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27 September 2022 | Story Dr Nitha Ramnath

2022 UFS Thought-Leader Series

PRESENTS

a panel discussion titled

A look into the Future of South Africa

Join online at livestream.ufs.ac.za

The University of the Free State is pleased to present the UFS Thought-Leader panel discussion titled, A look into the future of South Africa, which is part of the 2022 Thought-Leader Series. As a public higher-education institution in South Africa with a responsibility to contribute to public discourse, the University of the Free State (UFS) will be presenting the panel discussion in collaboration with the Free State Literature Festival and News24. This event will bring together expert thought leaders such as Moeletsi Mbeki, Pieter du Toit, and Dr Mareve Biljohn to share insights on the social, political, economic, and business landscape of South Africa and what it means for our future. The panel discussion will be facilitated by Prof Francis Petersen, Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS.

Panel discussion presented on 6 October 2022

South Africa is at a precipice – unemployment is at an all-time high, almost half the population receives income from the state every month, there is an absence of policy systems with no leadership in the country at all levels, and complete distrust exists between government and communities. The current national administration has no interest in creating an environment for entrepreneurship and growth. The expectation of investment to grow the economy is far-fetched. An increase in privatisation is taking place and gaining moment in areas such as security and provision of electricity, among others. As we approach the end of 2022 and reflect on the year that was, what opportunities are there to regain the confidence of our nation, establish much-needed credibility globally, and charter our country into a prosperous and successful terrain – where do we see ourselves? These are some of the aspects we look forward to discussing with the esteemed panel.

Date: Thursday 6 October 2022
Time: 10:00-12:00
Venue: Albert Wessels Auditorium, Bloemfontein Campus
RSVP: https://events.ufs.ac.za/e/ThoughtLeaderFutureofSouthAfrica

Refreshments will be served.

For further information, contact Alicia Pienaar at pienaaran1@ufs.ac.za.

Some of the topics discussed by leading experts in 2021 included, among others, reimagining universities for student success; corruption in South Africa – the endemic pandemic; South African politics and the local government elections; is South Africa falling apart: where to from here; predications for 2022; and why vaccinate? This year’s webinar series commenced on 31 May 2022 with the topic Crime in South Africa – who is to blame?  This was followed by webinars held in July and September, respectively titled Are our glasses half full or half empty? and What needs to be done to POWER up South Africa?

Facilitator:

Prof Francis Petersen
Rector and Vice-Chancellor, UFS

Panellists:

Moeletsi Mbeki
Deputy Chairperson
The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)

Pieter du Toit
Assistant Editor
In-depth news
News24 

Dr Mareve Biljohn
Head: Department of Public Administration and Management
University of the Free State

Bios of speakers:

Moeletsi Mbeki

Mr Moeletsi Mbeki is a political analyst, author, and entrepreneur. He is a director of several companies, Chairman of KMM Investments (Pty) Limited, KMM Review Publishing (Pty) Limited, MGM Capital Investments (Pty) Limited, and Executive Chairman of Pomegranate Media (Pty) Ltd. Mr Mbeki is the author of Architects of Poverty: Why African Capitalism Needs Changing. He edited Advocates for Change: How to Overcome Africa’s Challenges. Both books have been translated into Chinese. He recently co-authored A Manifesto for Social Change: How to Save South Africa with his niece, Dr Nobantu Mbeki. He is Deputy Chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) – an independent think tank based at the University of the Witwatersrand – and is a member of the council of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which is based in London. After returning to South Africa from exile in 1990, he was appointed Head of Communications for the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), and Media Consultant for the African National Congress. During most of the 1980s, he was a senior journalist for Zimbabwe Newspapers in Harare. As a result of the outstanding work that he did for the Zimbabwe Newspapers Features Department, he was awarded a Nieman Fellowship from Harvard University for the 1988-1989 academic years. Mbeki began his journalism career in London in 1979 as a contributor to the Africa, New African, and Africa Now magazines and the BBC Africa Service. He studied Building, Building Management, and Sociology in England, obtaining an MA degree in Sociology from the University of Warwick in 1982. He worked in the construction industry in the United Kingdom and in Tanzania during the 1970s.

Pieter du Toit

Pieter du Toit is Assistant Editor at News24, where he is Head of Investigative Journalism. He was previously a crime reporter, parliamentary correspondent, and news editor at Beeld and Netwerk24. He is the author of two books – Enemy of the People, which is about state capture – and The Stellenbosch Mafia. His third book, The ANC Billionaires, will be published next month.

