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21 September 2022 | Story Dr Olivia Kunguma. | Photo Supplied
Dr Olivia Kunguma
Dr Olivia Kunguma, left, and Dr Mmaphaka Tau from DiMTEC.

Opinion article by Dr Olivia Kunguma, Disaster Management Training and Education Centre for Africa, University of the Free State, and Dr Mmaphaka Tau, Managing Director: Resilience 4 Development Institute (Pty) Ltd.


On 11 September 2022 a tailings dam wall collapsed at the abandoned Jagersfontein diamond mine in the Free State’s Kopanong Local Municipality, unleashing a thick grey sludge. 

The mine is in the Xhariep District Municipality, which is home to about 5 800 people. Following the dam burst, more than 400 people were affected, 51 houses were destroyed, and critical infrastructure was affected. 

The dam burst at the mine, which was established in the 1800s and to date has been owned by several mine moguls, led to serious devastation in the community. Within hours of the event the media had already dubbed it the “Jagersfontein disaster”. 

But the media cannot loosely report it as a “disaster”. It is not the appropriate classification according to the Disaster Management Act. There is a need for governing institutions and their legislation to be respected and recognised, as this will improve on governance. South Africa has good policies, but implementation is, in certain areas, lacking. Hereunder, we note that there is inappropriate use of terminology, which depicts the inadequate understanding of the disaster risk management function.

What is a disaster?

The DMA defines a “disaster” as a progressive, sudden, widespread, natural, or man-made occurrence that causes or threatens to cause death, disease or injury, damage to the environment, and disruption of life. According to the Act, it is of a magnitude that “exceeds the ability of those affected by the disaster to cope with its effects using only their resources”. At the international level, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) developed a terminology guide that aims to promote a common understanding and usage of disaster management concepts. It assists the authorities and the public (in this case, by “public” we refer mainly to the media) in educating the populace.

For the dam burst to be termed a “disaster”, several steps must be adhered to within South African jurisprudence: 

The National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) must first assess the magnitude and severity of the event, and then classify it as a local, provincial, or national disaster. This assessment also considers the provisions of Section 2 (1)(b) of the DMA, stating that the Act does not apply to an occurrence that can be dealt with in terms of other legislation. The rationale of the above is that the National Disaster Management Framework of 2005 (NDMF) provides that disaster management plans must be developed by relevant organs of states and other entities, who are the custodians of certain hazards or activities to manage disaster risks in their areas of legislative responsibility. For example, mining-related activities are the responsibility of the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy. This department’s mission is clear: to regulate, transform and promote the mineral and energy sectors. 

Since the event or incident occurred in a local sphere of government (Kopanong Local Municipality), it can then be classified as a local disaster subject to the satisfaction of the provisions of Section 2(1)(b). According to Section 23(4) of the DMA, an event can be classified as a “local disaster” if it affects a single local metropole, district, or municipality, and that entity can deal with the event effectively. The district municipality and the local municipality are responsible for the coordination and management of the local disaster. 

If the event has not been declared as a local state of disaster, other existing legislation, contingency arrangements, or by-laws can guide the management of the event in line with the appropriate contingency arrangements. Other government spheres and state organs can still assist with the management of the event in line with the applicable disaster risk management plans called for under the National Disaster Management Frameworks. 


Dr Mmaphaka Tau 

Of critical importance and aligned to the thrust of the District Development Model is the provision of Section 54 (4) of the DMA, which asserts that “irrespective of whether a local state of disaster has been declared in terms of section 55, a national or provincial organ of state, or another municipality or municipal organs of state are not precluded from providing assistance to a municipality to deal with a local disaster and its consequences”. 

In the same way, and on the strength of section 23 of the DMA, suppose the event has been classified as a local disaster: there are added benefits to dealing with the occurrence, especially in the face of a lack of robust disaster risk management plans and the dearth of disaster risk management implementation capacity both for coordination (by Disaster Management Centres) and mainstreaming (by relevant organs of state and other entities). In that case, the municipal council may declare a local state of disaster by notice in the provincial gazette (See Section 55 of the DMA).

The disaster declaration will then provide for measures such as, but not limited to:
• Available resources such as facilities, vehicles, and funding are released; 
• Personnel of the organs of the state are released to render emergency services; 
• Evacuation of the affected population to temporary shelters;
• The regulation of movement;
• The dissemination of information; 
• The maintenance and/or installation of temporary lines of communication; and 
• The suspension of or limiting of alcohol in disaster-stricken areas.
Therefore, until all the above processes have been followed, the Jagersfontein dam burst can only be termed a “disaster” without the ability to apply the above measures.

Who is responsible, and how can we move forward?

