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Opinion: The economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis

07 March 2022 | Story Sanet Madonsela | Photo supplied

SanetMadonsela_web read more — Sanet Madonsela is a PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies. She is also the Chairperson of the South African Association of Political Science's Emerging Scholars Research Committee and the Projects and Events Coordinator for the International Association for Political Science Students

Opinion article by Sanet Madonsela, PhD Candidate in the Centre for Gender and Africa Studies, University of the Free State.

On the 24 February 2022 the world woke up to the news of Russia announcing its’ “special military operation” to “demilitarise” and “deNazify” Ukraine. This announcement was followed by a sophisticated, all-out attack by land and air. As Russia began its invasion, the rest of the world watched in anguish, contemplating the unavoidable international political and economic implications.

There are competing views as to why Russia invaded Ukraine. Some argue that the attacks were based on Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, while others link the invasion to the Minsk agreements. The Minsk agreements are two treaties signed in 2014 and 2015 aimed at ending the war in Donbass. To provide a bit of context one needs to go back to 2014.

Resolution to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk

Moscow was angered that its candidate lost Ukraine’s presidential mantle in elections in 2014. This resulted in Donetsk and Luhansk announcing their autonomy from Kiev. In September of that year the government of Kiev and the separatist leaders agreed to a 12-point ceasefire called Minsk I. Despite the signing of the agreement, the fighting continued resulting in Russia, Ukraine and the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) signing Minsk II. The agreement called on Ukraine to control the state border, constitutional reform and decentralisation. Despite an election held in 2018 in the eastern regions, the US and the EU have refused to recognise the legitimacy of the vote, thus, violating the agreement. The OSCE has reported significant daily increases in ceasefire violations in the affected areas since February 2014. While the US is not a signatory, it has expressed the importance of implementing the agreement. Instead of accepting the existing agreement, Ukraine allegedly never implemented its provision thereby incensing Moscow as well as ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

On 16 February 2022, the Russian parliament adopted a resolution requesting Putin to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk. This agreement was signed on 21 February 2022 and followed by a request to deploy armed forces. Inevitably the conflict dynamics have escalated.

While some believe themselves to be immune to the conflict, economists warn that it will have far-reaching global consequences as armed conflict tends to disrupt supply chains and increase the price of food and gas. They predict a further increase in oil prices per barrel as Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter and the second largest exporter of crude oil. This is important as oil prices directly impact transportation, logistics, and air freights. On Thursday, 24 February, global oil prices past $105 per barrel warranting these predictions. In addition, Russia is the world’s largest supplier of palladium, a material used by automakers for catalytic converters and to clean car exhaust fumes, a delay which would affect auto production. It is worth noting that Ukraine is a major provider of wheat, corn, and barley. A lack of yellow maize, or even a slowdown in production, could result in an increase of meat prices.

Exports and sanctions

Combined, Russia and Ukraine export more than a third of the world’s wheat and 20% of its maize. They also account for 80% of global sunflower oil exports. They supply all major international buyers, as well as many emerging markets. In 2020, 90% of the African continent’s $4 billion agricultural imports from Russia were wheat and 6% sunflower oil. South Africa does not produce enough wheat and is heavily reliant on imports from these countries. It imported more than 30% of its wheat from these two countries over the past five years.

Western states have announced a coordinated series of sanctions aimed at Russian elites; however, critics warn that they may be ineffective as the country’s economy is large enough to absorb even the most severe sanctions. Its central bank has more than $630 billon in foreign reserves and gold. Its sovereign wealth accounts for an additional $190 billion. Russian debt accounts for a mere 20% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

The European Commission’s president, Ursula Von der Leyen, states that the bloc would target Russia’s energy sector by preventing European companies from providing Russia with the technology needed to upgrade its refineries. The US Department of Treasury has committed itself to prevent Russia’s state-owned Gazprom from raising money to fund its projects in the US. It is worth noting that Russia and Ukraine’s imports and exports to the US account for less than 1%, while Europe and Russia are interdependent. The EU needs Russian gas, while Russia needs the EU’s money. Some warn that the EU’s decision could be detrimental as it receives over a third of its natural gas from Russia. This is used for home heating and energy generation. These fears were intensified when the natural gas price in Europe increased by 62% on 24 February. It is believed that Russia has been preparing for economic isolation for years and that it could better absorb the sanctions than Europe’s ability to reduce its dependence on Russia’s oil, gas, and coal. Despite all these, Gazprom announced that its gas exports to Europe were continuing as normal.

While the world watches with bated breath as the conflict rages there are some promising signs. Russian and Ukrainian delegates are currently meeting on the border with Belarus to start a dialogue and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on Israel to serve as a mediator between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Let us pray that reason prevails.

News Archive

Power interruptions: Information for internal communication

2008-01-31

As part of the UFS’s commitment to address load shedding, the management would like to communicate the following:

The UFS mainly deals with the power interruptions by way of (a) the possible installation of equipment (e.g. generators) and (b) operational arrangements to ensure the functioning of the UFS in spite of power interruptions.

