Latest News Archive

Please select Category, Year, and then Month to display items

Prof Abdon Atangana develops new concept to test Ebola waves

05 September 2022 | Story Andrè Damons | Photo Andrè Damons

With a new outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported this year in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the 14th EVD outbreak in the country – researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) introduced a new concept that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. They believe the focus should be to identify the source or the hosts of this virus for it to be a complete eradication.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an outbreak of Ebola in Mbandaka health zone, Equateur Province on April 23, 2022. EVD, formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness affecting humans and other primates. The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals (such as fruit bats, porcupines and non-human primates) and then spreads in the human population through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Prof Abdon Atangana, Professor of Applied Mathematics in the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS), says existing mathematical models are used to first fit collected data and then predict future events. Predictions help lawmakers to take decisions that will help protect their citizens and their environments. The outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases have exposed the weakness of these models as they failed to predict the number of waves and in several instances; they failed to predict accurately day-to-day new infections, daily deaths and recoveries.

Solving the challenges of the current models

In the case of COVID-19 in South Africa, it is predicted that the country had far more infections than what was recorded, which is due to challenges faced by the medical facilities, poverty, inequality, and other factors. With Ebola in the DRC, data recorded are not far from reality due to the nature of the virus and its symptoms. However, the predictions show although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spread, they will still face some challenges in the future, as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact.

“To solve the challenges with the current models, we suggested a new methodology. We suggested that each class should be divided into two subclasses (Detected and undetected) and we also suggested that rates of infection, recovery, death and vaccination classes should be a function of time not constant as suggested previously. These rates are obtained from what we called daily indicator functions. For example, an infection rate should be obtained from recorded data with the addition of an uncertain function that represents non-recorded data (Here more work is still to be done to get a better approximation).

“I introduced a new concept called strength number that can be used to test whether the spread will have one or several waves. The strength number is an accelerative force that helps to provide speed changes, thus if this number is less than zero we have deceleration, meaning there will be a decline in the number of infections. If the number is positive, we have acceleration, meaning we will have an increase in numbers. If the number is zero, the current situation will remain the same,” according to Prof Atangana.

To provide better prediction, he continues, reliable data are first fitted with the suggested mathematical model. This helps them to know if their mathematical model is replicating the dynamic process of the spread. The next step is to predict future events, to do this, we create three sub-daily indicator functions (minimum, actual, and maximum). These will lead to three systems, the first system represents the worst-case scenario, the second is the actual scenario, and the last is a best-case scenario.

Virus will continue to spread but with less impact

Using this method, Prof Atangana, a highly cited mathematician for the years 2019-2021, says he and Dr Seda Igret Araz, postdoctoral student, were able to predict that, although some measures have been put in place in DRC and other places where the Ebola virus spreads, they will still face some challenges in the future as the virus will continue to spread but may have less impact.

To properly achieve the conversion from observed facts into mathematical formulations and to address these limitations, he had to ask fundamental questions such as what is the rate of infection, what is the strength of the infection, what are the crossover patterns presented by the spread, how can day-to-day new infected numbers be predicted and what differential operator should be used to model a dynamic process followed by the spread?

This approach was tested for several infectious diseases where we present the case of Ebola in Congo and Covid-19 in South Africa.

News Archive

UFS receives R13,7 Million for Research into Prehistoric Organisms

2007-03-27

Some of the guests attending the launch of the research contract are: Dr Siyabulela Ntutela (Deputy Director: Biotechnology at the Department of Science and Technology), Dr Godfrey Netswera (Manager of Thuthuka and the Support Programme at the National Research Foundation (NRF)), Dr Esta van Heerden (Platform Manager and lecturer at the Department of Microbial, Biochemical and Food Biotechnology at the UFS), Mr Butana Mboniswa (Chief Executive Officer of BioPAD), and Mr Vuyisele Phehani (Portfolio Manager for BioPAD).
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

The University of the Free State (UFS) has been awarded a massive R13,7 million contract to conduct research into prehistoric micro-organisms which live under extreme conditions, for example in mineshafts.

This is one of the biggest research contracts awarded to the UFS in recent years.

The biotechnology research contract was awarded to the UFS by BioPAD, a South African biotechnology company that brokers partnerships between researchers, entrepreneurs, business, government and other stakeholders to promote innovation and create sustainable biotechnology businesses.

The project is endorsed by the Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation (NRF), which contributes to the bursaries of the 17 postgraduate students on the programme.

The contract involves the establishment of a Platform for Metagenomics - a technique which allows researchers to extract the DNA from microbes in their natural environment and investigate it in a laboratory.

“Through this platform we will be able to understand deepmine microbial populations
and their potential application in the search for life in outer space. It is most likely
that, if life were to be found on other planets in our solar system, it would probably
resemble that which existed millions of years ago on earth. Apart from all this, these
organisms have unique properties one can exploit in biotechnological application for
South Africa and its community,” said Dr Esta van Heerden, platform manager and
lecturer at the UFS Department of Microbial, Biochemical and Food Biotechnology.
She is assisted by her collegues, Prof. Derek Litthauer and Dr Lizelle Piater.

“The platform aims to tap into the unique genetic material in South African mines
which will lead to the discovery of new genes and their products. These new and unique products will find application in the medical field (anti-cancer, anti-bacterial en anti-viral cures), the industrial sector (nanotechnology, commercial washing agents and the food industry), environmental sector (pollution management, demolition of harmful metals and other toxic waste),” said Dr Van Heerden.

According to Dr Van Heerden, the Metagenomics Platforms stems from the Life in
Extreme Environments (LExEN) programme which was started in 1994 by Princeton
University in the United States of America (USA) in South African mines with grants
from among others the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and
the National Science Foundation (NSF) in the USA. Other international collaborators
on the project include Geosynec Consultants Inc. (USA), Oak Ridge National
Laboratory (USA), the University of Tennessee (USA) and in South Africa the
Universities of the Witwatersrand, North West and Limpopo and companies like BHP
Billiton, MINTEK and mining companies like Harmony, Gold Fields and AngloGold
Ashanti.

The research field laboratory of the Metagenomics Platform, which was situated in
Glen Harvey, was moved to the Main Campus of the UFS in Bloemfontein. “In this
way the university has become the central hub for all research programmes. We are
also the liaison between the LExEN programme and the various mining companies
involved,” said Dr Van Heerden. The new laboratory was introduced during the
launch of the research contract.

“Our decision to commit BioPAD to this project stems from the company’s commitment to advance human capacity development to strengthen South Africa’s research infrastructure. It is also part of our aim to create and protect intellectual property,” said Mr Butana Mboniswa, Chief Executive Officer of BioPAD.

Talking on behalf of the UFS senior management, Prof. Teuns Verschoor, Vice-Rector
of Academic Operations, said that the university shares the excitement to be part of
the exploration of unknown forms of life, the discovery of new genes and
their products and in applying newly gained knowledge to better understand our
universe.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl@ufs.ac.za
27 March 2007

Back

Economic and Management Sciences

Education

Health Sciences

The Humanities

Law

Natural and Agricultural Sciences

Theology and Religion

Open Distance Learning

Business School

We use cookies to make interactions with our websites and services easy and meaningful. To better understand how they are used, read more about the UFS cookie policy. By continuing to use this site you are giving us your consent to do this.

Accept