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05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons
Prof Abdon Atangana
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS) and a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. It is for this reason he introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves.

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication. 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
 
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana. 

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.  

News Archive

Sport results: Tennis, Netball, badminton, athletics
2009-05-05

During the Mega-intervarsity Tournament held at Sun City last week, both the University of the Free State’s (UFS) men’s and women’s tennis teams beat their opponents. The Kovsies women’s team beat the Pukke 15-0, Tukkies 15-1 and Maties 12-5.

The Kovsies men’s team beat their respective opponents as follows: Maties A 12-6, Maties B 15-0, Pukke A 9-7, Tukkies A 14-1 and Pukke B 15-0.

Janine de Kock from KovsieSport said that she was satisfied with these achievements. “For the past two years the women have won the University Sports South Africa (USSA) tournament and now again this tournament. What makes this achievement special is the fact that it was the first tournament that four of the women’s team members played for the UFS.”

“I am also very satisfied with the achievements of the men’s team. They ended sixth in last year’s USSA tournament. This year, at a tournament where the top four universities in terms of tennis were present, they won,” said Janine.
Rensia Henning in action during the Mega-intervarsity Tournament that took place at Sun City last week.
Photos: Jeanine de Kok
 
Netball: Hard work gets rewarded - (April 2009)

Three Kovsies were selected from the South African National Netball team to the Senior Top 12 Team that will represent South Africa at the SPAR Challenge, a three nation’s test series against Botswana and Fiji. These matches will take place towards the end of May in Pretoria.

The three students are Elzet Engelbrecht, Maryka Holtzhausen, en Adele Niemand.


Kovsie students compete at badminton championships

One former student from the University of the Free State (UFS) Chris Dednam, and one current Kovsie student Annari Viljoen are included in the National Badminton Team that represented South Africa from 17 to 24 April 2009 at the All Africa Badminton Championships in Nairobi, Kenya. They also participated in the Kenya International Championships from 25 to 27 April 2009.

Chris Dednam and Annari Viljoen and with them Roelof Dednam, also a former Kovsie student, were included in the team that will participate at the Sudirman Cup in Guangzhou, China. The Sudirman Cup that will take place from 10 to 17 May 2009 is the world mixed team badminton championship and takes place every two years.

Kovsie athletes win medals

Kovsie athletes excelled at the South African Students Athletics Championships (USSA) that was held in Stellenbosch by winning a total of 15 medals.

The medal winners are:
Gold: Thuso Mpuang for the 200m, Johan Cronjè for the 1 500m, Maryna Swanepoel for the half marathon and Marizette Badenhorst for hammer throw.
Silver: Thuso Mpuang for the 100m, Johan Cronjè for the 5 000m, Charles le Roux for triple jump, Ronè Reynecke for the 800m, and Abongile Lerotholi for 1 500m.
Bronze: Kagisho Kumbane for 100m and 200m, Boy Soke for half marathon, Charles le Roux for long jump, Thandi Malindi for the 3 000m steeple chase, and Marike Steyn for triple jump.

In the team competition the Kovsie men’s team received third place and the women’s team fourth place.
 

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