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05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons
Prof Abdon Atangana
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS) and a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. It is for this reason he introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves.

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication. 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
 
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana. 

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.  

News Archive

"Service" needs to return to public service
2010-09-14

At the memorial lecture were, from the left, front: Chris Hendriks, Proff. Liezel Lues, Chris Thornhill and Lyndon du Plessis; middle: Prof. Hendri Kroukamp, Mss Alet Fouche, Lizette Pretorius; and back: Proff. Koos Bekker and Moses Sindane.
– Photo: Stephen Collett.

There is a serious need for the concept of “service” to be reintroduced to the public service. In addition to this, public servants need to behave ethically and honestly if the public service were to achieve its main aim of service delivery to South African citizens and thereby also restore the trust of citizens in the state.

This was the central theme of the JN Boshoff Commemorative Lecture hosted by the Department of Public Administration and Management at the University of the Free State UFS). The lecture by Prof. Chris Thornhill, emeritus professor of Public Administration and Management at the University of Pretoria, focused on “Administrative and Governmental Challenges: Lessons from the Past”. He drew pertinent parallels with the administrative and governmental practices during the times of Pres. JN Boshoff, second president of the Orange Free State in 1855, and the challenges faced in this regard by the current government and public service.

Prof. Thornhill highlighted important aspects such as globalisation, the environment, public service and democratic government in his presentation.
He said the borders between countries have all but vanished and governments therefore have to carefully consider the effects of globalisation on its domestic affairs. The strength of a country’s currency, for example, was not only determined by how that country viewed or perceived it, but also by the international community’s perception of that country’s political and economic stability. This, in turn, could have serious implications for that country’s investment and economic prospects.

Governments are compelled to attend to the utilisation of its natural resources as these resources are finite and therefore irreplaceable. Policy interventions have to be introduced to decrease or regulate the use of certain natural resources or alternative measures need to be introduced. The example of bio-fuel production in various countries was highlighted.

He said the South African public service is characterised by three debilitating factors, namely the prevalence of corruption, the interference of politicians in administrative functions and a lack of appropriate skills and therefore a lack of commitment on the part of officials. In the municipal sector, for example, 46% of municipal managers have less than one year’s experience and this mainly occurs because of the practice of deployment (the appointment of a person based on political affiliation). An amendment to the Local Government: Municipal Systems Act is currently under consideration, in terms of which municipal managers will be disallowed to hold party political positions simultaneously.

According to Prof. Thornhill this is a step in the right direction, but more needs to be done to neutralise the impact of these debilitating factors in order to restore the credibility of the public service.

On democratic government Prof. Thornhill said the fact that the majority of a country’s citizens elect a political party to power does not automatically make the government capable of governing effectively and efficiently. It is therefore important for the rulers to understand their governing role within a democratic context, but more importantly to act accordingly. It is also important not to centralise power unduly as this could be a serious threat to accountable government. The 17th amendment to the Constitution, 1996, currently under consideration, and in terms of which national and provincial government will be allowed to intervene in local government matters, was highlighted as a case in point.

Prof. Thornhill said it was essential for those involved to sincerely and honestly and ethically deal with the above matters for the public service to overcome current challenges.
 

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