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Prof Abdon Atangana develops new concept to test Ebola waves

05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact.

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana.

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact.

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.

News Archive

Honorary doctorate to Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu attracts wide attention

2011-01-27

Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu after receiving his honorary doctorate in Theology at the UFS.
- Photo: Hannes Pieterse

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The University of the Free State (UFS) awarded an honorary doctorate to Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu on Thursday, 27 January 2011. The graduation ceremony, which was attended by guests from across the country marks a milestone in the history of the university.

Amongst the guests were the ambassador of the USA to South Africa, Mr Donald Gips; the British High Commissioner to South Africa, Dr Nicola Brewer; members of the local government; Ms Barbara Hogan, former Minister of Public Works and the daughters of Bram Fischer, Ruth Fischer-Rice and Ilse Fischer-Wilson. Friends of Dr Tutu, Dr Ahmed Kathrada, Ms Barbara Hogan and Dr Allan and Ms Elna Boesak also attended the occasion.

The UFS also received a message of congratulations from the Deputy President of South Africa, Mr Kgalema Motlanthe. “The choice to honour this exemplar of virtue to which most of the world still look for direction as it buckles under social, political and economic difficulties is laudable in all respects,” he said.

Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS, said: “We honour a great son of South Africa who made a tremendous contribution to peace, reconciliation and justice in South Africa and in the world.

“There were times when few of us thought apartheid would end in our lifetime, yet you stood as a rock reassuring us, not about a black future, but about our common future. For this reason, Arch, we would not miss this opportunity to honour you for any reason whatsoever.

“You, Sir, are a Jew among Muslims, a Christian among Hindus, a Catholic among Anglicans, a bridge-builder among all of us. That is why we love you; because you look deeper and see further than all of us.”

According to Prof. Francois Tolmie, Dean of the UFS’s Faculty of Theology, the university honours Dr Tutu for his contribution as theologian – through his teaching and the books he wrote – as well as for the role he played in bringing about reconciliation in South Africa as well as in the rest of the world. The university also honours Dr Tutu as a moral and spiritual leader who never sacrificed his integrity as a Christian.

Apart from being a church leader and a leading world figure, Dr Tutu is the author of several books and also held a number of teaching posts at various tertiary institutions.

In 1984, he received the Nobel Peace Prize for his role as a unifying leader figure in the campaign to abolish apartheid in South Africa. A further highlight in his career was his election as Archbishop of Cape Town in 1986. He was the first black African to serve in this position, which placed him at the head of the Anglican Church in South Africa.

Many South Africans also remember the role he played when President Nelson Mandela appointed him in December 1995 to chair the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, which was established to investigate human rights violations during the apartheid era. The Archbishop guided the nation in the process of choosing forgiveness over revenge and in so doing set a historic international precedent.

In 1996, he retired as Archbishop of Cape Town but continues to speak out in favour of human rights, equality and social justice in South Africa and throughout the world.

In August 2009, President Barack Obama presented him with the Medal of Freedom, the United States of America’s highest civilian honour. Dr Desmond Tutu is recognised around the world as a moral leader committed to the human rights of all people.

Today he is chairman of The Elders, a group of world leaders who, in view of their integrity and leadership, are equipped to deal with some of the world’s most pressing problems.

Prof. Tolmie says: “It is often asked how Dr Tutu could have achieved all this in the span of one lifetime. Some people would refer to his warm personality or his humanness, his deep sense of humility or his wonderful sense of humour. Probing a little deeper, however, one is struck by Dr Tutu’s deep relationship with God. He is known as a man of faith, a man of prayer. He lives his life coram Deo, in the presence of God.”

Dr Tutu also lead the introduction ceremony of the UFS’s International Institute for Studies in Race, Reconciliation and Social Justice.

Media Release
27 January 2011
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication (actg)
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za

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