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Opinion: The economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis

07 March 2022 | Story Sanet Madonsela | Photo supplied

SanetMadonsela_web read more — Sanet Madonsela is a PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies. She is also the Chairperson of the South African Association of Political Science's Emerging Scholars Research Committee and the Projects and Events Coordinator for the International Association for Political Science Students

Opinion article by Sanet Madonsela, PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies, University of the Free State.

On the 24 February 2022 the world woke up to the news of Russia announcing its’ “special military operation” to “demilitarise” and “deNazify” Ukraine. This announcement was followed by a sophisticated, all-out attack by land and air. As Russia began its invasion, the rest of the world watched in anguish, contemplating the unavoidable international political and economic implications.

There are competing views as to why Russia invaded Ukraine. Some argue that the attacks were based on Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, while others link the invasion to the Minsk agreements. The Minsk agreements are two treaties signed in 2014 and 2015 aimed at ending the war in Donbass. To provide a bit of context one needs to go back to 2014.

Resolution to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk

Moscow was angered that its candidate lost Ukraine’s presidential mantle in elections in 2014. This resulted in Donetsk and Luhansk announcing their autonomy from Kiev. In September of that year the government of Kiev and the separatist leaders agreed to a 12-point ceasefire called Minsk I. Despite the signing of the agreement, the fighting continued resulting in Russia, Ukraine and the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) signing Minsk II. The agreement called on Ukraine to control the state border, constitutional reform and decentralisation. Despite an election held in 2018 in the eastern regions, the US and the EU have refused to recognise the legitimacy of the vote, thus, violating the agreement. The OSCE has reported significant daily increases in ceasefire violations in the affected areas since February 2014. While the US is not a signatory, it has expressed the importance of implementing the agreement. Instead of accepting the existing agreement, Ukraine allegedly never implemented its provision thereby incensing Moscow as well as ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

On 16 February 2022, the Russian parliament adopted a resolution requesting Putin to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk. This agreement was signed on 21 February 2022 and followed by a request to deploy armed forces. Inevitably the conflict dynamics have escalated.

While some believe themselves to be immune to the conflict, economists warn that it will have far-reaching global consequences as armed conflict tends to disrupt supply chains and increase the price of food and gas. They predict a further increase in oil prices per barrel as Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter and the second largest exporter of crude oil. This is important as oil prices directly impact transportation, logistics, and air freights. On Thursday, 24 February, global oil prices past $105 per barrel warranting these predictions. In addition, Russia is the world’s largest supplier of palladium, a material used by automakers for catalytic converters and to clean car exhaust fumes, a delay which would affect auto production. It is worth noting that Ukraine is a major provider of wheat, corn, and barley. A lack of yellow maize, or even a slowdown in production, could result in an increase of meat prices.

Exports and sanctions

Combined, Russia and Ukraine export more than a third of the world’s wheat and 20% of its maize. They also account for 80% of global sunflower oil exports. They supply all major international buyers, as well as many emerging markets. In 2020, 90% of the African continent’s $4 billion agricultural imports from Russia were wheat and 6% sunflower oil. South Africa does not produce enough wheat and is heavily reliant on imports from these countries. It imported more than 30% of its wheat from these two countries over the past five years.

Western states have announced a coordinated series of sanctions aimed at Russian elites; however, critics warn that they may be ineffective as the country’s economy is large enough to absorb even the most severe sanctions. Its central bank has more than $630 billon in foreign reserves and gold. Its sovereign wealth accounts for an additional $190 billion. Russian debt accounts for a mere 20% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

The European Commission’s president, Ursula Von der Leyen, states that the bloc would target Russia’s energy sector by preventing European companies from providing Russia with the technology needed to upgrade its refineries. The US Department of Treasury has committed itself to prevent Russia’s state-owned Gazprom from raising money to fund its projects in the US. It is worth noting that Russia and Ukraine’s imports and exports to the US account for less than 1%, while Europe and Russia are interdependent. The EU needs Russian gas, while Russia needs the EU’s money. Some warn that the EU’s decision could be detrimental as it receives over a third of its natural gas from Russia. This is used for home heating and energy generation. These fears were intensified when the natural gas price in Europe increased by 62% on 24 February. It is believed that Russia has been preparing for economic isolation for years and that it could better absorb the sanctions than Europe’s ability to reduce its dependence on Russia’s oil, gas, and coal. Despite all these, Gazprom announced that its gas exports to Europe were continuing as normal.

