector by preventing European companies from providing Russia with the technology needed to upgrade its refineries. The US Department of Treasury has committed itself to prevent Russia’s state-owned Gazprom from raising money to fund its projects in the US. It is worth noting that Russia and Ukraine’s imports and exports to the US account for less than 1%, while Europe and Russia are interdependent. The EU needs Russian gas, while Russia needs the EU’s money. Some warn that the EU’s decision could be detrimental as it receives over a third of its natural gas from Russia. This is used for home heating and energy generation. These fears were intensified when the natural gas price in Europe increased by 62% on 24 February. It is believed that Russia has been preparing for economic isolation for years and that it could better absorb the sanctions than Europe’s ability to reduce its dependence on Russia’s oil, gas, and coal. Despite all these, Gazprom announced that its gas exports to Europe were continuing as normal.

While the world watches with bated breath as the conflict rages there are some promising signs. Russian and Ukrainian delegates are currently meeting on the border with Belarus to start a dialogue and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on Israel to serve as a mediator between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Let us pray that reason prevails.

News Archive

UFS Rose Ball promises to be an unforgettable experience

2005-09-08

On Saturday 15 of October 2005, the Department of Paediatrics and Child Health at the University of the Free State (UFS) in collaboration with Medi-Clinic, are hosting a Rose Ball in aid of children and babies with serious diseases and special needs.

The Bloemfontein public should get ready for one of the most magnificent events ever held in the city.

The Rose Ball promises to offer an evening of glamour, elegance and beauty which will make it an unforgettable and unique event. The Department aims to make the Rose Ball an annual event to which the Bloemfontein public can look forward to with expectation.

“Excellent food and wine, a 35 man symphony orchestra and of course a magical setting awaits those who attend the Rose Ball. We will do everything possible to make guests feel special, so that they return to the Rose Ball year after year. In this way, we can ensure an annual income from this event for children and babies who are very ill and need specialised care,” said Prof. André Venter, Head of the Department of Paediatrics and Child Health.

The Department of Paediatrics and Child Health at the UFS is responsible for the tertiary care, that is highly specialised care, of around 1 000 000 children in the Free State, Northern Cape, North-West, Eastern Cape and Lesotho. Approximately 13 000 out-patients are treated at the Universitas and Pelonomi Hospitals annually. Children who suffer from cancer, heart disease, neurological disease and endocrinological and gastro-enterological conditions are treated. The Department is also responsible for children who need intensive care and children with contagious diseases. In addition, there is a large neonatal unit where prematurely born babies are treated.

The level of health care needed to treat these children and babies, necessitate highly specialised equipment and knowledge. However, it is not always possible to replace or upgrade equipment, due to the lack of much-needed funds. That is why a fund was created within the Department to satisfy the need for funds. The Rose Ball promises to eventually give a vital boost to the fund that will go a long way toward providing in the special healthcare needs of these patients.

The Rose Ball is made possible thanks to the support of Medi-Clinic.

“Medi-Clinic is honoured to be involved in this great effort and in this way take hands with the Department of Paediatrics and Child Health at the UFS. There are so many children with life-threatening diseases today and we cannot afford to be uninvolved in any effort to make life better and easier for these children. We at Medi-Clinic, as a private sector company, look forward to establishing a long-term commitment with the Department of Paediatrics and Child Health,” said Mr Sakkie van der Merwe, Hospital Manager of Bloemfontein Medi-Clinic.

Only a limited number of tables are still available for the Rose Ball. Tickets cost R500 per person or R5 000 per table of 10 people.

Those who are interested can contact Ms Ilse Olivier at 051-4012415 or Ms Adele van Aswegen at 051-4013535 for more information.

Media release
Issued by:  Lacea Loader
   Media Representative
   Tel: (051) 401-2584
   Cell: 083 645 2454
   E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
8 September 2005

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