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Opinion: The economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis

07 March 2022 | Story Sanet Madonsela | Photo supplied

SanetMadonsela_web read more — Sanet Madonsela is a PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies. She is also the Chairperson of the South African Association of Political Science's Emerging Scholars Research Committee and the Projects and Events Coordinator for the International Association for Political Science Students

Opinion article by Sanet Madonsela, PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies, University of the Free State.

On the 24 February 2022 the world woke up to the news of Russia announcing its’ “special military operation” to “demilitarise” and “deNazify” Ukraine. This announcement was followed by a sophisticated, all-out attack by land and air. As Russia began its invasion, the rest of the world watched in anguish, contemplating the unavoidable international political and economic implications.

There are competing views as to why Russia invaded Ukraine. Some argue that the attacks were based on Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, while others link the invasion to the Minsk agreements. The Minsk agreements are two treaties signed in 2014 and 2015 aimed at ending the war in Donbass. To provide a bit of context one needs to go back to 2014.

Resolution to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk

Moscow was angered that its candidate lost Ukraine’s presidential mantle in elections in 2014. This resulted in Donetsk and Luhansk announcing their autonomy from Kiev. In September of that year the government of Kiev and the separatist leaders agreed to a 12-point ceasefire called Minsk I. Despite the signing of the agreement, the fighting continued resulting in Russia, Ukraine and the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) signing Minsk II. The agreement called on Ukraine to control the state border, constitutional reform and decentralisation. Despite an election held in 2018 in the eastern regions, the US and the EU have refused to recognise the legitimacy of the vote, thus, violating the agreement. The OSCE has reported significant daily increases in ceasefire violations in the affected areas since February 2014. While the US is not a signatory, it has expressed the importance of implementing the agreement. Instead of accepting the existing agreement, Ukraine allegedly never implemented its provision thereby incensing Moscow as well as ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

On 16 February 2022, the Russian parliament adopted a resolution requesting Putin to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk. This agreement was signed on 21 February 2022 and followed by a request to deploy armed forces. Inevitably the conflict dynamics have escalated.

While some believe themselves to be immune to the conflict, economists warn that it will have far-reaching global consequences as armed conflict tends to disrupt supply chains and increase the price of food and gas. They predict a further increase in oil prices per barrel as Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter and the second largest exporter of crude oil. This is important as oil prices directly impact transportation, logistics, and air freights. On Thursday, 24 February, global oil prices past $105 per barrel warranting these predictions. In addition, Russia is the world’s largest supplier of palladium, a material used by automakers for catalytic converters and to clean car exhaust fumes, a delay which would affect auto production. It is worth noting that Ukraine is a major provider of wheat, corn, and barley. A lack of yellow maize, or even a slowdown in production, could result in an increase of meat prices.

Exports and sanctions

Combined, Russia and Ukraine export more than a third of the world’s wheat and 20% of its maize. They also account for 80% of global sunflower oil exports. They supply all major international buyers, as well as many emerging markets. In 2020, 90% of the African continent’s $4 billion agricultural imports from Russia were wheat and 6% sunflower oil. South Africa does not produce enough wheat and is heavily reliant on imports from these countries. It imported more than 30% of its wheat from these two countries over the past five years.

Western states have announced a coordinated series of sanctions aimed at Russian elites; however, critics warn that they may be ineffective as the country’s economy is large enough to absorb even the most severe sanctions. Its central bank has more than $630 billon in foreign reserves and gold. Its sovereign wealth accounts for an additional $190 billion. Russian debt accounts for a mere 20% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

The European Commission’s president, Ursula Von der Leyen, states that the bloc would target Russia’s energy sector by preventing European companies from providing Russia with the technology needed to upgrade its refineries. The US Department of Treasury has committed itself to prevent Russia’s state-owned Gazprom from raising money to fund its projects in the US. It is worth noting that Russia and Ukraine’s imports and exports to the US account for less than 1%, while Europe and Russia are interdependent. The EU needs Russian gas, while Russia needs the EU’s money. Some warn that the EU’s decision could be detrimental as it receives over a third of its natural gas from Russia. This is used for home heating and energy generation. These fears were intensified when the natural gas price in Europe increased by 62% on 24 February. It is believed that Russia has been preparing for economic isolation for years and that it could better absorb the sanctions than Europe’s ability to reduce its dependence on Russia’s oil, gas, and coal. Despite all these, Gazprom announced that its gas exports to Europe were continuing as normal.

While the world watches with bated breath as the conflict rages there are some promising signs. Russian and Ukrainian delegates are currently meeting on the border with Belarus to start a dialogue and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on Israel to serve as a mediator between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Let us pray that reason prevails.

News Archive

Kovsie student and reigning Miss Lesotho en route to Miss World 2015

2015-11-03

Relebohile Kobeli - the beauty queen of Lesotho

Relebohile Kobeli was crowned Miss Lesotho 2015 earlier this year, and is now en route to Miss World International 2015 in China to represent the mountainous Kingdom. The beauty pageant, which takes place between November and December, will see contestants from over 150 countries contending for the title.

The nineteen-year-old second-year Geography and Environmental Management student at the University of the Free State (UFS) also won Miss Lesotho in 2014. She holds other titles, such as Miss Outeniqua 2014, and First Princess Face of Lesotho 2013.

What would it mean to be the first from Lesotho to sit on the Miss World throne?

I believe that it would be a turning point for pageantry in Lesotho. We are one of the few countries that do not fully recognise pageants, and the value they add to the tourism industry. Winning the throne would be putting into practice the theory that we, as beauty queens in Lesotho, always practice what we preach.

Since beginning this Miss World contest, in what way have you reached out to your community through the Beauty with a Purpose project?

My Beauty with a Purpose project focuses mainly on introducing and helping start up sustainable projects in communities. I wanted to move away from giving people donations to giving them the skills to ensure their long-term livelihood.

What skill sets do you possess that are essential to succeeding as an international first queen?

I am a very creative individual who thinks on her feet. That is important for me because, when you are far away from home, should things go wrong, there's no room for panic. I am sociable and human-centered, I relate to different people, regardless of cultural differences, and, as an international queen, it is important to be appreciative of others’ way of life, regardless of how different it is are from your own.

Rolene Strauss, the current Miss World, stated her ambition to capitalise on promoting forgiveness, hope, and unity during her tenure. What are you hoping to achieve, given the chance as her successor?

I would definitely speak about self-reliance among young women and the youth at large. I come from a country where not everyone is lucky enough to get a job. In such cases, young men and women fall into crime, young women become victims of sexual abuse or prostitution, and, although one may argue that that is self-reliance, is it sustainable? Is it not escaping one fire to jump into another? It is important for me to represent every girl who has ever had a dream. I am spreading the message of possibilities when the world is yelling "Impossible!"

What has been the highlight of your term as Miss Lesotho?

My greatest highlight was finding myself through service to others. I discovered that the more I invest in myself, the more of me I can give and share.

The Miss Lesotho 2016 competition is around the corner, what words of wisdom would you like to share with hopefuls?

Pageantry is not all about pretty dresses and tiaras. It is hard work. Always be humble, and remember that, whatever the outcome, it is your life's journey. You are destined for greatness. Don't deny yourself that privilege.

In your experience, what is the Kovsie feeling referred to in the maxim “Only a Kovsie knows the feeling”?

It is the desire to want to be great, the motivation to live to my full potential.

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