Latest News Archive

Please select Category, Year, and then Month to display items
Previous Archive
05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons
Prof Abdon Atangana
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS) and a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. It is for this reason he introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves.

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication. 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
 
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana. 

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.  

News Archive

Thakaneng bridge: Valentines Promotions
2009-02-13

Thakaneng bridge: Valentines Promotions

Thakaneng bridge: Valentines Promotions - 13 February. Special discount! Prizes to be won!

  1. TRÄUMEREI

Enige twee ontbyte kry `n glasie sap en koffie gratis.
Enige middagete kry `n trammazini of glas huiswyn gratis.

Any two breakfasts get a free juice and coffee.
A free glass of wine or a trammazini with any lunch.

  1. VARSITY INFORMATION & TECHNOLOGY

Spend R1000.00 or more and stand a chance to win an Ipod Shuffle.
More specials in store.

Spandeer R1000.00 of meer en staan `n kans om `n Ipod Shuffle te wen.
Daar sal ook ander spesiale aanbiedinge in die winkel wees.

  1. VETKOEK FACTORY

Heart shaped vetkoek with delicious fillings and get a free heart shaped chocolate with every vetkoek.

Kom geniet `n hartvormige vetkoek met `n smaaklike vulsel en kry `n gratis hartvormige sjokolade.

  1. VARSITY HAIR STUDIO

Make Friday the 13th your lucky day at VARSITY HAIR STUDIO.
Amazing discounts will be given away!

Maak Vrydag die 13de jou gelukkige dag by VARSITY HAIR STUDIO.
Groot afslag op byna alles.

  1. KOVSIE PRIVAAT AKKOMMODASIE

Alle bestaande klante kom neem deel aan `n gelukstrekking en staan `n kans om `n etebewys ter waarde van R400.00 te wen.

All existing clients can enter into a lucky draw and stand a chance to win a free meal worth R400.00.

  1. XEROX

Kom neem deel aan `n “lucky draw” en wen een van verskeie geskenke.
Enter the lucky draw and win one of many prizes.

  1. MELLIN

LEVI, POLO en LUXION-KUKA promosies. Gratis geskenke wannneer `n raam gekoop word.
LEVI, POLO and LUXION-KUKA promotions. A free gift with any frame bought.

8. FRIENDLY SEVEN ELEVEN
Lots of in-store give-aways.
Vele weggee geskenke in die winkel. Besoek ons gerus.

9. RUSH HOUR
Kom prik `n ballon en wen een van vele pryse, waaronder T-hemde, `n koek, teddiebeer of dalk ‘n mini- make over.
Ons maak ook `n plan vir lekker musiek op die brug!

Win a cake, T-shirt ,a teddy bear or a mini make over in our burst a balloon competition.

10.MAMA`S KITCHEN
Kom neem deel aan `n gelukstrekking en wen `n piekniekmandjie vir twee.
`n Gratis geskenkie vir die eerste 100 klante.

Enter the lucky draw and stand a chance to win a picnic hamper for two.
The first 100 clients will receive a gift.

11. ROASTERS
Kom koop een chip twister en kry een gratis.
Buy ` chip twister and get one for free.

12 DIE DELI

Koop een groot ontbyt en kry `n damesontbyt gratis.
Kry skyfies gratis saam met enige burger.

Buy a breakfast and get a ladies breakfast free.
Free chips with any burger.

  1. NASHUA MOBILE

Buy airtime for R10.00 or more and stand a chance to win airtime worth R55.00
Koop lugtyd van R10.00 of meer en staan `n kans om lugtyd ter waarde van R55.00 te wen.

  1. VAN SCHAIK BOEKHANDEL

Alle aankope op 13 Februarie kwalifiseer vir `n gelukstrekking op die 14de Februarie en staan `n kans om `n geskenk te wen waaronder wetenskaplike sakrekenaars, memory sticks en penstelle.

All clients who buy something on 13 February 2009 may enter a lucky draw and may win gifts like pen sets, scientific calculator or a memory stick on 14 February 2009.

  1. ROCKSTARS

Kom koop `n T-hemp en staan `n kans om `n geskenk te wen.

Buy a T-shirt and stand a chance to win a prize

 

We use cookies to make interactions with our websites and services easy and meaningful. To better understand how they are used, read more about the UFS cookie policy. By continuing to use this site you are giving us your consent to do this.

Accept