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05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons
Prof Abdon Atangana
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS) and a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. It is for this reason he introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves.

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication. 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
 
Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana. 

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact. 

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.  

News Archive

New SRC: Records of support and a victory for women
2014-09-04


Ms Mosa Leteane and Ms Louzanne Coetzee
Photo: Johan Roux

While campuses across South Africa regularly report falling voter turnout in campus elections of student representatives, the University of the Free State, in its recently completed SRC elections, registered record levels of support across our campuses with a total voter turnout of 44%. At the Bloemfontein Campus 34,4% of students voted (5052 votes) and 53,3% (1583 votes) at the Qwaqwa Campus.

Also, for the first time under the new SRC constitution, students elected a woman to lead the student body – Ms Mosa Leteane was elected as President. Another first was the election of a blind woman to the SRC – Ms Louzanne Coetzee. She will be responsible for student accessibility of our Bloemfontein SRC. This marks a victory for women in student governance.

Mr Tulasizwe Sithole was elected as the President of the SRC at our Qwaqwa Campus.

The election of Ms Leteane as President underscores the progress achieved for gender equality with near half of her SRC consisting of women (48%).

These successes are all the more significant, since this is the 4th year of elections under newly adopted SRC constitutions that allow for broader participation of diverse student constituencies in student governance.

This means that the crucial 3-year mark to test a new approach and method in governance and elections was not only successfully reached, but also in its 4th year shows the constitution as one that sustains its impact to deepen democracy and citizenship among our 30,000-strong student body.

“The results of the SRC elections across campuses show that our students are not only ready to lead our campus communities on issues relating to justice, freedom and democracy beyond our societal legacies of race and gender, but do so also for the student movement nationally. We’re immensely proud of our students, who show courage and resilience to choose leaders not for expediency, but for significance, and to lead not for some, but for all”, the Dean of Student Affairs, Rudi Buys, said.

The Qwaqwa SRC was installed on 2 September 2014, while the Bloemfontein SRC will be installed on 5 September. The Central SRC will be established on 14 September by joint sitting of the two SRCs.

The SRC members 2014/15 at the Bloemfontein and Qwaqwa Campuses are as follows:

Bloemfontein Elective portfolios:
President: Ms Mosa Leteane
Vice Pres: Mr Waldo Staude
Secretary: Ms Dineo Motaung
Treasurer: Ms Maphenye Maditsi
Arts & Culture: Mr Stefan van der Westhuizen
Accessibility & Student Support: Ms Louzanne Coetzee
First Generation Students: Ms Mpho Khati
Media, Marketing & Liaison: Ms Lethabo Maebana
Legal & Constitutional Affairs: Mr Lindokuhle Ntuli
Sport: Ms Dominique de Gouveia
Student development & Environmental Affairs: Mr Victor Ngubeni
Transformation: Mr Tumelo Rapitsi

Bloemfontein Ex officio Portfolios
Dialogue & Ex officio: Associations Student Council: Mr Piet Thibane
Academic Affairs & Ex officio: Academic Affairs Student Council: Mr Jonathan Ruwanika
Residence Affairs & Ex officio: Campus Residences Student Council: Ms Melissa Taljaard
City student Affairs & Ex officio: Commuter Student Council: Ms Kerry-Beth Berry
Post graduate Affairs & Ex officio: Post Graduate Student Council: Ms Masabata Mokgesi
International Affairs & Ex officio: International Student Council: Mr Makate Maieane
Student Media Affairs & Ex officio: Student Media Council: Mr Samuel Phuti
RAG Community Service & Ex officio: RAG Fundraising Council: Mr Johan du Plessis
RAG Community Service & Ex officio: RAG Community Service Council: Mr Manfred Titus

Qwaqwa Elective portfolios:
President General: Mr Thulasizwe Sithole
Deputy President: Ms Zethu Mhlongo
Secretary General: Mr Vukani Ntuli
Treasurer General: Mr Langelihle Mbense
Media & Publicity: Ms Nongcebo Qwabe
Politics & Transformation: Ms Nkosiphile Zwane

Qwaqwa Ex officio Portfolios
Student Development & Environmental Affairs: Mr Ndumiso Memela
Academic Affairs: Mr Simon Mofekeng
Arts & Cultural Affairs: Ms Samkelo Mtshali
Off-Campus Students: Mr Khanyisani Mbatha
RAG, Community Service & Dialogue: Mr Njabulo Mabaso
Religious Affairs: Mr Mfundo Nxumalo
Residence & Catering Affairs: Ms Ntombifuthi Radebe
Sports Council: Mr Luvuno

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