Dr Mareve Biljohn

Maréve IM Biljohn is a senior lecturer and Head of the Department of Public Administration and Management at the University of the Free State. She holds a Doctor of Philosophy degree in Public Administration (University of the Free State), Master of Public Administration (Stellenbosch University), BPA (Honours) Public Administration (Stellenbosch University), BAdmin (Honours) Industrial Psychology (University of the Western Cape), and BAdmin (University of the Western Cape). Prior to her appointment at the University of the Free State, she worked for a district municipality in the Western Cape, South Africa. Her research interests and expertise are in the fields of social innovation in service delivery, citizen participation in local government service delivery, and citizen participation in the governance of local government service delivery. She has presented her research at several local and international research conferences and published her research in local and international journals. Her work includes, among others, publications on:

  • Social innovation as an alternative approach to South African local government service delivery.
  • Determinants for citizen and third-sector participation during social innovation in local government service delivery.
  • Considerations for South African local government for using SI in open and closed governance systems.

She has also authored and co-authored book chapters, titled ‘Leading self in South Africa’s VUCA local government environment’, and ‘Social innovation to enhance service delivery by local government’

News Archive

Inaugural lecture: Prof. Phillipe Burger
2007-11-26

 

Attending the lecture were, from the left: Prof. Tienie Crous (Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences at the UFS), Prof. Phillipe Burger (Departmental Chairperson of the Department of Economics at the UFS), and Prof. Frederick Fourie (Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS).
Photo: Stephen Collet

 
A summary of an inaugural lecture presented by Prof. Phillipe Burger on the topic: “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

South African business cycle shows reduction in volatility

Better monetary policy and improvements in the financial sector that place less liquidity constraints on individuals is one of the main reasons for the reduction in the volatility of the South African economy. The improvement in access to the financial sector also enables individuals to manage their debt better.

These are some of the findings in an analysis on the volatility of the South African business cycle done by Prof. Philippe Burger, Departmental Chairperson of the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Economics.

Prof. Burger delivered his inaugural lecture last night (22 November 2007) on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein on the topic “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

In his lecture, Prof. Burger emphasised a few key aspects of the South African business cycle and indicated how it changed during the periods 1960-1976, 1976-1994 en 1994-2006.

With the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an indicator of the business cycle, the analysis identified the variables that showed the highest correlation with the GDP. During the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006, these included durable consumption, manufacturing investment, private sector investment, as well as investment in machinery and non-residential buildings. Other variables that also show a high correlation with the GDP are imports, non-durable consumption, investment in the financial services sector, investment by general government, as well as investment in residential buildings.

Prof. Burger’s analysis also shows that changes in durable consumption, investment in the manufacturing sector, investment in the private sector, as well as investment in non-residential buildings preceded changes in the GDP. If changes in a variable such as durable consumption precede changes in the GDP, it is an indication that durable consumption is one of the drivers of the business cycle. The up or down swing of durable consumption may, in other words, just as well contribute to an up or down swing in the business cycle.

A surprising finding of the analysis is the particularly strong role durable consumption has played in the business cycle since 1994. This finding is especially surprising due to the fact that durable consumption only constitutes about 12% of the total household consumption.

A further surprising finding is the particularly small role exports have been playing since 1960 as a driver of the business cycle. In South Africa it is still generally accepted that exports are one of the most important drivers of the business cycle. It is generally accepted that, should the business cycles of South Africa’s most important trade partners show an upward phase; these partners will purchase more from South Africa. This increase in exports will contribute to the South African economy moving upward. Prof. Burger’s analyses shows, however, that exports have generally never fulfil this role.

Over and above the identification of the drivers of the South African business cycle, Prof. Burger’s analysis also investigated the volatility of the business cycle.

When the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006 are compared, the analysis shows that the volatility of the business cycle has reduced since 1994 with more than half. The reduction in volatility can be traced to the reduction in the volatility of household consumption (especially durables and services), as well as a reduction in the volatility of investment in machinery, non-residential buildings and transport equipment. The last three coincide with the general reduction in the volatility of investment in the manufacturing sector. Investment in sectors such as electricity and transport (not to be confused with investment in transport equipment by various sectors) which are strongly dominated by the government, did not contribute to the decrease in volatility.

In his analysis, Prof. Burger supplies reasons for the reduction in volatility. One of the explanations is the reduction in the shocks affecting the economy – especially in the South African context. Another explanation is the application of an improved monetary policy by the South African Reserve Bank since the mid 1990’s. A third explanation is the better access to liquidity and credit since the mid 1990’s, which enables the better management of household finance and the absorption of financial shocks.

A further reason which contributed to the reduction in volatility in countries such as the United States of America’s business cycle is better inventory management. While the volatility of inventory in South Africa has also reduced there is, according to Prof. Burger, little proof that better inventory management contributed to the reduction in volatility of the GDP.

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