While the world watches with bated breath as the conflict rages there are some promising signs. Russian and Ukrainian delegates are currently meeting on the border with Belarus to start a dialogue and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on Israel to serve as a mediator between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Let us pray that reason prevails.

News Archive

UFS and Mexico forge links

2006-03-30

Some of the guests attending the signing of the memorandum of agreement were in front from the left Prof Wijnand Swart (Chairperson: Centre for Plant Health Management at the UFS), His Excellency Mauricio de Maria y Campos (Ambassador of Mexico in Southern Africa), Prof Magda Fourie (Vice-Rector: Academic Planning at the UFS) and Dr José Sergio Barrales Domínguez (Rector of the University of Chapingo in Mexico).
Photo: Stephen Collett

UFS and Mexico forge links
The Centre for Plant Health Management (CePHMa) in the Department of Plant Sciences at the University of the Free State (UFS) is presenting its first international conference. The conference started yesterday and will run until tomorrow (Friday 31 March 2006) on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein.

The conference is the first on cactus pear (or prickly pear) in South Africa since 1995. It coincides with 2006 being declared as International Year of Deserts and Desertification by the United Nations General Assembly.

During the opening session of the conference yesterday a memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed between CePHMa and the University of Chapingo (Universidad Autonoma Chapingo) in Mexico. The signing ceremony was attended by the Ambassador of Mexico in Southern Africa, His Excellency Mauricio de Maria y Campos, the Rector of the University of Chapingo, Dr José Sergio Barrales Domínguez, and the Vice-Rector: Academic Planning of the UFS, Prof Magda Fourie, amongst other important dignitaries.

“South Africa and Mexico have a lot in common where agricultural practices in semi-arid areas and the role of the cactus pear are concerned,” said Prof Wijnand Swart, Chairperson of CePHMa at the opening of the conference.

He said that the MOU is the result of negotiations between CePHMa and the Ambassador of Mexico in Southern Africa over the past 12 months.

“The MOU facilitates the negotiation of international cooperative academic initiatives between the two institutions. This entails the exchange of students and staff members of the UFS, curriculum development, research and community service,” said Prof Swart.

“During the next two days, various areas of interest will be discussed. This includes perspectives from commercial cactus pear farmers in South Africa, the health management of cactus pear orchards, selection of new cultivars of cactus pear, and the nutritional and medicinal value of the crop,” said Prof Swart.

In his welcoming message Prof Swart explained that in recent years there has been increased interest in the cactus pear for the important role it can play in sustainable agricultural systems in marginal areas of the world. These plants have developed phenological and physiological adaptations to sustain their development in adverse environments.

“The cactus pear can serve as a life saving crop to both humans and animals living in marginal regions by providing a highly digestible source of energy, water, minerals and protein,” said Prof Swart.

“In an age when global warming and its negative impact on earth’s climate has become an everyday subject of discussion, the exploitation of salt and drought tolerant crops will undoubtedly have many socio-economic benefits to communities inhabiting semi-arid regions,” said Prof Swart.

“Plantations of cactus pear grown for fruit, forage and vegetable production, as well as for natural red dye produced from the cactus scale insect known as cochineal have, over the last two decades, been established in many countries in South America, Europe, Asia and Africa. The crop and its products have not only become important in international markets, but also in local markets across the globe,” said Prof Swart.

Detailed discussions on the implementation of the MOU will take place between CePHMa and the University of Chapingo after the conference.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
30 March 2006

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