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05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons
Prof Abdon Atangana
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS) and a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. It is for this reason he introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves.

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication. 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
 
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana. 

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.  

News Archive

Judge Ian van der Merwe unanimously re-elected as Chairperson of the UFS Council
2012-11-29

 
Judge Ian van der Merwe
Photo: Rian Horn
29 November 2012

The Council of the University of the Free State (UFS) unanimously re-elected Judge Ian van der Merwe as its Chairperson for the next three years at its last meeting for this year on Friday, 16 November 2012.

Judge Van der Merwe is a Judge of the Free State High Court. He is an alumnus of the UFS and has been a member of the Council since 9 March 2007.

In accepting his appointment, Judge Van der Merwe said that he was honoured and humbled to lead a Council of this calibre for a second term. “The Council is setting a good example of what good governance at a higher education institution should look like. Meetings are conducted in good spirit and decisions made in the best interest of the university,” he said.

“Having sat on councils of many universities before, I can say with great surety that, on balance of expertise and backgrounds, the UFS has one of the most effective councils in the country and, to have a Chairperson of Judge Van der Merwe’s stature, is a privilege. His leadership and guidance is greatly appreciated,” said Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector.

Mr Edward Kieswetter, Group CEO and Executive Director of Alexander Forbes and Deputy Chairperson of the UFS Council, and Mr Jonathan Crowther (former editor of Volksblad) have been re-elected for a further term of four years in the category: "Appointed by the Council".

External Council members were given a tour of the Bloemfontein Campus after the meeting, followed by an induction session for new council members.

New Council members who joined this year are: 

Derek Foster, in the category appointed by the Council
Ruben Gouws, elected by the non-academic staff
Lorraine Kriek, elected by the Alumni
Themba Mmabi, representative of the Minister of Higher
Education and Training
Sabelo Khumalo, SRC President, Qwaqwa Campus
William Clayton, SRC President, Bloemfontein Campus
Suraya Jawodeen, representative of the Minister of Higher
Education and Training
Mr Dan Mosia, representative of the Minister of Higher Education and Training
 

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