During the past week progress was made on both fronts. The information that follows resulted from a meeting of a task team of Physical Resources led by Mr Nico Janse van Rensburg, which took place on Monday 28 January (this task team naturally focuses on physical solutions) and a discussion by Exco on Wednesday 30 January 2008. Exco discussed the recommendations of the mentioned task team in respect of physical aspects, as well as the operational arrangements proposed by faculties.

Physical solutions

A Main Campus

1. New emergency power installations already approved:

Last week Exco gave its approval for the design and installation of emergency power equipment in all the large lecture-hall complexes to proceed immediately.

In all these cases

load surveys have been completed and a start has been made with the ordering of equipment and the process of appointing contractors. (Exco approved the adjustment of normal tender procedures in an attempt to expedite completion.)
generators with 20-30% more capacity than required for the current load are being ordered.
provision is being made for the connection of lights and at least one wall plug to the emergency power.
the expected construction time is 16 weeks (except in the case of the Flippie Groenewoud Building where it is 6 weeks).

The above-mentioned concerns lecture halls/ venues in the following buildings: Examination Centre, Flippie Groenewoud Building, Stabilis, Genmin and the Agriculture Building.

As far as the Agriculture Building is concerned, a larger generator (larger than required for lecture venues only) is being ordered in view of simultaneously providing essential research equipment (refrigerators, ovens, glasshouses) with emergency power within 16 weeks.

2. Investigation into the optimal utilisation of present emergency power installations

All the emergency power systems are being investigated on the basis of a list compiled in 2006 to determine whether excess capacity is available and whether it is possible to connect additional essential equipment or lights to it.

The electrical engineer warns as follows:
“Staff members must under no circumstances overload present emergency power points.

A typical example of this is a laboratory with 10 power points of which 2 points are emergency power outlets. Normally a fridge and freezer would, for example, be plugged into the two emergency power points, but now, with long load-shedding interruptions, a considerably larger number of appliances are being plugged into the power point by means of multi-sockets and extension cords. In the end the effect of such connections will accumulate at the emergency generator, which will then create a greater danger of it being overloaded and tripping, in other words, no emergency power will then be available.”

3. Requests and needs addressed directly to Physical Resources or reported to Exco via the line managers.

All the physical needs and requests addressed directly to Physical Resources or submitted to Exco via the line managers are being listed, classified and considered technically in view of their being discussed by the task team on Monday 11 February.
The information will (a) lead to recommendations to Exco regarding possible additional urgent emergency power installations, and (b) be used in the comprehensive investigation into the UFS’s preparedness for and management of long power interruptions.

Requests that can easily be complied with immediately and that fit into the general strategy will indeed be dealt with as soon as possible.

4. Purchase of loose-standing equipment: light, small, loose-standing generators, UPSs as solutions to/ aids during power interruptions

Exco approved that

a) faculties and support services accept responsibility themselves for the funding and purchase of loose equipment such as, for example battery lights, should they regard these as essential.
b) UPSs (uninterruptible power supplies) that faculties and support services wish to purchase to combat the detrimental effect of unexpected power interruptions on computer equipment) can (as at present) be purchased from own funds via Computer Services.
c) UPSs (uninterruptible power supplies) that faculties and support services wish to purchase to combat the detrimental effect of unexpected power interruptions on other types of equipment can normally be purchased from own funds with the consent of the line manager concerned.
Note: Please just make sure of the appropriateness of the equipment for a specific situation: it is not a power supply that can bridge a two-hour power interruption.)
d) small, loose-standing generators can be purchased from own funds via Physical Resources and installed under their supervision.
e) laptop computers can , where necessary, be purchased from own budgets. The availability of second-hand laptop computers must be taken into account.

B Vista

No major problems have been reported to date. The situation is being monitored and will be managed according to need. The same guidelines that apply to the Main Campus will naturally also apply to the Vista Campus.

C Qwaqwa

The situation is receiving attentions and solutions have already been found for most problems.

D General

1. All-inclusive project
A comprehensive investigation into the UFS’s preparedness for and management of long power interruptions will be launched as soon as possible. Available capacity will be utilised first to alleviate the immediate need. The needs assessment to which all faculties and support services have already contributed is already an important building block of the larger project.

2. Building and construction projects currently in the planning and implementation phase
The need for emergency power for projects such as the new Computer Laboratory is being investigated proactively and will be addressed in a suitable manner.

3. Liaison with Centlec
Attempts at direct and continuous liaison are continuing in an attempt to accommodate the unique needs of the UFS.

4. HESA meeting and liaison with other universities
A representative of the UFS will attend a meeting of all higher education institutions on 11 February. The meeting is being arranged by HESA (Higher Education South Africa) to discuss the implications for the sector, the management of risks and the sector’s response to government.

5. Internal communication
It is the intention to communicate internally after every meeting of the task team, which will take place on Mondays. Strategic Communication will assist in this regard.

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