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Opinion: The economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis

07 March 2022 | Story Sanet Madonsela | Photo supplied

SanetMadonsela_web read more — Sanet Madonsela is a PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies. She is also the Chairperson of the South African Association of Political Science's Emerging Scholars Research Committee and the Projects and Events Coordinator for the International Association for Political Science Students

Opinion article by Sanet Madonsela, PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies, University of the Free State.

On the 24 February 2022 the world woke up to the news of Russia announcing its’ “special military operation” to “demilitarise” and “deNazify” Ukraine. This announcement was followed by a sophisticated, all-out attack by land and air. As Russia began its invasion, the rest of the world watched in anguish, contemplating the unavoidable international political and economic implications.

There are competing views as to why Russia invaded Ukraine. Some argue that the attacks were based on Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, while others link the invasion to the Minsk agreements. The Minsk agreements are two treaties signed in 2014 and 2015 aimed at ending the war in Donbass. To provide a bit of context one needs to go back to 2014.

Resolution to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk

Moscow was angered that its candidate lost Ukraine’s presidential mantle in elections in 2014. This resulted in Donetsk and Luhansk announcing their autonomy from Kiev. In September of that year the government of Kiev and the separatist leaders agreed to a 12-point ceasefire called Minsk I. Despite the signing of the agreement, the fighting continued resulting in Russia, Ukraine and the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) signing Minsk II. The agreement called on Ukraine to control the state border, constitutional reform and decentralisation. Despite an election held in 2018 in the eastern regions, the US and the EU have refused to recognise the legitimacy of the vote, thus, violating the agreement. The OSCE has reported significant daily increases in ceasefire violations in the affected areas since February 2014. While the US is not a signatory, it has expressed the importance of implementing the agreement. Instead of accepting the existing agreement, Ukraine allegedly never implemented its provision thereby incensing Moscow as well as ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

On 16 February 2022, the Russian parliament adopted a resolution requesting Putin to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk. This agreement was signed on 21 February 2022 and followed by a request to deploy armed forces. Inevitably the conflict dynamics have escalated.

While some believe themselves to be immune to the conflict, economists warn that it will have far-reaching global consequences as armed conflict tends to disrupt supply chains and increase the price of food and gas. They predict a further increase in oil prices per barrel as Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter and the second largest exporter of crude oil. This is important as oil prices directly impact transportation, logistics, and air freights. On Thursday, 24 February, global oil prices past $105 per barrel warranting these predictions. In addition, Russia is the world’s largest supplier of palladium, a material used by automakers for catalytic converters and to clean car exhaust fumes, a delay which would affect auto production. It is worth noting that Ukraine is a major provider of wheat, corn, and barley. A lack of yellow maize, or even a slowdown in production, could result in an increase of meat prices.

Exports and sanctions

Combined, Russia and Ukraine export more than a third of the world’s wheat and 20% of its maize. They also account for 80% of global sunflower oil exports. They supply all major international buyers, as well as many emerging markets. In 2020, 90% of the African continent’s $4 billion agricultural imports from Russia were wheat and 6% sunflower oil. South Africa does not produce enough wheat and is heavily reliant on imports from these countries. It imported more than 30% of its wheat from these two countries over the past five years.

Western states have announced a coordinated series of sanctions aimed at Russian elites; however, critics warn that they may be ineffective as the country’s economy is large enough to absorb even the most severe sanctions. Its central bank has more than $630 billon in foreign reserves and gold. Its sovereign wealth accounts for an additional $190 billion. Russian debt accounts for a mere 20% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

The European Commission’s president, Ursula Von der Leyen, states that the bloc would target Russia’s energy sector by preventing European companies from providing Russia with the technology needed to upgrade its refineries. The US Department of Treasury has committed itself to prevent Russia’s state-owned Gazprom from raising money to fund its projects in the US. It is worth noting that Russia and Ukraine’s imports and exports to the US account for less than 1%, while Europe and Russia are interdependent. The EU needs Russian gas, while Russia needs the EU’s money. Some warn that the EU’s decision could be detrimental as it receives over a third of its natural gas from Russia. This is used for home heating and energy generation. These fears were intensified when the natural gas price in Europe increased by 62% on 24 February. It is believed that Russia has been preparing for economic isolation for years and that it could better absorb the sanctions than Europe’s ability to reduce its dependence on Russia’s oil, gas, and coal. Despite all these, Gazprom announced that its gas exports to Europe were continuing as normal.

While the world watches with bated breath as the conflict rages there are some promising signs. Russian and Ukrainian delegates are currently meeting on the border with Belarus to start a dialogue and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on Israel to serve as a mediator between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Let us pray that reason prevails.

News Archive

UFS SIFE is the best in SA!

2004-07-09

The SIFE team celebrates their victory with Jack Shewmaker, founder of SIFE in 1975 and past-president of Walmart in the USA, and Moses Kgosana, Chairman of KPMG SA.

The Students in Free Enterprise (SIFE) team of the University of the Free State competed in the National SIFE championships on Thursday, June 17, 2004 at Ceasar’s Convention Centre in Johannesburg.

Strong competition was experienced from the other ten participant SA universities, e.g. the Universities of the Western Cape, Kwazulu-Natal, Cape Town and RAU, but die UFS SIFE team retained the national championship for the third year running.

The team will now represent South Africa and the University of the Free State in Barcelona, Spain at die SIFE World Cup. The competition will be held from 22 to 24 September 2004.

The presentation team members for the competition were Tsholofelo Tlhomelang, Imameleng Matete, Kenneth Lefa, Kabelo Lephaka, Nadia van Staden, Tshepo Mahloko (Multi-Media), Werner Schmidt (Faculty Advisor). Supporting the presentation team were Lineo Peete, Keketso Ntene, Ruth Morienyane, Motaung Mathaba, Tshireletso Seekoe, Peter Letsoalo, Obakeng Msuthwana, Tshepiso Lebentle, JC Langeveldt and Michelle Stanley.

SIFE is a world-wide non-profit organisation with the express aim of encouraging students to spread their business knowledge - gained in the classroom - to the community, to promote and expand the principles of free enterprise.( www.sife.org )

The criteria by which SIFE-projects are measured are the following:

• How free markets work in the global economy.
• How entrepreneurs succeed by identifying a market need and then profitably producing and marketing a product or service to fill that need.
• The personal entrepreneurial, communications, technology and financial management skills needed to successfully compete.
• Practicing business in an ethical and socially responsible manner that supports the principles of a market economy.
• Measuring the results of projects, utilizing mass media and the Internet, involving non-business majors and utilizing a Business Advisory Board, communicating the program through a written report and verbal presentation.

The UFS’ SIFE-team’s presentation complied with all the above mentioned criteria. SIFE UFS’ education drive stretched from primary school learners, to adults who had been working for thirty years – this diverse group was taught about the free market system and its value in the global village. Business ethics and basic business principles were communicated in a fun and interactive way to learners. High-level business advice was given to entrepreneurs who started new projects, e.g. a brick-maker, and marketing advice were given to existing businesses in need of expansion.

If you are interested in helping SIFE UFS achieve its goals, e-mail Werner Schmidt at
schmidtw.ekw@mail.uovs.ac.za or phone him at 051 – 401 3376.

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