Jagersfontein Developments (Pty) Ltd owns the mine, implying that it should be their primary responsibility, as the asset owner, to actively contribute to the management of the occurrence of an incident. Even the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Gwede Mantashe, rightfully stated that the responsibility of compensating affected individuals would be placed on the mine owners. According to the Mine Health and Safety Act 29 of 1996 and its regulations, “the employer must take reasonable measures to ensure that no person is injured as a result of the failure of any dam wall”. It was reported that the company was warned of the tailings exceeding the authorised waste volumes. But the company did not attend to the warning. It is also assumed that the company is aware of the policies, legislation and standards they should adhere to, such as the Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management (GISTM), which strives to achieve the goals of zero harm to people and the environment, mine safety, and to mitigate catastrophic failure through tailings management. Fortunately, the company has taken full responsibility and has accepted liability. They have also refrained from calling Jagersfontein a ‘mine’, opting to call it a “processing facility”. Perhaps this also has legal implications. 

Nonetheless, besides the company taking full responsibility, the government must also play its part and make sure that policies, legislation, standards, etc. are implemented, and that there is full compliance. 
They cannot wait for a catastrophic event to occur and then start pointing fingers. This scenario calls for an embracing of the principles and practices of risk-informed development, which calls for an understanding of development that considers multi-faceted, dynamic, interdependent, transboundary, simultaneous, and systemic risks. It thus describes a shift in mindset – across sectors and stakeholders – from managing single hazards to incorporating existing and future risks in all development processes from the outset, and therefore choosing development pathways that prevent the creation of risks. The Jagersfontein case study is a classic case of an ignored Risk Informed Development (RID) approach, which is gravely regrettable.

The limited understanding of the various stakeholders’ roles and responsibilities, and the misinterpretation of important terminology, call for robust capacity development programmes driven by the National Disaster Management Centre in collaboration with Provincial and Municipal Disaster Management Centres. There is also a palpable need for a firm implementation of Priority 1 (Understanding Disaster Risk) of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), which states that policies and practices for disaster management should be based on an understanding of risks in all dimensions of vulnerability, capacity, exposure of persons and assets, hazard characteristics, and the environment. 

News Archive

UFS alumnus receives PhD in Statistics from the University of Oxford
2016-06-03

Description: DW Bester  Tags: DW Bester

In May of this year, DW Bester obtained
a DPhil in Statistics at the University of
Oxford.
Photo: Supplied

On 14 May this year, Dr DW Bester received a DPhil in Statistics from the University of Oxford. The entire ceremony, which was held in the Sheldonian Theatre in Oxford, was conducted in Latin, as has been the case for the past 800 years.

Dr Bester completed his undergraduate studies and his honours degree at the University of the Free State (UFS). “At first, I was only planning to study for a master’s degree, but was privileged to get an opportunity to do a PhD as well. I didn’t think twice!” he says.

Studies at the University of Oxford


Universities in England do not require a master’s degree for PhD studies. With the help of Prof Max Finkelstein from the UFS Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, Dr Bester registered for the DPhil programme in Statistics directly after his honours studies.

“The title of my thesis was: Joint survival models: A Bayesian investigation of longitudinal volatility. It dealt with a problem in the medical field to determine the cause of stroke risk: is it the absolute level of blood pressure, or the volatility thereof? The analysis of this question led to interesting models which needed advanced application techniques. I had to study these techniques and write programmes for their application.

Although Dr Bester is working currently as the technical head of a company that calculates insurance for power stations, satellites, rockets, and cyber risks, he would like to continue working with his Oxford supervisor in future to make the techniques they have developed more accessible for researchers outside of the field of statistics.
 
“Studying at Oxford requires hard work, perseverance, and a lot of luck. Luck plays a big role, since there are no guarantees that hard work will ensure you a spot in one of the top universities.

Regarding his studies at Oxford, Dr Bester thinks back on his exposure to the GNU/Linux operating system, and free software. “I have seen how valuable this is for analyses in practice. I also had the privilege of meeting the father of free software, Richard Stallman,” Dr Bester says.

2011 Rhodes Scholar

He was elected as Rhodes Scholar in 2011. According to Dr Bester, who has been interested in Mathematics since high school, the Rhodes scholarship was something of a fluke. He applied for the Rhodes scholarship on the recommendation of Prof Robert Schall of the Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science.

Role of the UFS in his successes


In addition to the continued support from the team of passionate professors and lecturers at the UFS, the actuarial degree at the UFS is fraught with statistics. Emphasis is also placed on Bayesian statistics. This was crucial to his studies at Oxford. According to Dr Bester, this topic is emphasised strongly in the international statistics community.

Dr Bester regards the work done by two of his lecturers, Michael von Maltitz and Sean van der Merwe, among his highlights at the UFS. Since our first year, they have created an atmosphere of camaraderie among the students. “I think this contributed to the success of everybody. They also make an effort to present topics outside of the syllabus regularly,” says Bester.

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