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Prof Abdon Atangana develops new concept to test Ebola waves

05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact.

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana.

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact.

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.

News Archive

New challenges for animal science discussed

2006-04-04

Some of the guests attending the congress were from the left Dr Heinz Meissner (honorary president of the South African Society for Animal Science (SASAS) and senior manager at the Animal Production Institute of the Agricultural Research Council), Mr Paul Bevan (President of SASAS) and Prof Magda Fourie (Vice-Rector: Academic Planning at the UFS).
Photo: Lacea Loader

New challenges for animal science discussed

The South African Society for Animal Science (SASAS) is presenting its 41st Congress at the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Main Campus in Bloemfontein.

The congress started yesterday and will run until Thursday 6 April 2006. The theme is New challenges for the animal science industries.

It is one of the largest congresses in the 45 years since SASAS was founded in 1961. Among the delegates 12 African countries are represented, with the biggest delegation from Kenya. Delegates are also from the United States of America, Iran, Turkey, Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal and African countries like Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana.

“Many of our members play an important role in the training of animal scientists at universities. The congress is specifically industry orientated so that scientists can interact with farmers through the respective producer organisations,” said Prof HO de Waal, Chairperson of the organising committee and lecturer at the UFS Department of Animal, Wildlife and Grassland Sciences.

According to Dr Heinz Meissner, honorary president of SASAS and a senior manager at the Animal Production Institute of the Agricultural Research Council, the National Livestock Strategy (NLS) Plan clarifies the role and responsibility of the livestock sector.

“Through this strategy we need to focus on enhancing equitable access and participation in livestock agriculture, improve global competitiveness and profitability of the livestock sector and ensure that the ventures implemented do not over utilise our resources,” said Dr Meissner.

In her welcoming address, Prof Magda Fourie, Vice-Rector: Academic Planning at the UFS highlighted the related challenges that the UFS will be focusing on specifically over the next five years. “We have identified five strategic clusters that represent broad areas of excellence in research and post-graduate education. Two of these are food production, quality and safety for Africa and sustainable development,” she said.

“The food safety and security cluster will focus on the production of food in all its varieties within the African context, encompassing the entire value chain – from production to consumption and nutrition related issues. This would include a strong emphasis on sustainable production systems,” she said.

According to Prof Fourie the rural development cluster will engage in questions around the role of higher education in sustainable development. “One of the focus areas in this strategic cluster pertains to sustainable livelihoods. It refers to a way of approaching development that incorporates all aspects of human livelihoods and means by which people obtain them,” she said.

Prof Fourie said that the challenges we are facing such as food production can only be effectively addressed through collaborative efforts. “That is why it is important that collaboration takes place between different scientific disciplines, researchers, institutions and countries who are confronted with similar difficulties,” she said.

According to Prof de Waal the congress will give key role players a unique opportunity to present a profile of what they perceive an animal scientist should be and state their specific requirement regarding the animal sciences and its applications.

“In this way we can determine what the industry’s needs are and we can re-align our curriculum to suit these needs,” said Prof de Waal.

During the next two days, various areas of interest will be discussed. This includes ruminant and monogastric nutrition, animal physiology, beef, dairy, sheep and ostrich breeding and sustainable farming covering the range from commercial to the small-scale farming level.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
4 April 2006

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