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Prof Abdon Atangana
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS) and a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. It is for this reason he introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves.

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication. 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
 
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana. 

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.  

News Archive

A position statement by the School of Medicine, UFS, regarding the crisis in health care in the Free State
2009-05-27

The executive management of the School of Medicine (SOM) at the University of the Free State (UFS) and its senior members wish to express their grave concern at the way the financial crisis in the Free State has negatively impacted on the provision of health care to the population. The unavailability of goods and services at every level of care has become so severely compromised that the staff of the SOM can no longer remain silent on this issue. By remaining silent it may be construed that we are either indifferent to, or even accepting the situation. Neither is true. The SOM can in no way condone, sanction or accept the current situation of health care in the Free State.

Other concerns expressed by the SOM include:

  • Medical services have been severely compromised due to the disintegrating primary health care system in the FS. This has resulted in patients who were in need of more advanced levels of medical care not being referred appropriately or timeously to level two hospitals and from there for tertiary care. Inpatient as well as outpatient numbers are steadily declining and the tendency now is to fill fewer beds with critically ill or terminally ill patients. It is also becoming increasingly difficult to find suitable patients for training and examination purposes.
     
  • It becomes more difficult to attract and retain experienced and suitably qualified medical specialists interested in an academic career, due to the inability to provide prospective career opportunities. This is particularly the case in the surgical disciplines.
     
  • It is also becoming more difficult to attract and appoint highly qualified registrars (future specialists) since the reputation of this SOM has been compromised by the negative publicity created by the financial difficulties of the FSDoH. Registrars form the backbone of the clinical work force in all teaching hospitals. If vacant posts cannot be filled in time service provision, as well as undergraduate teaching are severely jeopardised.
     
  • As a direct consequence of the rationing of health care, fewer surgical procedures are being performed. The point may soon be reached where registrars in the surgical disciplines may not get sufficient hands-on experience to allow them to qualify within the required time frame.
     
  • Non-payment of accounts to service providers and suppliers including the National Health Laboratory Services (NHLS), maintenance contracts and industry will severely compromises health care and future loyalty, goodwill and provision of critical services.
     
  • The dwindling number of qualified and experienced nurses in the public (and private) health care sector is an ongoing unresolved issue. Despite the fact that primary health care is mainly nurse-driven, nursing colleges were closed during the previous decade. These colleges must now be re-commissioned at high cost adding to the financial burden.
     
  • The morale of health care workers at all levels of health care has reached an all-time low
     
  • It is becoming increasingly difficult to conduct meaningful research in all disciplines due to staff shortages and lack of funding.

See attachment for the full statement on by the School of Medicine, regarding the crisis in health care in the Free State.

Media Release
Issued by: Mangaliso Radebe
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2828
Cell: 078 460 3320
E-mail: radebemt.stg@ufs.ac.za
26 May 2009
 

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