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05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons
Prof Abdon Atangana
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS) and a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. It is for this reason he introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves.

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication. 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
 
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana. 

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.  

News Archive

Multidisciplinary conference on TB control
2003-09-22

Theme: Tuberculosis control: a multidisciplinary approach to research, policy and practice Venue: CR Swart Auditorium, University of the Free State Campus, Bloemfontein Date: 11 and 12 November 2003 Time: 11 November, 19:00-20:30 AND 12 November 08:30-17:00

Tuesday, 11 November - 19:00-20:30 (registration from 18:30) and Wednesday, 12 November - 08:30-17:00 (registration from 07:30)

The Honourable MEC for Health in the Free State will officially open the Conference on the evening of 11 November, while Prof Frederick Fourie (Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the University of the Free State) will attend to the welcoming. In addition, Prof Françoise Portaels (Institute of Tropical Medicine, Belgium) and Dr Refiloe Matji (National Department of Health, South Africa) will respectively present a global and a South African perspective on TB. The majority of the presentations will follow on 12 November.

Main thrust of Conference

The main thrust of the Conference is to disseminate both research results and policy/managerial matters relevant to TB and TB control, and to facilitate discourse among researchers and health policy makers/managers/practitioners in the field of TB control. Presenters of papers, as well as delegates are, therefore, drawn from both academic/research institutions, and from health service sectors involved in TB control in all provinces and in neighbouring countries.

Topics of presentations

A variety of topics will be dealt with during presentations, such as: New challenges in the global control of MDR-TB New strategies and policies on MDR-TB in South Africa A South African perspective on TB control A provincial perspective on implementing the national TB control policy

The role of the public district hospital in TB control Tuberculosis control through DOTS Case detection strategies

TB in children Hospital to clinic: is this the missing link? Patient compliance with DOT for TB Challenges for effective health communications in a multicultural context

The economics of TB Frequency of multiple infections with M. tuberculosis in pulmonary TB patients HIV/AIDS and TB, etc.

Speakers

Among the speakers will be Dr Victor Litlhakanyane (Head of Health: Free State); Prof Françoise Portaels and Dr Leen Rigouts (Institute of Tropical Medicine, Belgium); Dr Reliloe Matji (Director: NTBC Programme); Ntsiki Jolingana (Director: HIV, AIDS, TB and Communicable Diseases, Free State) and Annatjie Peters (Free State TB Coordinator); Dr Karin Weyer (Medical Research Council); Profs Herman Meulemans, Diana De Graeve, Luc Pauwels and Christiane Timmerman (University of Anwerp, Belgium); Dr Lara Fairall (UCT Lung Institute, University of Cape Town); Prof Frikkie Booysen (Department of Economics, University of the Free State); Christo Heunis, Ega Janse van Rensburg-Bonthuyzen, Zacheus Matebesi and Kobus Meyer (CHSR&D); Dr Mary Ednington (School of Public Health, Wits); Dr Carmen Báez and Sabine Verkuijl (ISDS); Anneke Van der Spoel-Van Dijk (Medical Microbiology, University of the Free State).

Costs

There will be no registration fees. However, delegates are expected to arrange their own transport and accommodation, or arrange for sponsorships themselves.

Contact details in case of inquiries and confirmation:

Postal Address: The Director, CHSR&D, PO Box 339, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, 9300 Fax: 051 448 0370 Tel: 051 401 2181 OR 051 401 3256 E-mail: vrensh@mail.ufs.ac.za (Dingie van Rensburg) OR neljc@mail.ufs.ac.za (Ohna Nel)

PLEASE, CONFIRM YOUR ATTENDANCE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, BUT AT THE LATEST BEFORE 25 OCTOBER 2003 ? BY TELEPHONE, FAX OR E-MAIL.

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