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05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons
Prof Abdon Atangana
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS) and a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. It is for this reason he introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves.

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication. 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
 
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana. 

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.  

News Archive

Internationally acclaimed academic applauded on Africa Day
2011-06-02

 
 Prof. Ali Mazrui, an internationally acclaimed and renowned academic.

One of the world’s top academics was given a warm welcome in the rather cold Free State recently.

Prof. Ali Mazrui, an internationally acclaimed and renowned academic, visited us as part of our Africa Day celebrations as arranged by the Centre for Africa Studies. He delivered a keynote address, entitled ‘Pro-democracy uprisings in an African experience: from Sharpeville to Benghazi.’

A festive atmosphere and the sound of drums welcomed this intellectual giant as well as other delegates upon their arrival at the CR Swart Auditorium on our Bloemfontein Campus. Some of the delegates who attended the Africa Day Celebrations, included: Mr Tom Amolo, High Commissioner from the Republic of Kenya; Mr Dan Kgothule, MEC of Arts and Culture in the province; Prof. Jeff and Dr Carla Ramsdell, visitors from America; Dr Allan Boesak and Prof. Nicky Morgan, Vice-Rector: Operations.

Prof. Frederick Fourie, former Vice-Chancellor and Rector of our university, also attended the celebrations, as did some scholars from neighboring schools.

Welcoming Prof. Mazrui, Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector of our university, quipped that he was relieved the world had not ended the previous weekend as was predicted, because he was looking forward to listening to such a renowned intellectual.

Prof. Lucius Botes, Dean of Humanities, followed Prof. Jansen at the podium. He said the ability to go from following a bridging course to being one of the top 100 intellectuals in the world, indeed distinguishes Prof. Mazrui as an exceptional academic. This intellectual is, among others, an Albert Luthuli Professor at the University of Jos, Nigeria and Andrew D. Professor Emeritus and Senior Scholar in Africana Studies at Cornell University.

In his introduction, Prof. Mazrui said he feels honored and flattered by this opportunity. He proceeded by referring to the history of Africa Day and added that he would rather prefer an Africa Week to an Africa Day to ensure that everybody has the opportunity to celebrate the continent.

He sang the praises of South Africa, as almost every other African country which attained liberation from European colonial rule in the 20th century, has been unable to maintain its democratic order beyond its first decade of independence.

“The Republic of South Africa, on the other hand, liberated Nelson Mandela in 1990, held its first democratic election in 1994, and already has its third president. Nearly two decades after Apartheid, South Africa has not outlawed opposition parties, or experienced a military coup, or permitted the Head of State to govern the country as a dictator.”

In his speech he compared the uprisings in Sharpeville during 1960 and Soweto during 1976 with the more recent pro-democracy uprisings in North Africa, based on the role that weapons and the lack thereof, as well as the youth and women played in the respective cases.

He concluded by saying the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt have already resulted in ousting dictators who had been entrenched in power for decades, adding that in Libya a third dictator’s future is on the line. “Never in the history of the Arabs have there been so many popular uprisings which seem to be inspired neither by Islam nor by anti-imperialism, but in the quest for liberal reforms. Half a century earlier in Sharpeville and Soweto, South Africans experienced their own political awakening.”

Prof. Kwandiwe Kondlo, Director of the Centre for Africa Studies, closed the event with a word of thanks to the American academic and his wife, guests and attendees. He said discussions prior to the event revealed that more research has to be done regarding gender issues on the continent.

Prof. Mazrui also participated in conversations at the institute and a media briefing which was hosted earlier the day.

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